The midday temps are fun because they're cold and Scotland has a -13c:-

Using the op run and T2M temps it appears to be a cold run until 11th Jan down here, when milder air sweeps in with it then staying mild IMBY until around 16th Jan when it cools down to a bit below the average. The op is towards the bottom of the ens spread for the cooldown from 16th Jan although at that point the majority of members appear to be average to a touch below. 

Looking at the GEFS and ECM ens (again IMBY) there's decent agreement on both that it's generally cold or chilly to 11th when it warms to above average (looking T2M temp wise). Thereafter it appears reasonably similar to ECM with a decent cluster around or a touch below average from around 14th Jan. 

I suspect unless we get a correction south on the initial LPs I'm unlikely to be see more than a rain/snow mix now but that's fairly typical IMBY. 

I've not looked outside of IMBY particularly but a quick glance at the GEFS for Scotland looks fairly consistent with earlier sets and 850 temps below the LTA are favoured mid to long term.

UKV has a bit of snow heading south overnight. Next lot seems to be rain in the SE though. 

Meanwhile 18Z GFS is pretty hopeless for Friday’s low but shows some trough disruption later on with very cold air to the NE. 

This is one of the much discussed creases or polar lows,  a common phenomenon with an Arctic flow like this, and yes it is already snowing from it and heading south. A few years ago - well a decade or more now, this feature could have been missed. This will be proper snow - deep frozen and fluffy, the real deal, and massively preferable to the later slush fest forecast for Friday. Having said that - this storm mirrors one in 1938 (will have to check my book to be certain - might have been 32) when a similar set up deposited a meter of snow at Exning just north of Newmarket! The same feature started as rain and continued such in Sussex - where rivers burst their banks, but north of the M4 - it was a memorable snow event, but just as short lived as this one.  We must remember that this Arctic blast is truly exceptional for these times and enjoy every hour of it- it was astonishingly pleasant walking the dogs this afternoon - frost still hard  and the ground freeze dried - rustling leaves and bright sunshine. A centimetre of snow tomorrow will be the icing on the cake, although the heavy snow showers of Friday, featured on Look East with some wonderfully wintry scenes towards the east coast, which put the dandruff scatter I had to shame!! 

The MetO raw has 20 to 26 winds at the same time.

Wednesday morning could be "fun" too, with heavy rain at 4C falling on frozen surfaces - the ground has been frozen solid for a couple of days now. Both GFS and MetO show the same for that one, it's only afterwards when things diverge somewhat.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&mode=0&code=24 

Number 24 is today's standout - a Channel low bringing 4 inches of snow here, with low 850s persisting all the way out to 192. It has next to no support for that, but hey - it's fun to look at!

We have heavy rain at 4 C tomorrow then colder and drier until less cold at the weekend

GFS 00Z then has coldish zonality here until next Friday 16th then low pressure slips south and high pressure builds to the NE and N resulting in a spell of easterlies

ECM 00Z also looks promising for Scandy High development at 240

Doesn't look like the next 10 days will be overly mild with snow still possible on northern hills

Let's hope I do better for snow later in the month!

The EC goes on to build that high to levels we've not seen in a long time - but with the UK right on the edge of it all, as the Azores High remains nearby. It's still nice to see, anyway, and in a way is an echo of the old Scandi-Greenland-Scandi ping-pong of old.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/sea-level-pressure/20260118-0000z.html 

UKV 03Z takes Friday’s low way further north meaning it is basically a washout for most of England.

Having said that the latest runs from both ARPEGE and especially ICON give hope to the southerners!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/icon/00_105_ukpreciptype.png 

Still big differences in models - MetO has 6-9C in S England and heavy rain

Yes the UKV chart for the same time is rather different! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_102_rain_rate.png 

What a fun week to be a forecaster. 

GFS Op - On Friday the storm is further S and deeper, 965mb Cornwall crossing S England and dragging cold air further south. But it moves on and the next LP is off N Scotland 960mb Mon 12th with NW-lies. However, these drive a new LP towards the south 980mb Brittany Wed 14th, followed by slack LP over Britain. Pressure then rises slowly over or near Scandinavia and by Wed 21st it has grown to 1035mb N Norway with some fairly cold NE-lies.

ECM - the weekend storm is 985mb N France but not dragging cold air into the mix. Immediate aftermath is similar but then no LP in Brittany Wed 14th, instead HP grows from the south and links up with that developing over Scandinavia. Britain is under a ridge for a while, but a powerful Scandi HP sets up 1040mb Tue 20th with colder and more direct E-lies for Britain.

GEM - has the weekend storm as a Channel runner on Fri, not extremely cold, but follows that up with a larger LP 955mb Faeroes Tue 13th dominating with cold NW-lies for all of Britain - no development of either HP or LP in the S.

AIFS - London, maxima 2-3C to Sat 10th but little pptn (no big snow dump?) then 10C slowly dropping back to 3C Mon 19th, occasional rain. Edinburgh, much the same. a little wetter.

GEFS - temps down-up-down at first, but mean settling to norm from Mon 12th with fair ens agreement, rain from Wed 7th and heaviest in the first week. Snow row figures for the first week limited in the south, rising above 50% north of Birmingham and 75% for lowland Scotland, smaller after that but probably cold enough for hill snow at any time

Looks very similar to ECM AI's solution yesterday evening. 

Will this happen since it ECM more reliable and leading better than GFS?  Those maxes in my area of -3 to -4C is my biggest dream to see this and starting to go subzero on Jan 16th which is my birthday.    00z ensemblers show up to -5C uppers tomorrow with further snow chance so hope Stoke stay away and stop robbing us snow in this current spell.

At this range the differences in reliability are negligible. It could happen. It probably won't. 

Yeah I've been wondering the same. GFS 06z has the Friday Low over my location. Not sure it'll be cold enough at this stage.