ICON 6z shunts it all back south again and brings you (and me) right back in AGAIN.

My head is spinning 🥴 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ico&var=25&run=6&time=48&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

FAX - current troughs dispersing. By midday tomorrow, LP is 985mb S of Ireland pushing a warm sector up across Britain from the south (and don't forget its partner 988mb Rockall). At its deepest 971mb Midnight Thu/Fri near Dover and on to Holland midday Friday. By Sat the main LP has filled completely over C Europe, and the partner in Scotland is 1005mb Shetland. New LP threatening to simplify matters as it moves across Ireland with strong W-lies on its southern flank.

GFS Op - much the same as FAX until Mon 12th, when HP over N Scandinavia has developed 1030mb. Storm Goretti hasn't filled but is still active in the S Baltic and the LP off Ireland is being diverted N-wards. Winds are S-ly rather than W-ly until Thu15th when an LP moves down from the NW to sit squarely over Britain 990mb Sat 17th. The Scandi HP hangs on and strengthens enough to divert the next LP SE-wards to Biscay Tue 20th, and on to Corsica with E-lies developing for Britain (but nothing that cold over Europe to take advantage of).

ECM - Similar to GFS but by Sat 17th it's not that the HP has weakened, rather it has intensified 1055mb well east into Russia. Net consequence for Britain is the same, under a trough of LP, more elongated N-S than in GFS. The HP then moves back to Finland 1055mb Tue 20th with E/SE-ly winds for Britain. Some deep cold in this circulation but at this date hasn't left Kazakhstan!

AIFS - London, maxima 3 C to Sun, up to 10C Mon 12th and slowly dropping away aver the next 10 days. Rain on Fri, small amounts early net week. Edinburgh, temp profile like London but 2C cooler, rain heaviest Sun 11th     

GEFS - in the S heavy rain Fri 9th possibly preceded by snow as temp first peaks and then drops back to 6C below norm over the weekend. Mean temp then close to norm but with more cold outliers than yesterday, notably the control run 10C below norm for several days around the 18th. Rain in most ens members from Mon 12th onwards.  In the N, less of a peak in temp on the 9th, the control and several other outliers prolong cold weather after 14th dragging the mean down to below norm. Small amounts of pptn throughout, quite likely as snow for the first week.

We all love a naughty little high and it's always a good sign on the charts when the fish start swimming west 😀

Has anyone said "it's a nowcast situation" yet? 

Seriously I think the track is not settled yet. The low hasn't even formed yet. If you look at the satellite images it's currently marked by a band of cloud just north of the Azores...

Indeed - a number of ECM 0Z ensemble members still going of a week of ice days for Cambridge.

[/url][url=https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50592&model=ecm&var=5&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1]https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50592&model=ecm&var=5&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Rather like yesterday's ECM 12Z op. run.

Next two weeks it'll be eastwards westwards eastwards westwards westwards:)

Time for the Anadin

Hopefully one of those old school setups where the front gets pushed back West on Tuesday and temps are a lot lower than forecast. There is that potential. Very positive looking setup for cold for January. The high looks very strong and that would be a great test of cold is hard to shift.

The main thing seems to be that atlantic low being very slightly weaker. 

GEM 0z Several hours of moderate snow

UKV 6z Patchy snow for a few hours from fragmenting front

GFS 6z A few hours of moderate snow, turning to rain

ECM HR 0z A few hours of moderate snow, turning to rain

ECM AIFS 6z A few hours of moderate snow, turning to rain

UK MO 0z Rain - turns to snow from the Pennines eastwards

Icon 6z Rain - turns to snow from the Pennines eastwards

AIGFS 6z Rain

ECM 6z Rain

GFS defo going that way

As ever interesting stuff.  I have no idea whether it will be stormy and snowy or quiet and rainy tomorrow. I remember deep lows progged across the south that have barely moved a branch here...and unforecast ones that have fleft a trail of destruction.

The 12Z runs have indeed been disappointing. At least the ensembles keep open the possibility for now.

I've been here before, I think unfortunately the mild is probably going to win now. We need a big turnaround on the 18Zs

This is worth a watch and related to the models

Yeh that's a good run. It keeps us in the game just about. But we really need upgrades now. Things don't often change in a big way under that 120h mark.

Some good stuff there, and emphasising very low confidence for a week from now.

Coldies look at P39, at 8:30

To be fair, that's a superb video and explains perfectly just how uncertain things are. It's interesting to see the thoughts (earlier) are that the ECM and MetO ops this morning were too progressive with their breakdown. I was drawn to the 9% ECM cluster with a textbook easterly, but none of the clusters had more than a 12% chance of coming off... about as uncertain an outlook as you can get!

Interesting and a lot of uncertainty still, Sunday’s low pressure moving in could be the decider. But as often is the case milder weather often pushes the cold away like dominoes falling over.

However, if it stalls somewhere over the UK potentially some good battleground snow cold fall giving some significant acclamations. If this was to happen (although unlikely from my experience of modern winters) my guess would be it stalling over the East Midlands. If that were to happen and the cold pushes the milder weather back it could be game on for the rest of the week with battle ground events.