Bear in mind things aren't as you remember any more. My nearest station, Faversham, for example, had Jan/Feb average highs of 6.6 and 6.8 respectively in 61-90. The 91-20 averages? 7.9 and 8.4. The bell curve is now shifted significantly to the right, unfortunately, and climatological winter as we knew it effectively ends in mid-February now.

Still, we've another 6 weeks or so of potential, and I'll be hoping the models will make more of the Scandinavian High potential. 

Long before then, though, the winds look to be the main feature down here. Despite the MetO giving the significant winds aspect only a 20% chance in their article today, their text forecast now mentions potential gales, and the ICON/GEM/GFS and MetO outputs all feature very strong winds in the far SE to end the working week. I'll be hoping *that* changes, and at least it's still a fair way out.

EDIT: MetO article link for those who've not seen it yet:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/cold-spell-continues-with-further-snow-and-ice-warnings 

When was the last time we got a series of upgrades to a cold spell...

Rather than "an amazing run" followed by continued downgrades?

2018 here (the BFTE), and before that 2013, then before that the 2009/10 spells had their fair share of upgrades too. But aside from that? Slim pickings, and of course it's very much dependent on where you live!

yeh Id agree with that, very much the tide is working against you most of the time

Was thinking that myself Apege MF has a lot of snow showing after that low pulls east. It has been spot on for snow forecast in this area, best of the bunch. Suspect amber warnings again soon. Just what we need , more snow 😩

Seem no one take notice about tomorrow night festure or other events as today it all about this LP which I cannot be excited

even some touting Midlands being a sweet spot.  Seen it many times never came to fruition and seeing this 12z ensembles for here::

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

Hope to see the trend of getting colder at the end of the ensembles by next week to match what Brian posted the ECM charts, this is my realistic dream charts I like to happen for all of us in the UK to get fair amount of snow.

Lets just assume its wrong on the track and we get a classic channel low for one moment...  I do not recall a channel low of late that brought snow widely (probably 2010?) but "back in the day" a channel low in these conditions would most likely result in widespread snow south of the M4, so IF we get a scenario akin to a channel low it will be interesting to see what transpires.  My suspicion is that it would be rain anyway as the DPs and ambient temperatures would be the wrong side of marginal, part from places like Leith Hill.  Lets see.  Its the wind Im concerned about.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?ech=87&mode=52&map=0 

Gusts up to 140 KPH in the Dover Strait.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/sea-level-pressure/20260116-0000z.html 

At T+252 we have an old-school 1050hPa high with a ridge west over Scandinavia. Those easterlies are cold, too...

The Central Scotland snow shield at work once again 😅

WRF high res model also gives snow for the south on 12Z.

This link is useful but don’t paste live pictures

https://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

It is, although on the 18z, t240 chart, the Azores High looks like it's going to do it's best to spoil the dream set up.

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96.gif?04-12 

Gm similar to ecm

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0 

I think movement away from Fri Low  moving through England is diminishing as expected. I would have thought history has taught us that it will be even further south come the day.

Why can’t it be a couple of degrees colder?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?&ech=93&mode=33&carte=6 

Never in the last ten years with the possible exception of the "Beast"!

That all seems to give time to allow HP to develop properly over Scandi and gradually push westwards. 

Not an avenue the rest of the Ops take and synoptically there's a fair bit of difference at T168 as a result. UKMO is poised at T168 but needs the LP to head south or at least south east I would guess.

Looking at the GEFS there is very little support for the ECM op although member 4 evolves in much the same way and has a lengthy cold spell setting in. 

Possible Scandi based rainbow aside, Friday's LP positioning is maybe solidifying somewhat with more agreement on the Ops at least for a track that brings the core of the LP somewhere around the south coast rather than further north, with potential for coastal gales as a result. Main snow risk is a little early to pin down IMO until there's firm agreement on track - a quick look through MOGREPS suggests decent support for the LP to be a touch further south, GEFS are mixed with a real mess of further north, little LP development and LP further south. On that basis whilst you'd expect the ops to be best at this range, some further small shifts wouldn't be a surprise and could potentially make the difference between snow or rain. 

Very tricky this one Dave opp has around 20% support in the clusters others are further south or north.

looking around through rather odd ec dp seem a little high even on a favourable track.

gfs through is also interesting because DP hold up well oddly in phases i suspect this may be due to heavy pulses of wintry mix bringing the freezing level down helping things as suggested by Peter last night perhaps gfs models this parameter better.

Very interesting indeed all round.

And 19mm for me. What I don’t know with the Apple app is whether it’s calling 19mm of sleet or just hedging its bets. It loves a bit of wintry mixology (that said it is now by far the best weather app, no point using any of the third party ones anymore). 

I'd be shocked if Scandi won. That's a 2015 Leicester winning the league result by winter standards 

Using UKV it's frosty ahead of the front after a cold day so the ground will still be frozen (it's solid at the mo):-

Rain arrives in the early hours with temps around 4c:-

All looks primed for that to freeze on contact with the ground I'd have thought and given it's a narrow band it might even not get washed away. Last time I really remember that happening was a spell of rain after a week or so of cold frosty weather - temps was around 5-6c IRRC with moderate to heavy rain and I assumed cycling to work would be fine as any frost and ice would have melted off. All was going swimmingly until I got to a footbridge/bridle path over a bypass and the rain had coated it with a couple of mm of ice and I predictably stacked.

Not as exciting as scrutinising how many hours of cold rain and snow/rain mix I might experience on Friday (🤪) but interesting in a 'doesn't happen often' way although not sure I can be bothered to wander around the garden at 2-3am to see if it's happening or not!