1. Traffic increases as people start to pay more attention.

2. Traffic reaches a first peak.

3. The models begin to show a shorter cold spell, and traffic starts to dip.

4. The cold spell arrives and, if snow is in the forecast, traffic increases again to reach a second brief peak.

I think there are two distinct aspects to this. Firstly, for many people the anticipation of a long cold spell is what excites them. As soon as the models start to show the end of the cold spell firming up, even though it hasn’t yet started, traffic begins to wane. That is where we are today.

The second peak is like a sugar rush: it arrives and departs very quickly. People get an initial thrill from the snow, but then, for many (aside from the hard-core), the enthusiasm starts to fade.

Longterm members such as myself have become cynical and get less excited.

Very much like England at football.

Does it affect your day when there is a downgrade after lots of promise? 

Does it lift your day when there is prospects of a cold wintry spell? 

Superstitions, do people have them? Such as the polar bears on the homepage and it killing the prospect of a cold spell? 

I know when it comes to a cold or wintry spell with model watching I avoid telling anyone about the prospects as so often it’s a let down or never materialises.  

1) I get a bit down every December when it becomes clear we're not getting another 2009 or 2010. I've got such clear memories of those, with the child-like excitement each gave me. I'm almost 54 and know I've less Xmases left than I've already had, so each December with sh*te weather* and I get a little more desperate. My eldest was born in 2003 so remembers 09 and 10 pretty well; my youngest was born three and half years on so can't remember at all, which is a huge shame as she loves the snow.

2) More generally, I also yearn for a proper cataclysmic snowfall event - I'm talking unprecedented depths from falls lasting days. I love the whole drama of it all and knowing I have to battle some adversity. Again, I can't shake the sense that I'm running out of winters.

3) In the early days of TWO, I got a [deserved] reputation with friends and family for calling cold and snowy spells that didn't happen. So I only go for it nopw when I'm almost 100%. Problem is, they've already heard it from various sources already and asume I'm just jumping on the bandwagon.

* yes, I know shi*te weather in december in the norm

Not much to add from me Brian, except "keep the polar bears off the Home Page" 😅😅😅

    Enthusiasm

    Disillusionment

    Panic and hysteria

    Search for the guilty

    Punishment of the innocent

    Praise and honour for the non-participants

A quote said today elsewhere but on many occasions previously too is something  along the lines of "2 days ago it was looking like a week long cold spell  at least , now it's 3 days"

There is sometimes an assumption that if the start of a cold spell is 96 hours away then the whole spell is locked down. But the conclusion that day 7 of the cold spell is nailed down, 268 hours away (96 plus 168) , made on a cherry picked chart is going to lead to disappointment . It can and will only go downhill from that point .

We do see what we want to see in the models. E.g I saw GFS snowfall for Friday here, but no other model really showed it this far NE. Now it's disappeared in line with the other models, but it was never a likely option , but disappointment all the same!  

Another example, Northerly charts  at range being described as stunning by people that live in Central Southern England.  I hate northerlies as 90% of the time they are dry inland, it does take something rare and special to deliver and just because the odd chart at extended range shows precip coming far inland , in reality not all charts showed this and we know from experience it is unlikely. 

I used to be far more involved with it all back in the day - back in the 90s just having access to the MRF etc was magical, plus I was only a youngster - full of optimism and hope, and of course when I first went online (in 1995 at school, 1996 at home) we still had classic cold, snowy spells. Back then I didn't dream that the relatively frequent snow I'd known all my life would soon disappear! 

It used to dismay me when, in following years, charts didn't come off, but by 2005 or so it was obvious that something had changed and the models despite showing snowy nirvana most years didn't come to fruition. 20 years later and with the memory of the 80s and 90s still seared in my brain I've come to expect nothing. Expect nothing much and you won't be disappointed!

The one thing that does still excite me is the chance of snow at Christmas, as I'd dearly love to see a proper White Christmas IMBY before I die (I'm 46, the average age of my parents' death is 57, so goodness knows how many more chances I'll get - the last one was before I was born, in 1970). This year was a cruel tease, but at least I saved the GFS runs which showed an inch of snow here on Christmas afternoon. 

With phones now having apps that many younger people rely on, sometimes including myself to see trends 10 days ahead. I believe sites like this will fade away to a distant memeory which is sad.

Just for the record I’m 54, have been interested in the weather since my grandad made me a weather map about the age of 6, made of cardboard he drew the map of the uk and cut me out symbols to stick on the map like the old BBC weather forecasts.

Not sure the average young person would have ever engaged in chats about weather models. I wouldn't have dreamed of talking about them to my friends at school in the late 90's/early 2000s. 

Is true though we rely on the easier options now though,  particularly apps and the ancillary model charts such as snow depth and temp charts rather than interpreting a standard  500hpa pressure map.  

Think if young people don't use this forum, it's more of a shift away from forums to social media. 

I noticed a few young lads reviewing charts come up on YouTube in the last few days.

😂

The NW model thread turns into a lunatic asylum when there is a cold spell on the way. Understandably, people will get excited at the prospect of cold and snow, but many of them seem to lose objectivity and run away into dream land about it being one of the worst cold spells for some time. Then the toys inevitably get thrown out the plan when the models start to water it down or move away from it completely.

I've model watched since I was 16, and I'd say I've got enough experience to know how these things evolve nowadays. Either way, "watering down" is a certain part of the package.