Of course there are exceptions but they are the '1 per generation' style spells. Putting aside severe spells, a 10 day cold spell is good going in most past winters

Doesn't mean there won't be another 10 dayer in the same season 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?chartname=ecmwfenspreciprate&chartlocation=london 

Definitely encouraging signs for cold sticking around for longer today IMO but need the signal to be maintained for a few runs and ideally for GEFS to start showing less mild scatter. More runs needed for me but continues the interesting model viewing and I'll enjoy (sort of) looking round the Scottish webcams for tomorrow, to remind myself what proper convective snowfall looks like. 

Maybe slightly the wrong thread but there's been a few hints across the output that a few wintry showers might make it to MBY even if tomorrow's little feature doesn't do so (which appears the likely outcome again). I'm a bit sceptical given unless the feed carries stuff in from the north sea, showers in N/NW flows invariably fizzle well before me but you never know I guess. GEFS for example has a snow row for London of 9 around the 5th Jan, GEM I think had some precip around then too and UKMO brought something (UKV didn't). Amounts would be minimal in any event but if the mid term colder stuff vanishes again, minimal might be as good as it gets!

@+384z where is the PV? shrinking in size over NE Canada /SW Greenland, whilst the warming moves into the N. Pole if we could go on another couple of days!??

Again only one model and one run but could be a sign of things to come!?

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=258&mode=0&carte=1 

Then plays another low and develops a easterly with hints of pressure responding over at Scadi 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=270&mode=0&carte=1 

Then Scadi responds and appears it’s up for a fight

A modern mother battle of Dec 81 breaks out

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=294&mode=0&carte=1 

Very wintry first of Jan if 18 gfs is to believed which I don’t  but certainly a extension of cold

Yes although will be interesting to see where the GFS pub run sits with it's ENS members!?

Isn't it just! 30% chance in a time-slot on the 8th. That's my threshold for getting interested.

Definitely an upward trend to normal or even slightly above 

Well it sits at the bottom end after Jan 9th and it is a poor set of ensembles with most perts above average but the spread is still large. But I wouldn't worry too much, we've got a week of definite cold with uncertainty regarding snow and the 12z ECM, especially the AI are much more promising.

Is this new blonde model - NOGAPS! 

Seems to be making us spunk every time.  Seems like it is feeding us what we want to see. One of the many dangers of AI

That aside the ensemble sets look quite consistent with previous runs.

Variations on a theme for me this morning - cold now and until around 8th Jan, then chilly and unsettled with you more likely to be in colder air the further north you go. Still a signal for things to turn more average to mild down here deeper in FI on the GEFS but still enough cold or chilly members to suggest it's not a guarantee. 

The ECM op is a tweak away from being a very snowy run and even as it stands has it's moments for some. It'd be transient presumably but this is a daft chart:-

MOGREPS look decent for cold to stick around until somewhere between 7th and 9th Jan at least and there's strong clustering around -3 to -7 or so at the end of the run, suggesting cold air is likely to be hanging around. There's a few snow falling spikes to, suggesting at least some wintriness at times although no lying snow according the snow depth chart:-

There's also still some signals in the models for some precip IMBY around 05/01, so another little point of interest in what would otherwise be a generally dry but very cold interlude. 

JFF and very much not an IMBY chart for obvious reasons but the UKV snow depth chart at T120 is entertaining:-

I'd imagine we'll see more swings given the mid term pattern rather hinges on LP intensity, track, jet intensity etc. but I'd still not be surprised to see the post clean northerly phase bring some temporary but disruptive snowfall to some. Before then there's plenty of interest for the areas signalled to receive convection, with swings in steering winds bringing different coastal areas in to the snow zones. 

GFS Op treats the LP on the 6th as a minor trough and goes back to a W-ly until Fri 9th when LP 995mb travels along the Channel, strong winds to the south, colder air to the north not getting further south than the Midlands to start with. Then a messy period with small LPs crossing Britain, cold but not very cold, 1000mb through the N Sea Sun 11th, 990mb E Anglia Mon 12th, before deep LP mid-north-Atlantic pumps up mild air on strong SW-lies to Sun 18th

ECM follows GFS but the LP Fri 9th is deeper and has a secondary centre 985mb Faeroes; the cold air penetrates further south. Only one follow-up LP but which takes a similar track, has reached 975mb SW Ireland Mon 12th

GEM by comparison with GFS puts a bit more depth into the LP 6th but that on Fri 9th is a flabby affair 1005mb for all of Britain, as is that on Mon 12th where (like ECM) it's still near W Ireland and bringing milder S-lies.

AIFS has recovered from its extreme prolonged cold prediction of yesterday. London, maxima 0-2C to Wed 7th,  dry, then variable between 3-6C  to Fri 16th with a little rain at first. Edinburgh, stays colder with mostly  ice days to Tue 13th (mild pulse Thu 8th), 2-3C after 13th; light rain Thu 8th and Tue 13th as the (just) milder air comes in.

GEFS in the S has a gradual increase in mean temp from very cold (8C below norm) Sun 4th to norm by Thu 15th with ens support dispersed after Thu 8th (just a few very cold outliers but most ens members above mean). Rain at some time in most ens members (esp SW)  from Thu 8th, perhaps a snow shower in E Anglia or Cornwall before that. In the N, similar mean  temp profile but ens members more evenly balanced either side of the mean, definitely snow at first for the NE, otherwise drier there than for the S.

ECM 0z on Wetterzentrale but only out to T+240, notT+384 as usual

Aberdeen’s ensembles are a bit off from the reality as it mixes in the temperatures over the sea so I tend to use the Dyce (Aberdeen airport) ones as they are much more representative from experience. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50110&var=202&run=0&date=2026-01-02&model=ecm&member=ENS&bw=1