I’d bank that at that range with the cold moving down from the north again. At a glance it looks mediocre but I think it’s a decent chart as the high to the SW makes no progress over the last few frame and the low pressure to the north moves south. I would say it’s an encouraging start to the 12z output.

Edit: Both the UKMO and GFS 12z op runs look good so far (out to day 6) if it is cold you are looking for.

Not a snow chart in itself for London, but certainly an encouraging start to the 12z and one that keeps the door open for something more organised to develop underneath.

That's -7's for you these days. Same old!

Yep, looking great for you Michael. For others, down in the south, it all starts to look insipid from fairly early on as Brian says.

For most of us, it'll be cold, but nothing special, if the 12zs so far are close to the mark. Areas north and east facing will have some fun and games though.

Cold is well and truly locked in, but there’s still no organised low in the Channel at this stage.

IMO, the important point is that the Atlantic low is being shunted south rather than lifting NE, which is often how Biscay lows, French cut-offs and eventual Channel runners start to evolve on later frames.

I view this  as a pre conditioning chart  which is supportive of the pattern, but not the snow event in its own right.

I'm in a north and east-facing area but don't expect much, if anything, in terms of snow. 

Neither the op GFS nor the ICON are overly inspiring (with my snow fan hat on), both singing from the same sheet in the 180+ timeframe - both showing the sort of breakdown looming where things just warm up and there's no transitional snow. 

Thankfully a week remains a very long time given the current setup and I'm sure there'll be plenty of twists and turns to come. At least there will be some genuinely cold weather around from New Year's Eve (down here) and earlier further north.

EDIT: GEM is more interesting, though, showing plenty of trough disruption as the Atlantic slowly makes inroads. Plenty of snow, but only north of the M4!

SECOND EDIT: The MetO follows along the lines of GFS/ICON - a bit of a theme tonight! 

Lots to play for, but I wouldn’t expect any details on snow chances to be firmed up for at least a couple of days but probably longer.

Agree. Hopefully the best is still to come, but from my perspective GFS, AIGFS, UK Met and ICON-G have all come in at the lower end of the scale. 

There are a lof of absolute bobby dazzlers on the 12z GEFS upto 192 hours, that has calmed my nerves a lot. Many showing blizzard like conditions at times.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_120_1.png 

From villain to hero...in GEM we believe

Convinced the Mrs to go a wee overnighter Thursday into Friday, where would people suggest is a sweet spot about 2/3 hours north of Glasgow for some nice beefy snow showers 

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/significant-weather/20260106-1200z.html 

From what's available (as the charts seem to be almost random, and their presentation is far from WZ/MC/TWO standards) - looks like low pressure then takes up residence near the UK, with cold air lingering over northern areas. 

I've not micro analysed the 'breakdown' shown on the GFS op but assume it's a combination of jet angle and the HP cell strength versus Greenie blocking that's tipped it from 'ooh, look snow' to 'a rather boring warm up with some rain outside of maybe Scotland and Northern England'. It'll be interesting to look at the ens when available and ECM's take on things to see if we've maybe moved towards bringing back the uncertainty point to closer to 05/01 or indeed more decisively picked the mid to longer term solution.

Before all that may or may not happen, showers turning to snow early hours of New Year's Day for Scotland and a fun wintry little feature moves North to South on the 02/01 bringing at least a wintry mix down a large chunk of the country. (It'll probably be gone on the 18z, but still, potential snow for areas not usually blessed in a Northerly and all closer to the reliable range). Given the earlier ens sets I'd be surprised if there's been a universal move to a more definite and earlier breakdown even for MBY but it could happen.

Does the longer term on the GFS op look as good as the earlier runs? Nope. Is the the incoming Northerly still shown to evolve along the same lines as it has been shown? Yep. Is it worth looking at the ens and all output along with tomorrow's runs to get a better feel for what happens after the initial cold and (for some) unstable Northerly shot? I'd say so and even then it's still far enough out to take with a pinch of salt. 

Northerlies are generally fickle beasts IMBY and whilst I'd rather the GFS op showed a nicer solution down here in the longer term, even if it was I wouldn't be getting too excited about any snowy LPs until they get to around 36-48 hours out. As I said earlier, at least there's the Scottish webcams etc. if people want a vicarious fix (which I do)🤪

I’m not sure that mild conditions will “make it” all the way on that run.

I like P15 I think it is on the GEFS set: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsenssnowdepthaberdeen.png 

The "significant weather" chart shows the boundary being around Sheffield as the next system moves in at 240 - to the south, a deluge, to the north, lots of snow.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/europe/significant-weather/20260108-1200z.html 

If I were in Aberdeen I'd be very excited, truth be told, but down here in Kent... not so much. 😁

EDIT: I guess it'll end up being similar to the GEM run, a succession of systems slowly dragging milder air northwards, but with lots of snow for areas to the north of the systems each time. 

Most other areas are dependent on troughs and polar lows.  As usual altitude is king, perhaps ever more so. And of course as Retron says, the further north the better!

Lots to play for and I will have a look at the 0zs with interest.

 We could still go completely Pete Tong yet. But we are still in the game and that's better than the normal situation