The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 December 2025 17:11:48
Why does this chart say 'Valid Sat 25 Dec'? Christmas Day is Thursday this year.
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
13 December 2025 17:23:39

Why does this chart say 'Valid Sat 25 Dec'? Christmas Day is Thursday this year.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

It's having to use Zeller's Congruence to calculate the day and there's an issue with the script path. The chart is correct. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

picturesareme
13 December 2025 17:25:55

The air mass over and around the British Isles has come up from the SW so it's reasonably moist. If we then get a rise of pressure  as per GFS without some brisk winds to enforce a change of air mass, we should surely be expecting fog.

Fogs are another thing we see very little of these days, along with Scandi Highs, and I don't just mean the smoke-filled smogs that were a feature before the Clean Air Act. From an increasingly random memory, there always seemed to be fogs which disrupted my journey home from university in the early 60s, and lethal fogs driving down the M6  in years either side of 1970, when I was working in Manchester and visiting parents/parents-in-law in the south for Christmas. Nothing quite like that sticks in my mind as a personal experience so far this century (and don't get me started on London 1952!)

The last 'traditional' and persistent fog I can remember reading about caused a major accident in December 1984 on the M25. 

https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1984/dec/11/m25-motorway-accident 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

We had some decent fog back in November..

UserPostedImage 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 December 2025 17:37:50

It's having to use Zeller's Congruence to calculate the day and there's an issue with the script path. The chart is correct. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I'm not surprised there's trouble with the script. Any algorithm based on 14 months in the year is asking for trouble.

https://www.reddit.com/r/learnpython/comments/7mpmqn/zellers_congruence_for_the_life_of_me_i_cant/ 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 December 2025 17:43:19

We had some decent fog back in November..

UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I'm thinking that when I were a lad, you wouldn't have seen the street lights further than 4, maybe 5 away in  a 'decent' fog - which also lasted for at least a couple of days. But maybe memory is exaggerating ...


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
13 December 2025 17:45:11

I'm not surprised there's trouble with the script

https://www.reddit.com/r/learnpython/comments/7mpmqn/zellers_congruence_for_the_life_of_me_i_cant/ 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I actually wrote the script myself as a plugin to GrADS which is the application most charts on TWO are generated with. Surprisingly, it works well when correctly used. 😂😂


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

BJBlake
13 December 2025 17:47:52

Don’t forget that the widespread and heavy snowfall on Boxing Day arrived after a period of freezing fog and a bitterly cold easterly. The ground conditions were about as favourable as you could want.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes. -  I remember it well, when my parents were driving back from my Uncle and Aunts house, seeing the powdery snow blowing about over the road like dust, well sub zero and an already frozen ground, And next morning, i awoke to the sound of tractors from the nearby farms digging out cars stuck in the dip that contained our house, that had seemingly filled up with snow - which lay 50 cm deep in the road channel, and everything Squeaked And clumped down in dollops as deep snow shifted And slid on roofs and  off trees. marvellous - a snow addict was created that day!!


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Retron
13 December 2025 18:03:13

It's having to use Zeller's Congruence to calculate the day and there's an issue with the script path. The chart is correct. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

With PHP you'd just use something like this to add the date to the image - I'd have thought asp.net would have similar functionality built in?

header('Content-type: image/jpeg');

$jpg_image = imagecreatefromjpeg('webcamnew.jpg');

$white = imagecolorallocate($jpg_image, 255, 255, 255);

$font="c:/windows/fonts/segoeui.ttf";

$text = "UKWCT - ". date ("l, F jS", strtotime('+0 hours', filemtime("webcamnew.jpg")));

imagettftext($jpg_image, 32, 0, 20, 1060, $white, $font, $text);

imagejpeg($jpg_image);

imagedestroy($jpg_image);

(The above is an edited version of the code to date- and time-stamp the webcam image on the UKWCT website).


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
13 December 2025 18:11:47

With PHP you'd just use something like this to add the date to the image - I'd have thought asp.net would have similar functionality built in?

header('Content-type: image/jpeg');

$jpg_image = imagecreatefromjpeg('webcamnew.jpg');

$white = imagecolorallocate($jpg_image, 255, 255, 255);

$font="c:/windows/fonts/segoeui.ttf";

$text = "UKWCT - ". date ("l, F jS", strtotime('+0 hours', filemtime("webcamnew.jpg")));

imagettftext($jpg_image, 32, 0, 20, 1060, $white, $font, $text);

imagejpeg($jpg_image);

imagedestroy($jpg_image);

(The above is an edited version of the code to date- and time-stamp the webcam image on the UKWCT website).

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes it does, but the charts are generated in GrADS and asp.net is only used to display them. The inbuilt day function in GrADS stopped working several years ago, hence the need for a workaround. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Retron
13 December 2025 18:13:51

Yes it does, but the charts are generated in GrADS and asp.net is only used to display them. The inbuilt day function in GrADS stopped working several years ago, hence the need for a workaround. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That's what I was getting at - rather than have GrADS stamp the image, do it afterwards (per image) in asp.net? It takes just a few milliseconds to do it in PHP - if you go here you'll find it loads instantly:

https://ukwct.org.uk/webcam/webcam.php?1765649591406 


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
13 December 2025 19:24:08
12Z charts seem to be moving more towards mid latitude blocking. Quiet for the UK and perhaps a colder interlude for more southern parts of Europe. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

David M Porter
13 December 2025 22:05:39

12Z charts seem to be moving more towards mid latitude blocking. Quiet for the UK and perhaps a colder interlude for more southern parts of Europe. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think most people will be glad of a much drier spell, even if it is a mid-latitude block and even if it isn't especially cold. The ground here is sodden and really can't take a great deal more rain now without there being a real risk of flooding in places, so the more settled spell now being indicated by the models as we approach Christmas will be most welcome. 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Dickieboy68
13 December 2025 22:38:24
Ah yes, the lights were Sodium orange so they were more dull (or duller, not sure ... ?), anyway I also really like the thumbnail fog photo you added, that is really good. I will apply my tech brain to see if I can do that in one of my posts later. 
Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004

ballamar
13 December 2025 23:22:59
Think there will be some really interesting inversions or faux cold coming up. Could be very interesting if we can’t get deep cold uppers. Nice to see some fog and frost
CField
14 December 2025 01:44:17
Nasty looking storm off the South West around Dec 29th on the Gfs 18z run......a more southerly track reminds me of Jan 1990 ....not brilliant at reading MJO chart but dots going more in the circle doesn't look great for WAA behind.The first few modern  mild winters after 1987 were frustrating locked in zonal set ups and this winter has got that feel to it at present..
Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

tallyho_83
14 December 2025 02:47:16

Nasty looking storm off the South West around Dec 29th on the Gfs 18z run......a more southerly track reminds me of Jan 1990 ....not brilliant at reading MJO chart but dots going more in the circle doesn't look great for WAA behind.The first few modern  mild winters after 1987 were frustrating locked in zonal set ups and this winter has got that feel to it at present..

Originally Posted by: CField 

Well only 16 days away haha! The Met office and BEEB etc long range have gone for higher pressure so I doubt that low will be maintained in the forth coming runs! 

I don't know about MJO and DOTs in a circle - can you elaborate more? This doesn't effect our weather I don't think!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Retron
14 December 2025 03:58:29
The ECM-46 continues to show an upcoming cold spell for some, with blue shading from the Midlands south in Christmas week, this then extending further north and with deeper blues over the south in the post-Christmas week, straddling the new year. 

Beyond that it's white, so near-normal.

It'll have been a long time since we last saw deeper blues over the UK on these charts in December (of course, they were mostly unavailable to us mere mortals until the last few years, but even so!)

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512130000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

The pressure anomaly charts are strongly suggestive of high pressure close by, perhaps over the UK:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202512130000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

So all in all - a marked change on the way. If nothing else, it'll be nice to have more seasonal weather over the festive week for once.


Leysdown, north Kent
CField
14 December 2025 06:45:30

Well only 16 days away haha! The Met office and BEEB etc long range have gone for higher pressure so I doubt that low will be maintained in the forth coming runs! 

I don't know about MJO and DOTs in a circle - can you elaborate more? This doesn't effect our weather I don't think!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

"Large amplitudes (outside of the circle) signify strong cycles of the MJO, while weak activity appears as rather random motion near the origin."

Yes that nasty low has gone, infact gfs finally going away from the zonal influence. Their cloud cover forcast looks positive for clear skies too although freezing fog lifting will be a factor.Yes a more old school cold snap to enjoy with frozen lakes, not snowy at present but winters like the past month are not welcome.


Favourite snowstorm

Famous channel low

Dec 31st 1978

Hastings East Sussex

Foot of level snow severe drifting

Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Retron
14 December 2025 07:24:31

"Large amplitudes (outside of the circle) signify strong cycles of the MJO, while weak activity appears as rather random motion near the origin."

Originally Posted by: CField 

In any other sense, looking at rainfall charts for the Indian Ocean and inferring the weather here as a result would be laughed out of court.

I really don't rate the MJO whatsoever, albeit it's fun watching folks on other sites get all excited about it, only to vanish when (as per usual) nothing much happens when it goes into phase 7-8-1.

(Yes, it will have some effect, but equally well the weather here will influence the MJO too in due course. It's just one very small, insignificant part of what drives our weather. If there were a magic formula we'd all have known about it long ago!)


Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
14 December 2025 08:51:52
Consistency is king. There won’t be any bulk buying if salt and grit, let alone a new tin of de-icer, until there’s a few days of consistent mean output across the suites. I am however encouraged by both a downward trend in MOGREPS ens and as Darren highlights a persistent cold anomaly signal in the EC46 sets. 

As it stands it’s likely to be a ‘seasonal’ Yule with colder and more settled conditions than of late, with the hint at this stage of something a little more enticing post Christmas. 


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 December 2025 09:06:36
FAX - trailing fronts over NW England and SW Scotland (see MetO weather warnings) eventually moving SE-wards by Tuesday and generating a trough extending all the way down to Spain.  All this swept away on Wed 17th by LP moving up towards Iceland 947mb with front and SW-ly gales for Britain. By Thu 18th this has spun off a secondary low 987mb approaching S Ireland.

GFS Op 0z: the secondary low deepens and runs NE-wards to N Scotland. The next LP is weaker 995mb and runs SE-wards from Galway Sun 21st to Spain Thu 25th which, with pressure rising 1040mb S Norway brings in quiet (and cooler?) SE-lies for Christmas Day. A ridge of HP from the Azores combines with the Norwegian HP and by Sat 27th a cell of HP 1040mb is centred over N England persisting to at least Tue 30th. Frost and maybe fog for Christmas?

ECM: puts more emphasis on the approach of HP from the SW, but arrives at about the same place for Christmas Day with 1030mb Scotland, though the lack of HP over Norway allows some (slightly) colder from the NE to affect S England. The HP cell is less persistent and soon drifts off to the Norwegian Sea leaving quiet but colder weather post-Christmas.

AIFS London maxima now about 10C dropping to around 5C over Christmas, some rain w/b Tue 16th , drier later. Edinburgh maxima about 8C in the first week, 5C in the second but a few colder days, rain until Sun 21st then dry 

GEFS: postage stamps at T+180 (Sun 21st) mostly variations on the theme of cold LP near Greenland and slack HP over Britain though a couple (P17. P27) place a shallow LP over Britain in the middle of higher pressure. Line graphs, for the south, mild to 21st then mean dropping to a degree or two below norm through Christmas (a fair spread of ens members, op and control amongst the mildest), rain likely Fri 19th (also 16th in SW), small amounts in some runs on other dates. For the north, mild now and around 19th, mean temp thereafter fairly close to norm. small amounts of rain for most of the area slowly drying up, but more across  N England in peaks now, 17th and 19th


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

BJBlake
14 December 2025 09:17:52

Consistency is king. There won’t be any bulk buying if salt and grit, let alone a new tin of de-icer, until there’s a few days of consistent mean output across the suites. I am however encouraged by both a downward trend in MOGREPS ens and as Darren highlights a persistent cold anomaly signal in the EC46 sets. 

As it stands it’s likely to be a ‘seasonal’ Yule with colder and more settled conditions than of late, with the hint at this stage of something a little more enticing post Christmas. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes - but the trend is for a blocked pattern now - stage 1, and then stage 2 - improvement as it wobbles about - there are many promising pert’s - and I’d take P1, 5 and 20 any day, but there are others too with much promise. Great reading of the posts surrounding this build-up - its like an advent calendar(LOL), every day, there’s a new window on the model evolution and comments on it. And you get 4 doors to open a day with the GFS.


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Rob K
14 December 2025 09:18:21

Think there will be some really interesting inversions or faux cold coming up. Could be very interesting if we can’t get deep cold uppers. Nice to see some fog and frost

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

The raw GFS charts show frost in pretty short supply right out to the end of the run, sadly, despite high pressure in charge. Generally high single-digit maxes and low single-digit minima.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
14 December 2025 09:30:52

That's what I was getting at - rather than have GrADS stamp the image, do it afterwards (per image) in asp.net? It takes just a few milliseconds to do it in PHP - if you go here you'll find it loads instantly:

https://ukwct.org.uk/webcam/webcam.php?1765649591406 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

👍I've generally found it easiest to use the tdef in the .ctl file directly in GrADS script. It shows something like this:

tdef 1 linear 12Z25dec2025

I then build the date stamp from this part 12Z25dec2025. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Jiries
14 December 2025 10:16:25

The raw GFS charts show frost in pretty short supply right out to the end of the run, sadly, despite high pressure in charge. Generally high single-digit maxes and low single-digit minima.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Rather not to have a HP here if going to be gloom and sunless, i seeing more sunshine during mobile pattern so hope this will happen to the end of the month if no prospect of deep cold and snow,  It going to get milder over Lapland with temperatures at less cold levels over 1 to 2c instead of -15t to -20C zone.

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