Not at all, you missed out the word "feel". I challenge you to stand by the sea, as I'll be doing, with a 40mph wind coming off it, subzero dewpoint at say 4C and say it doesn't feel perishing! It will do - and I know that from many years of experience.  It'll feel all the colder too considering the mild mush we've had of late: it's 9.9, dew 8.3 out there at the moment and that's typical of what we've had so far this month. The change will come on Monday or Tuesday as the drier Continental air kicks in...

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 0Z - the HP above ridges SE-wards into Europe preventing any sustained E-lies; a cold pool brushes the S coast on Christmas Eve but after that the source of air is from SE Europe until Sun 28th. By then the HP has split and re-formed 1045mb W Scotland allowing weak N/NE-lies to creep down the E coast (further east, a deep LP running south promises heavy snowfall all the way down the Russian border). By Tue 6th the HP has moved south 1025mb E Anglia and Scotland is back into Atlantic gales.

ECM - agrees well with GFS until New Year but some retrogression of the HP implies stronger N-lies through the N Sea after New Year. On Mon 5th a weak ridge of HP 1020 mb E Scotland divides a cold east from an increasingly mild west.

AIFS - London, maxima dropping and staying at 3-5C from Wed 24th into the New Year, a little rain tonight then dry. Edinburgh, similar temp profile, rain additionally in small amounts in the week after Christmas

GEFS - dipping  for Christmas Day itself (to 5C below norm in the S, only just below in the N), after which mean stays near norm (yesterday in the S it was much below), with a big spread of ens members (mostly cooler, the mean kept up by some much milder runs). After today, best chance of rain Sun 4th.

Snow row figures now minimal with the exception of Christmas Day in the S, and New Year in the east, 10/33 on both occasions.

Still just an outside chance of a dusting of snow in the SE for Christmas, but increasingly unlikely. Cooler than we've been used to, but nothing out of the ordinary for a traditional winter.

Keep going Darren. There are a few “doomcasters” and cherry pickers around, but most of us “lurkers” really appreciate your calm rational analysis. And, by my reckoning, you are likely to be standing by the sea in a windchill of around -10C, and anyone who thinks that ain’t nippy needs to experience it.

Ah well, at least it will be cold and I'll take that over mild dross at this time of the year. At least for my area it's looking like it will be very cool/cold for a good week, which probably is a change from previous years.

To be fair it has been hinted at for a while after the upcoming anticyclonic period.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_282_1.png 

More generally, while still not looking overly wintry (snow over etc), the cooler than average temperatures will feel much more wintry than the mild start to the season.

I've backed ECM throughout. It had this nailed I think.

Days on end of cool anticyclonic gloom is not pleasant!

Anticyclonic gloom? Are you wintering in Iceland?

That sounds like the outlook for here, elsewhere it should be less gloomy. In fact the ECM suggests a bright or sunny day for the majority on Christmas Day (not here of course!)

 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/simulated-vis-sat-image/20251225-1500z.html

Edit: The GFS 00z op run also shows a similar picture in terms of sunshine for Christmas Day 

I don’t think anyone is suggesting “lots of sunshine”. There will probably be quite a lot of cloud at times, but not constant unless you’re exposed to the easterly influence over a long North Sea track I.e. here.

I certainly don’t expect it to be a very sunny period, nor do I think it will be constantly grey (away from my back yard). 

I do find a 24 hour pattern change leading to self-congratulations from the usual sources a bit tedious given the time scales still involved.

(I have a mental bingo card for such developments with a couple of “numbers” still to cross off).

Given how things looked 24 hours ago, I wonder how they will look in 24 hours time. More of a trend towards a high centred over us, a shift back in the other direction, or even a growing trend towards something older from the north post Christmas? Watch this space.

Agree with all of this. The only thing I would add is that as we've seen in recent decades, getting high pressure to "ping" (I think that was Darren's word) between Scandinavia and Greenland is the devil's work in the "modern" era. Therefore, my money (and obviously I don't have a crystal ball) is on the models continuing to trend towards a slowly sinking Rex block. 

Precedent would suggest that scenario could be more likely but the models are still quite robust at showing higher heights in the Greenland region (or at least to the NW of the U.K.) in the medium term.

Christmas Day could be quite nice across much of England (albeit with a cold wind):

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_108_24.png 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_117_53.png 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?chartname=ecmwfenspreciprate&chartlocation=london 

(My thanks to Brian for pointing out this chart a few weeks ago.) 

There’s doomcasting, and then there’s putting things in perspective. Some of the narrative has been rather prematurely celebrated, and for those so called ‘lurkers’ or guests who may not interpret the output so well it can be very misleading. 

It will feel colder yes. ‘Perishingly’ so? I challenge the choice of adverbs more carefully. 

Expect a rollercoaster ride if a cold pattern is dependent on getting a height rise across the arctic to link up to our resident midlatitude high. Its the most poorly predicted place on earth with the possible exception of the southern ocean. 

Bigger picture I'd echo some of the less 'reactive' comments being made. It's still a blocked pattern, though one that has shifted slightly and largely keeps the colder uppers away in the reliable time frame. Where the HP wanders to was always going to be critical and continues to be so. For the speculative Xmas day snow, yes GFS, UKMO have shifted south slightly but the ECM op actually shifted north a bit and brought in slightly colder uppers as a result. It always looked a long shot getting that cold pool to hit MBY as it's a small pool and a small target but unless the 12zs remove it from the ens, it remains possible a correction further north will happen. 

As the next few GFS charts from the above one show there's still a lot of potential in the charts, whether they verify or not is TBC and I imagine the ens will continue to show various options in a still blocked regime. 

Yes, cold still over Christmas, zero for first thing across many parts, but less snow (or any ppt) shown. And the swings and roundabouts of outrageous fortune are still to play out. Another of the 32 will be picked later and that may show more/less/different.

Currently, one foot on the ramp, one foot off, I hope the ramp doesn't move just yet....

Cheers all - happy chasing your Christmas!

The freezing level over the country from NYD is mostly 400 metres or lower, with 500-1,000 hPa values below 528dam and often in the low 520s until a less cold incursion moves south into Scotland at the end.