It's striking how both the 0Z GFS and ECMWF ops have gone for developing a Scandi high out in FI, even if they aren't supported by their ensembles.

It's like I said before,  GFS 06z runs seems to be the most progressive in terms of showing Atlantic developments in FI range. A bit like waking up with hangover from 18z pub run. 

GFS op run is still a bit too far north for the south coast, some transient snow but little settling.

P12 from the GEFS on the other hand is a bullseye.

My own gut feeling is that it will end up in France and we get a Scandi high the following week 🙂

I think there is a genuine chance that might be the end result. It is definitely an east b west battle (not necessarily in the classic snowfest way but in the “which will win out” way). I think the outlook is extremely messy at the moment and until we get a clear consistent trend any scenario is possible including the one you mention, and of course mild westerly weather.

GFS op run ends up with westerly weather but certainly not mild... snow in the south and -6C uppers on an Atlantic gale? I somehow doubt it. And only a 75mb difference in pressure to the north of the UK from the previous run!

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2026010506/iconeu_uk1-42-87-0.png?05-09 

ECM ens set for London is  less keen on chilly in the longer term although it's a bit hard to tell with the usual zonal noise of mild and cold sectors moving through. There's only a weak signal for very mild stuff deeper in FI according to the T2M temps at least, caveated with that's day time temps and in the absence of colder nights the average temp anomaly would be strongly positive even if day times temps aren't much more than normal. 

There remains a weak signal for a Scandi HP to influence our weather a bit more directly but I'd put that as a fair bit less likely than milder than average weather at the mo. Not something that can be completely discounted as it's been persistently present for a while but rather unlikely as it stands sadly. 

Re Friday's LP I can't make my mind up whether it'll produce more than wind or rain, probably not helped by it being a realistic possibility of it either being centred over the French coast or through the middle of the UK (or anywhere between).  Looking at the GFS 6z op, it's generally milder ahead of the LP than ECM 00z op, with Thursday's front lifting the surface, uppers and DPs a fair bit in the far south, so that the follow up LP isn't really bumping in to cold air until it gets a fair bit further North of me and the southern coastal counties generally. ECM is a lot closer to being favourable, with Thursdays front dying as it moves east and not having such an impact on the temps etc. 

Overall for MBY I think maybe the rain will turn to a wintry mix for a time as the LP starts to pull away and colder air is drawn in but any temporary accumulations are only likely further north and with height (depending of course on the track). Given past experience I'd not be surprised if track remains uncertain until 36 hours or so beforehand - I definitely wouldn't want to be tasked with giving a week ahead forecast at the moment!

Arpege 6Z also has the low further south but it's a messy mix of rain, sleet and snow.

ECM 6Z... well, we can dream, 40cm across the North Downs.

I'll just have to settle for 15cm lol.

That run is a bit of a worry for here. It may rain for a while, but areas just inland look like getting up another foot of snow in the next 2-3 days.

You can look at real time satellite images on various sites. I use Zoom Earth. 

But out of all those variations not a single one has any lying snow across the far south from that system!

Heights are higher in all the places we want out west, while the cold feed from Scandinavia is much closer. There are also upgrades in the short term that I've mentioned in the short term thread. 

It is ... giving a good dump of snow to the Midlands and even a bit of back-edge stuff further south, albeit not settling.

There seems to be a trend for the storm to push through quicker too - it has cleared the SE by about 9am on Friday on this run.

ARPEGE 12Z has a bit of snow for the south but the bulk of the precipitation arrives on Thursday in the form of rain (with some wet snow north of the Wash) 

GFS 12Z hits the Midlands too, with a bit of back-edge snow further south - similar to ICON

Certainly is in terms of winds, unfortunately - it has 60+mph gusts here on Friday!

Yeh its really complicated. That LP moving up from the south on Friday will be important in determining what happens during the weekend and onwards wrg to any easterly feed that tries to setup. And we won't know much about that until Thursday.