I think you’ll find it interesting David once you find it. It’s pulled a rosy apple from the barrel and not with out support from the suite.

Yes looks quite seasonal in the south: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=5&run=12&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

In fact in many southern parts the AIFS is colder at t2m than the GFS 12z op. 

That's the AIFS which is a different model. I linked the AIGFS which I believe may have better verification stats, see:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24494-AIGFS-now-on-TWO 

Ah right I’d missed that and didn’t even know it existed, thanks! Having said that it’s not too dissimilar to the AIFS version I think and could be quite seasonal in the south and very mild up here, but usable overall.

It will be interesting to see how the new model(s) perform(s) this winter.

It must be a warm Easterly then as I checked the 12z ensembles and barely a single run goes below -5c 850s right to the end of the range.

Perhaps down to map projection, but the shape of that surface high looks very off... uncanny even, in that way only AI generated images can. 

No, it is in no way a “warm easterly”. It may not be especially wintry, may be in FI and may be one “cherry picked” chart but it’s not a warm easterly.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=366&run=12&lid=C00&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 

Assume you understand 850s are not representative of conditions at ground level?

Not only that but the t850s for the control run are actually quite low and with an anticylonic easterly flow in winter it would be chilly.

The Control does get some -10c 850s in by the end.

ECM 12z also has an easterly but the lack of proper cold air is a concern

 But at least some decent ish charts tonight 

Yes chilly perhaps but not that impressive, and unlikely to verify based on the output at the moment.

It’s a very odd kind of warmth that delivers snow flurries to East Anglian and the SE as Christmas Day turns to Boxing Day.  Maybe you’ve forgotten the rule about 850 hPa values needed in an easterly, continental flow to produce snow?

I recall (in a David M Porter way) the bed wetters back in the summer bemoaning our “drought” as if we lived in 1980s Cambodia. It was always going to reset itself with little actual drama, and here we are

Happy to continue this until the hot weather returns in late Feb (these days)

Overall the models continue to paint a mobile pattern. 

To offer some hope to the non-mammals - there’s still quite a few weeks of winter left yet before we get to the good stuff. 

Tell that to the fish in the lakes and streams in East Anglia this summer, except you cant - because they are dead. However, I agree that the weather corrected itself and aquifers are filling again well and Most (but not all) the lakes and streams are with water and flowing again, except the  truly intermittent winter watercourses, which are strangely still dry.  It is nevertheless a great relief to see the rain return, and the pub run tonight is half decent -like the win for Ipswich Town FC. It would be such a Christmas present to see the Scandi HP verify and deliver some real old nostalgic snow showers for Christmas.

If it wasnt so wet or windy then maybe.  But mild weather like this is not pleasant. Yes, we can save on heating but thats about it.  I just want some dry calm weather now. I have given hope of seeing snow. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512100000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

That's worthy of a raised eyebrow, but in conjunction with the pressure and rainfall anomaly charts even moreso:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-mslp?base_time=202512100000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202512100000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

They show a positive pressure anomaly to the north and a broad negative anomaly to the south. This may mean weaker lows, or lows on a more southerly track. The precipitation chart is especially interesting, with a drier picture than normal generally - except for the east coasts, suggesting perhaps an easterly element to the winds.

The regime chart is also tantalising, with reds dominating the outlook - red is "Scandinavian blocking" as per the key. Note this doesn't mean a Scandinavian High in a perfect position to the UK, just that Atlantic lows aren't expected to barrel through deep into Eurasia.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest 

Whilst not the current favoured outcome, perhaps someone not on Nevis's summit may see  a flake of sleet as we head through the Xmas period? 

Of the GFS this morning, there are 11 perts with potential for cold weather or even very cold/ severe. There are another 5 with blocked patterns, which overall presents a majority showing a marked pattern change. This has more than hope value now - we are on watch notice for something of real prospect and at least interest.