Safe from what? I take it you don’t like snow or any precipitation for that matter? And ICON is one model (a lesser one IMO) of many so let’s not be too hasty with the quick assumptions! 

The energy left  in the trough off the south coast of Greenland circa +36/48( as the sinking low doesn't spin southwards with as much energy as previously modelled) is the factor that keeps the main centre of the developing block a little further south. Something to watch as the 12z GFS starts to roll

Safe from any flooding, safe from me betting my house on not seeing snow on 25th.

But I love snow, would love to be proved wrong, but I fear I won't be!

Yep, everything is going south and we are left in a dry, cold easterly. GFS then has a high sinking over the UK to maintain a dry, settled and chilly period coming up.

(I’m still hoping for the signals for a potent northerly around the New Year period to strengthen, but that’s a long way off).

A long, dry, cold spell with a UK High.

Finally we can dry out, that as it stands is good news. Shame about the chance of proper winter diminishing run by run, but a lot of people are affected by flooding right now, so the outlook is still good for many.

It’s not “run by run” as the last couple of runs increased the risk overall. It’s just the 12z op runs so far. Generally it was never ever shown as being really snowy just a risk of a a White Christmas in some southern parts. 

Close but no cigar...Still time for a northward shift...a Brussels express in reverse from two years ago..could turn out to be a great winter down the road but until then the  UKs staggering ability to miss snow events  is still in operation. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/2/26315/gensfr_0_2_126mek1.png 

The ensemble mean 850 charts for noon on Christmas Day are a fraction of a degree warmer across much of the UK than the 6z chart, but it's really splitting hairs - there's still quite a wide envelope for the track of that upper low, and it's that upper low which brings the excitement and potential. 

There does seem to be a trend today towards sinking things just that bit further south, but as I said this morning 5 days out is an eternity in modelling terms. The only certainty is that there'll be plenty more to-ing and fro-ing over the next few days!

Need the HP to move away north so we can get cold with snow around than this HP that will bring less cold temperatures to average, no frost and no sunshine.  

Actually it's been up and down rather than down then down a bit more. The GFS ENS earlier today was very cold-promising.

The Christmas Day snow-in-the-south event came after a no-snow forecast, so no-one expected it for certain.

Of course you and I don't know which way the models will trend tomorrow, or the day after, at 5 days out.

Spot on that we don't know which way they will trend. But experience tells me they will continue to trend away from what most of us really want to see.

It’s worth remembering that there are two facets to the white Christmas angle. One is what snow enthusiasts are hoping for, and the other is what people are betting on. It is the latter that I have primarily been discussing here and elsewhere, because until the last 24 hours or so there was virtually no support for the idea of accumulating snow. 

The actual definition is:

"For the Met Office to declare a ‘white Christmas’, a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of 25 December, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station"

Still looks likely to be the coldest Christmas in 15 years, and makes a change from mid-teens!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=12&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Same experience in July?:

Qu: 'I hereby declare, I ...admit I have been far too negative with regards our prospects this month.

I need to learn some valuable lessons here

A great chance for learning from experience.

Followed by:

GEFS isn't great either. Back to my cool and unsettled July idea after a brief warm spell. Ah well. We've had a good ride.

A hot July and the hottest summer on record follows...

That looks to me like a brief toppler scenario, plus is an age away.

Sadly, this looks a lot like a powder puff colder snap again.

Blimey, that's incredibly powerful that you've trawled back that far to find an inaccurate post from me 😅

And incidentally, from my perspective, the summer was actually crap because nearly every one of my cricket games was either washed out or badly rain affected (I'm not even joking!).

I just must live in a gloomy dismal micro climate, hence why people nickname me Gloomin 😅😅

Just look at the rest of the run it isn't a toppler. You are on the wind up now Mooms.