Yes, I'll take the control run please. Classic Channel low.

I think beyond Sunday we are in high risk / high reward territory. While deep cold is lovely - it is usually dry. 

Lets no forget, if we go with risky, we could get snow and will be bitterly cold none the less. The next 7-10 days remain very interesting. 

Thankfully an outlier in the 06z GFS ensembles, so not worth losing sleep over it for now. 

Interesting comment - I would have thought that the models start with the current data points horizontally and vertically and they are what they are (inclusive of climate change) and project the "fluid dynamics" into the future. Not sure why history comes into it other that for manual intervention to correct known deficiencies

When looking at archived charts of classic snow events I am always struck by how high the 850mb temperatures were. Often well above -5C and sometimes barely below zero. Of course in those days we didn't have the superheated surface temps we have now...

... some people have interpreted them thus but not me! I am expecting some upcoming severe frosts based on model ensembles of -10C or -11C which is pretty unusual in the last few years. 😀

I wasn't being serious or speaking with my Scientist's hat on - more the sod's law hat 😂

Some reasonable snow row numbers too. Can't help wondering if later runs will extend the cold further, bearing in mind 'foreseeable future' comments on the Beeb forecasts, although thinking on Brian's comment earlier, that phrase could mean anything from a day upwards.

Yes, I posted yesterday that even at 24 hours out, the ECM ensemble spread had snow as far east as East Anglia on one extreme to barely getting across Wales at the other.  

It happens with rain as well as snow; I don’t trust even the high res models to get it right.

From my experience, widespread snow events in this country ( whereby tens of millions are affected)  Occur when 850s are nothing that amazing. 

Its just welcoming to have something different to the endless above average months which occur forever and a day now 

Little LPs wandering around in cold air and with any luck the tight little LP just north of the Azores will head due east. 

Edit:- 

Yup, zips east, could potentially be a stereotypical channel low:-

Ends with chilly to cold air countrywide with a little feature over Scotland and the air generally coming down from somewhere to the North. Cracking little run. 

Lets see if any change to UKMO

ICON is superb if it's snow you're after - and unlike the 0z there's snow south of the M4.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/39/3442/icon_16_168qxn6.png 

Arguably a 'jackpot' chart given the snow distribution for the UK and it doesn't look like going mild quickly from the T180 chart.

Obviously needs to be viewed as being 'just' ICON and FI at that but it's still nice to look at!

We'll need the intermediate frames (coming soonish), but it looks like we've the jet running ESE'wards in our part of the world - look how the warm sector at 120 ends up over southern France/northern Italy by 144.

It's a similar play to the ICON, just warmer. 

We've seen this before, of course, with the jet ending up less skewed (i.e. more west-east aligned) and further north come the day, but not exclusively so. It's also what drives Channel Lows, one of the holy grails for snow in the south - you need the jet nearby to carry the low and deepen it, but not so close that you end up with the lows moving anywhere north of east. Tricky, interesting, and something we really can't predict even now with all our technology!

If it does its usual "move everything south nearer the time" then it could be game on!