Spare a thought gor the Channel Islands though - Arpege suggests a 9 hour period of gusts in excess of 100mph.

I imagine it's overcooking it however it's the strongest wind speeds I've seen modelled for the Southwest at this time scale for a good while.

https://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/harmonie/runs/2026010707/harmonieeur43-26-47-3.png?07-09 

Anyone know why the "cumulative snowy precipitation" totals on Harmoine show lower amounts than the "Snow depth" charts?  Normally the other way around with most models.  Makes me think they are just random nonsense.  

Yes looks like a significant event down there.

I don’t think it’s done as a batch, rather the updates are usually done at a similar time. So I would guess if the snow warning was going to change it would do so very shortly (or maybe they will wait until they had more clarity on the highest risk areas).

GFS 6z - light to moderate wet/marginal snow for 10-12 hours from 6pm, increasingly snow later

GEM 0z - heavier ppn to our south; period of light snow overnight

ECM HR 0z - heavier ppn to our south; light rain turning to light snow

Icon 6z - Misses this region, keeps us almost dry

UK MO 0z - heavier ppn to our south; on-off period of rain & hill snow

ECM AIFS 6z - mostly misses this region; just some light/patchy rain/sleet/snow

Arpege 6z - mostly misses this region; just some light/patchy rain/sleet/snow

AIGFS 6z - mostly misses this region; just some light/patchy rain/sleet/snow

UKV 6z - mostly misses this region; just some light/patchy rain

ECM 0z - mostly misses this region; just some light/patchy rain

.

Other models are also showing a similar thing.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/06_37_uk2mtmpsohd.png 

+10 to subzero in the space of about 60 or 70 miles.

https://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2026010706/51-173UK.GIF?07-6 

This is low level vorticity, its good for seeing where the fronts and features are. Anyway notice that vertically aligned stripe withy the strongest colours over Newcastle.

I really hope the air is going to be cold enough, because I can't think of anything worse than being stuck under a stationary front with pouring rain for the best part of 12 hours. I'm sure it will eventually turn to snow as the continental airmass digs in, but not much consolation if we end up with alot of really cold rain.

Clearly the latter as an amber warning for snow across parts of Wales and Midlands has now been issued in addition to the earlier one for wind in the SW

(southern edge of the amber snow warning runs straight through my house!)

The yellow warning studiously detours away from and around NW England.

9Z UKV doesn't seem to think so.  Icon 12Z (Yes 12Z!) doesn't either and shows South Midlands best.

I'm fairly confident it will. The scandi airmass starts to engage and we get a separate frontal system extending north. We also get orographic lift and some convective effects.

What I'm worried about is whether it will be snow. Elevation will of course help.

The potential for 100mph gusts is evident. What is uncertain is where?

A red warning in the offing if this output continues I'd imagine.

Edit - Arpege also has it further north by a similar margin.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon-d2.aspx 

Check out the latest ICON D2 (link in Brian’s post). 80mph gusts just 10 miles to you South now.

A further nudge North is conceivable and I still fear wind will be the headline.

My gut instinct is you will probably be okay. Again I don't think you have to worry about the precip, it will get that far north. And I think you are just far enough West to avoid most of the rain. If I had to guess I'd say a few inches of wet snow for you. Elevation matters though, I suspect the city centre won't see much at all.