We still see blues over northern greenland and not yellows, we need that block to be stronger. the GFS 06z is an improvement and step towards UKMO and ECM.  

The ECM ENS precip. chart 00z London shows 20% chance of snow on 4th Jan with some lower percentages at other dates in early Jan.  Not quite up to the 30% chance that I mentioned a few days ago that would get me interested, but worth noting.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep276 

I'd second this - was drafting something similar up but it kept coming across as a bit of an attack on MFAS which it wasn't supposed to be!

For me although the charts have been toying with colder solutions we've not had cross model support in a reliable timeframe. The Xmas day snow being a good example - not universal support as ECM (Op at least) was further south and enough ens uncertainty too. At the point you'd need to see the ECM onboard, the other models started correcting south, which was disappointing but not for me all that surprising. GFS's NYD northerly with snow for some hasn't been fully supported by the other output and was therefore suspect - we do look likely to get a shot of colder uppers from the North but not in the interesting GFS way, more a glance with HP too close. 

There's definitely been a lot of colder and snowier charts thrown out lately but the ens support (over all models where we can see them) has suggested they're generally less likely than our resident HP wandering about allowing some milder and colder changes of air mass but probably not moving to anywhere where deeper cold uppers and snow are the most likely outcome. (Or IMO far enough south for milder air more generally albeit that remains a possibility as you head deeper in to FI, just not the most likely). 

I'd just add a little comment on GEM too - it's an option and remains one, albeit it's run today ends up with a very different artic profile than yesterday's 12z, a different Atlantic set up, different Scandi set up (etc. etc.) and a different airmass over the UK, not sure how both can be correct! IMO it has looked a little too progressive in terms of the sinking scenario it has been showing on and off for a while given other output showing otherwise. FWIW at T120 GEM is currently 4th out of (in order) ECM, UKMO, GFS and itself and has verified best at 3 data points in the last 30 days. I'd assume it's fine margins as it'll still be nearly correct, just slightly less so than the other models and may well be doing better than GFS at present, given the more robust northerly GFS had which appears likely to be wrong.  

In general terms and post any Xmas data issues, there is I think a much better signal this morning for cold or chilly to dominate until around 05/01 but I'm not convinced it'll be cold enough or cold and unsettled enough for much more than a continuation of what we've had over Xmas. It could also just be a blip as it's only 1 set of runs, so would need to see similar levels of agreement in the ens suites over the next day or so. The potential for something more interesting remains of course and that's half the fun of model watching IMO - the chase of what remains an unusual outcome for the UK (my bit anyway) and it actually verifying!

 Edit - think I've been a bit too pessimistic re the New Year (ish) northerly having looked again - would say there's a move towards more of a direct hit today, enough so for a briefish window of snow for parts of Scotland and down the east coast of England. It's not the more fanciful Greenie HP GFS had toyed with or followed by a ridge into Scandi but it is a more direct hit than a glance now. Who knows perhaps this signal will start marching down towards T0, if it does there's a reasonable chance of snow for usual locations favoured in a northerly flow.

Thanks, mate, for bringing us agenda-devoid analysis. Same goes to several others. It's so valuable to be able to see sensible posts that cut through some agenda-driven guff.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=6&time=204&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

That's the type of setup that can work out really good for this region. If that kind of chart starts appearing widely across models, just a couple of days out, I'll get very excited!

Some sharp frosts and near ice days but precious little else........take that though and time for changes and shortwaves

The 12z MetO run shows one of those rare things- an active front heralding deep cold air behind, and it moves north to south across the whole of the UK between 144 and 168. I daresay it'd be one of those rain-to-snow events if it came off.

And I remember one in the early 2000s - my dad was late home from work, and I watched it chucking it down with rain, then "poof", it turned to heavy 20p-flakes of snow and settled immediately. My dad came home muttering about how treacherous the roads were - in a snowglobe type snowfall. It shows that if conditions are right snow can settle even on puddly ground!

GEM also much improved

You must feel a little vindicated when the models do their about turn after the xmas data issues. The latest model output continues to offer some interesting output with a distinctive lack of a PV so far in the normal default place across Greenland. Long may that continue.

January 2004....when Everyman and his dog got stuck on the M11 overnight . Not the volume of snow but the sudden impact it bought 

UKMO looks nicest but given GFS and GEM it's probably a bit optimistic (850s are -9 to -11 over the UK):-

GEM (-7 to -11 over all but the extreme SW where it's -5 and -6):

GFS (850s are -5 to -10 over the UK):-

Obviously they're just snapshots but show the general pattern to the edge of the reliable/early FI is consistent for a decent shot of colder air. 

I need more than a bit of luck to see anything from a northerly IMBY but for other more favoured spots it's starting to look promising for a 72-96 hour window at least starting from 30/12 as the initial cold shot moves through then picking back up from somewhere around or just after NYD as the more promising follow on cold shot moves south. No model is suggesting countrywide snow or anything but there's snow showers for usual prone areas and there's a fair bit of decently cold air around so surprises could crop up nearer the time. 

Not that the current/recent chilly easterly interlude has been particularly gloomy IMBY (I called that wrong!) but I'd imagine if the Northerly does verify it'll bring the sparkling days thing they usually do IMBY, which will be most pleasant. 

Definitely encouraging stuff so far and probably only a day or so away from being in to the more reliable range where you can be fairly confident in the general pattern verifying.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=12&time=198&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

I don't really understand why lacking data would make things milder than they should be. Just less accurate in either direction.

Think Darren said that more often than not, the lower level of data leads to an increase in MO showing cooler/colder setups. This time, it seems the opposite is the case.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=00&charthour=3&chartname=sd_euro&chartregion=eur&charttag=Snow%20depth