https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=25&run=12&time=186&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/87/7736/ukmo_1_168oqu0.png 

High stakes, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if come the day the low is hundreds of miles away instead.

UK Met looks mostly rain according to the ppt variable.

Poor runs? Which charts have you been looking at? Some of the most interesting winter charts we've seen for a long while today!

Which version? They’re all different so far.

Interesting, not what I'd have expected given the 850s and direction of flow.

The dewpoint charts (via MC, don't think they've rendered yet on TWO?) show what's happened - the lower boundary layer's cold has been shunted away a long way eastwards in the 24 hours before the low arrives, meaning it's rain rather than snow for most. 

All moot, of course, as it's ages away, but it'd be disappointing (from a snow fan's POV) if it were to happen as shown. 

Liking most of the models this evening but GFS control is favoured IMBY.

Beast, have you been on the Mogadon again?

It's quite amusing, if you looked at the GEM and UKMO and had to pick one that would snow IMBY, it wouldn't be GEM and yet that's the one that does (albeit temporarily before it rains and then it's back to snow again as the LP starts to pull away). 

Unlikely to verify as shown anyway as you mention but nothing so far this evening is making me rethink my stance that there's a decent chance of disruptive snow for somewhere post the clean northerly phase. The ops are largely suggesting it'll be a touch further north of us (shocker) but interesting viewing nonetheless.  (The ens this morning offered much more encouragement for those further south, I'd not be surprised if they did again this evening). 

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/significant-weather/20260109-0000z.html 

There's yet another frontal system crossing the UK around 228, with more sleet/snow on its leading edge.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/significant-weather/20260112-0000z.html 

A very messy picture from the models this evening, I wouldn't want to have to produce a forecast for the latter half of the working week!

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20260112-1200z.html 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/ecm.jpg 

My opinion on it hasn't changed but the pattern matching version is fun too:-

Snow/rain moves down the country 6th and 7th (mostly snow in our neck of the woods).

A big rain/snow event on 9th Jan - rain to snow to rain for us, stays as snow for parts of northern England and Scotland.

Another rain/snow event on the 11th - rain down here, snow for northern England and Scotland (may show it turning back to rain, bit unclear).

Another rain/snow event on the 14th, snow for parts of Scotland, rain elsewhere. 

Another rain/snow event on the 17th, this time for Wales and parts of the Midlands. (Rain for us). 

The modelling manages to keep enough cold air to the north and east of the UK that the LPs tap in to it and/or drag it back over parts of the UK ready for the next LP. 

Mostly in FI etc. but again, shows the potential in the setup providing the LP track doesn't just bathe the UK in mild air. 

i Just in the darker blue line as I am NE of Birmingham.  I wonder why the SW to far South got nothing when France all covered? If so SW should be also dark blue as well.  12z ensembles for Nuneaton still showing cold and slight spikes Sunday evening but I cannot be excited anymore after last night failure to deliver decent covering of 5cm or more.  I mainly after subzero day temps and snowy events, not sunny and dry with less cold day temps.

So, I wouldn't be surprised to see a southerly adjustment as we go on. 

However, the Christmas day weather feature came from the east and spun south, would the features modelled from the west spin more north? Is this Coriolis in action?

Cheers all.

Worth mentioning there's very little sign of a dartboard LP in the ens, so the GFS op is a bit isolated around the 9th.

MOGREPs set suggests a greater chance of LPs being further north than has maybe been shown over the last few runs, with a peak in 850s to 2-3c around the 8th, a few dissenters keeping it cooler, before better agreement for chilly air from there but not universal agreement and some further milder peaks:-

Fairly finely balanced I'd have said but some sort of snow events as LPs move in seems likely, location TBC but as it stands could be anywhere from the South Coast to the Highlands!

Edit: ECM extended is interesting. It's not so much because it's wintry more that's it's generally chilly IMBY or cold/very cold for Scotland. Finishes with a blocking HP over Scandi with some deep cold air which is crawling towards the NE as LP over the UK slowly sinks south. (It won't look like that on tomorrow's run but it's a nice set of pixels and looks poised to get colder). 

The ECM ens are okay but more signs of LPs tracking far enough north in the longer term for 850s to warm down here, it's a generally cold set though for Scotland. T2M temps are generally a bit lower than the 850s might suggest down here.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/new-stratospheric-warming-january-2026-polar-vortex-disruption-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=18&time=105&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=18&time=111&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref