There's obviously a fair few members that agree with the op to some degree but not universal agreement and there's still a reasonable number of colder members. Could be better, could be worse! (Should mention as you'd expect the ens look rosier/even rosier the further towards the frozen wastelands of the north you get). 

Deep FI etc. etc. but who knows, maybe our unsettled interlude will be just that and we'll be back under a raw North or North Easterly a few days down the line.

Edit - the ens are generally reasonable too imo - decent agreement for cold until circa 6th to the 8th, a fair few runs keep it chilly/cold and there's a few cheeky cold fellas.

Other parts of the country do of course exist and as you'd expect given the setup things look a little cleaner/colder for Scotland for example:-

Little disturbance around Iceland at T60:-

Ends up NW Scotland at T81 (ish):-

Then wanders down the country:-

Exiting somewhere Norfolk/Suffolk way:-

I think something similar was there in one of the earlier runs too - something to keep an eye on maybe. (UKMO does have a little feature of rain, boo, ECM seems to have a little feature that keeps further west and is again mostly rain, boo).

Bigger picture wise upto T150 and unsurprisingly not an enormous amount of change - still cold but HP cell is gradually sinking, will it sink and go mild or revert to a bullseye for snow somewhere? (Oh and there's another little feature over Wales at that point too, ends up rain on it's western flank and snow on its eastern flank as it sinks down through central england).

Edit: and it's another cold gets pushed away by a regulation west to eastward moving front around 07/01. Maybe could get a lee northerly behind it as HP tries to ridge in the Atlantic. Ah well. 

Something has made that a certainty almost in the last decade for some reason!

Have to hope for an about turn tomorrow as today has not been a good day of model watching!

Yep. No dressing this up, its not great 18z run for longevity.

What appears definite is a short, fairly potent cold snap with snow for a lucky few, followed by the Atlantic returning, and much quicker than previous runs. Still time for it to change again for the better, and hopefully we are just looking at the usual model wobbles.

Unless we get a seriously cold near Continent the North has and always will fair better for snow in the winter months, especially in a N/NW ly. If we ever get France freezing with snow cover and a S.E ly then I'll get interested for here.

Edit: This is the day 7 (168 hr) GEFS mean showing good consistency up this point at least: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU18_168_1.png 

Yes - 18Z GFS ENS mean for 5th is -8.3c compared to the -7.8c in 12z that's all I have to say that is good about the 18z:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49068&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

But a lot of runs are very keen to get the Atlantic back by 5th/6th!?

I think that’s a fair take, but the latest runs do tilt the balance a bit.

Yes, there are still a meaningful chunk of cold members hanging on double-digit support for prolonged cold is nothing to sniff at given where we were a few days ago. But the trend across the last couple of runs is that the block is losing leverage, with the Atlantic starting to probe more effectively and the cold looking less self-sustaining than it did earlier in the week.

So it feels like we’ve moved from “potentially special” to “take what you can get”. Probably not a 1979-type outcome, agreed, but still a decent cold interlude by modern standards and as you say, any sustained cold and wintry weather is a bonus these days. The Alps certainly look like beneficiaries, which is no bad thing for those with trips lined up. They really need it as there has been no real  fresh snow in most parts  for nearly 4 weeks now.

For the south the 18Z GEFS mean is a fair bit quicker to bring in mild air. Something has shifted in the output that suggests a swift breakdown… if breakdown is the right word as it never really arrives in the south in the first place!

A snow covered Scotland is good for enhancing cold over Ireland when winds are from that direction, just as it is for England when winds are directly from the north. 

Yes, and sorry to go OT but keep in mind this is from 3rd January - 12th: - Yet even the longer range update from 13th - Jan 27th - the Met O still talks of HP centred to the west of UK and cold with frost etc. It is NOT until Mid month the Met O talks about the "potential" for changeable conditions. - See below: - I wonder if the forecast will change tomorrow's update in line with models?

Saturday 3 Jan - Monday 12 Jan

Northerly winds will bring a spell of very cold, wintry conditions to much of if not all of the UK through at least the early part of this period. These will bring snow showers to areas that are exposed to onshore winds. Subtle day-to-day changes in wind direction will change the places most exposed to the showers, but where they occur some significant accumulations of snow are likely. There are likely to be some more coherent bands of sleet and snow working south, and these may bring a risk of more prolonged and widespread wintry precipitation affecting some inland areas. Things become less certain by the second week of January, however it's possible the cold conditions may persist with an ongoing risk of winter hazards across much of the UK.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 29 Dec 2025

Tuesday 13 Jan - Tuesday 27 Jan

High pressure will probably be close to the UK at the start of this period, perhaps most likely centered to the west, and whilst this may allow relatively settled and dry conditions with a risk of frost and fog initially, there will be the chance of some occasional wet weather at times, perhaps more especially in the north and east. Given some relatively cold air close to the UK, this may bring the chance of some wintry hazards in places. Towards mid-month, there is the potential for rather more changeable conditions to develop more widely, although confidence in this aspect of the forecast is currently low.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 29 Dec 2025

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/