Just look at these pressure anomalies!

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202512110000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

Drier than average across the whole of the UK too...

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202512110000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

The op ECM last night had a Scandinavian High, an easterly with upper cold pool across the south and widespread snow on Christmas Day, especially in the north. If it were possible to "bank" a run, that would be the frontrunner so far!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

We have a few members now going off script, which in my experience quite often means a change is incoming. 

Maybe a case of 'watch this space 👀'....

GFS Op 0z - the potential E-ly at the end of the FAX runs comes to nothing as the Greenland LP moves slowly east and spins off a deep depression 955mb Fri 19th passing by the Hebrides with severe gales for most of Britain. Then back to the 'depression procession' with centres passing quickly close to N Scotland 970mb Sun 21st, 960mb Tue 23rd, 980mb Christmas Day. Something of a pressure rise Sun 28th 1030mb Denmark (but this feature keeps getting pushed into the future).

ECM - differs from GFS after 19th as a ridge of high pressure appears from France to Iceland with only a weak trough to the west of Ireland, converting for to a pre-Christmas SE-ly (but not that cold) before the HP centre slides off to the SW.

GEM - introduces another variation with the LP on Fri 19th decaying over Britain, leaving a shallow depression in the Channel and N-lies appearing down the Norwegian coast.

AIFS - London, maxima around 10C until Sun 21st, then dropping off to 5C over Christmas, some rain w/b Wed 17th. Edinburgh, very mild (13C) Sunday, otherwise mostly around 8C, slightly cooler for Christmas, rain w/b Sun 14th, drier but still a bit damp later.

GEFS - postage stamp charts for Fri 19th predominantly going with the SW-ly theme, a few blocking the depression procession effectively (P5, P21),  others promoting it (P8, P29) but in any case little sign of the fabled easterly at this stage.  Line graphs, mean temps starting mild and drifting down to norm by Sun 28th, with usual spread of ens members (so there are half a dozen distinctly cold ens members  but the majority are still mild). Rain in the S around Fri 19th and perhaps after Christmas, in the N starting earlier Sun 14th) and petering out. Snow row figures for 27th Dec from 5 (inverness) to 3 (as far SE as Norwich) out of 33.

Cooler for Christmas, but hopes of a proper cold spell have - er - been put on ice

Only one run, but has the potential to become quite cold 

We've been here so many times before though.  A mirage easterly at day 10.   Lets see if its still there tonight

That’s correct, see below to address the ill-informed post on the other page

UK reservoir levels are generally healthy as of December 2025, with many areas seeing good recovery after a dry spring and summer, leading to hosepipe bans being lifted (e.g., Yorkshire at 91.6% full). However, concerns remain about long-term water security and dry soils in the Southeast, with reports urging sustained rainfall to avoid future droughts despite recent improvements.

As far as the models are concerned - still no sign of anything particularly cold, thankfully, and hopefully drying up a bit. We could do with a break from the relentless rainfall

Incidentally, the day the chart is valid for doesn't change - the time and date change, but the day always says 'Fri'

Edit - out to +342 and there's a slightly similar evolution in terms of high pressure near/over the UK - but a fair bit further south, so the air isn't as cold and it's just all a bit 'meh'

ECM and AIFS are the jewels today

I imagine there'll be a few divers in the next GEFS set. We've all seen how a winter high can migrate and become well orientated with time. Perhaps everything will fall into place by the last week in Dec. We can but hope....

Only if there's a foot of snow already lying everywhere 😉

The ECM AI is (interestingly) coming around to what Brian's GFS AI chart was showing the last few days:

Frosty, foggy weather, which in many ways is more preferable to snow, which typically just turns into a messy, unnappealing slop after a few hours these days anyway. 

This makes more sense if you leave out the bit in bold. Is that what you meant?

In mind, I changed 'have' to 'how' (and assumed spell checker)

The 850hPa air is widely -3c to -5c over the UK

AIFS has some -5c 850hPa air over the SE on Xmas Day

I mean, in terms of being 'the promised land' it's akin to dying of thirst and being given a tablespoon of water (better than nothing, but hardly enough to get you excited!). And, of course, almost a fortnight away. But baby-steps in the right direction.

Yes - this is also true of the east (meaning East Anglia). Clearly there are wide divergences between the NW and the SE in this years rainfall and drought levels. Moreover, the South and East (especially so in the chalk aquifer areas within these  areas - which includes the Downs, Salisbury plain and central southern England plus west Norfolk, the need is for sustained rainfall to recharge depleted aquifers, as, unlike the west and north, the recharge is a slow process, and requires sustained steady rainfall. We have had a couple of wet episodes in the south and East, but still not enough to replenish depleted aquifers, and sustain them through another GW’d dry hot summer.