Yes I'm thinking the mild rain will be replaced with cold rain for the Christmas period and that also ties in with the Met LRF for average or slightly above average temps for late December.

At least it would be a change to not have another extremely mild Christmas period potentially.

The second hunt may be about to start.... Cheers All.

Hopefully at least us in the SE will be protected by the Euroslug and the worst of it deflected further west and north.  

There was a time when the temp being 12c at 2am in mid December would be newsworthy and fruit flies back again like during summer.  

Yes - a raging jet stream and transitory cold zonality is as good as it gets! Some heavy showers, wintry on hills and mountains - possibly some white hail in the heaviest showers in the more southern areas perhaps. Better than 15 degrees and wet, muddy muck.

JET stream very strong across mid-Atlantic and aimed at N Britain until Thu 18th when it shifts further north and afflicts the Faeroes.

GFS Op 0z keeps the general SW-ly theme going but places the LPs further north (Faeroes/Iceland rather than Faeroes/Scotland) and shows a steady but slow rise of pressure from the SE; Britain is on the fringe of 1030mb Germany from Sat 13th, and by Sat 20th this ridges across Britain with a proper HP cell covering the country 1035 mb Christmas Eve.

ECM has less of a rise in pressure from Sat 13th; the LP lies from Greenland eastwards, eventually to Scandinavia while HP lies from Biscay to Greece and there is a long-fetch W/NW-ly developed by Christmas.

GEM likes the idea of HP from Fri 19th onwards, 1030mb centre Biscay

AIFS London maxima mostly near 10C, dropping to 5C from Mon 22nd, rain now and in w/b Sun 14th; Edinburgh maxima dropping from 10C now to 3C Mon 22nd but with a brief mild burst (13C) Sun 14th, small amounts of rain at any time.

GEFS at T+180 mostly based on SW-lies but with a few outliers from the extremes of a blocking pattern on one side (e.g.P4) and S-ly tracking lows on the other (e.g. P7). Line graphs show mean temp slowly dropping from mild mow to a little below norm Christmas Day, with rain frequent in w/b Sun 14th, often heavy in the west, somewhat drier before and after (once Bram has departed). Interesting outliers in the Op, consistently 7C above norm) and P27, 13C below norm in the S on Fri 19th.

No signs of winter cold but mercifully much drier for the next week i.e. reliable timeframe.

As a late 30 something'er i've always considered 'winter' to be a mid-Jan to early March season anyway, so plenty of time for something to occur as the ensembles have been hinting at over the past 24/48hrs.

That’s the problem with the ensembles - all hints and accusations.

There isn’t really any point in dressing it up as anything other than dross for the foreseeable, with as you say something dryer for southern areas at least. The all-time max Dec CET (9.6C in 2015) is definitely at threat if the trend continues (currently about 7.3C).

I thought we used the ensembles principally to test the likelihood of the Op verifying, with the occasional light relief of an outlier in FI? 🙂😉

I start with the forecast amongst the global warming models that our winters would become warmer and wetter, and look for anything that might break that trend.  Plus, as Brian posted here several times in recent winters, the trend of pressure building slightly to our south over recent decades, supports the tendency to milder winters.  Warmer oceans and associated higher moisture content in the atmosphere ticks the other box.

It is what it is.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep241 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1670325-Model-output-breakout-thread 

Definite downward trend to more seasonal temperatures in the ENS 

Here it is just after it's spun up:-

And here it is hitting parts of Ireland, Western Scotland etc:-

With corresponding wind speeds:-

UKMO take is broadly similar. GFS doesn't do anything and GEM has the feature but doesn't develop it. Last time out UKMO and ECM nailed the development and GFS came in line a few days later, be interesting to see if the feature stays present over the next few runs or is a blip. 

Wider picture and looking towards Christmas I'd say the HP hints have been watered down and there's more agreement for this to be just to the south, keeping us in a more mobile flow around 20/12 than was shown a few days ago. There's still some more amplification modelled post then, which brings in the chance of well time lee northerlies for a time as LPs move through and the ens are currently showing a return to 'mild' IMBY rather than daftly mild after the next few days. Given the scatter (as you'd expect in deep FI) there's still a chance the less mild signal could end up milder again and bring the record CET back in the frame. I still think that's a push looking at the output but it's still possible if the mid to long term trends milder (which it could do if HP does establish over the near continent). 

GFS OP 0z has much the same pattern, and has another LP passing by Tue 16th before a much closer visit Fri 19th 940mb running from SW Ireland to NE Scotland (watch out for another named storm!). Then back to the passage of N Scotland 960mb Mon 22nd. Then something of a pattern change as an extended trough dips S-wards for Christmas Day, with N-ly winds down the W coast feeding a local LP in the Channel 990mb. Probably not cold enough for snow except on mountains.  

ECM similar,  though it does throw in a trough dipping well south late Sun 21st, while starting Christmas Day with higher pressure albeit with something approaching from the Atlantic.

AIFS London maxima around 10C, dropping to 3C for Christmas, rain on many days in w/b Sun 14th. Edinburgh, maxima about 10C now, dropping a little next week and again much cooler (3C) for Christmas.

GEFS mild on and off until Wed 17th , when mean temp close to norm (considerable spread of ens members), rain in w/b Mon 15th (14th in west), drier before and possibly later. At T+180, a few runs (P2 & 3) have weak HP over Britain but others (P 14 & 16) looking stormy; by and large a continuation of the SW-lies.  Snow row figures for Inverness reaching only 5 or 6 /33 and that from Sun 21st onwards

So no prospect in the main models in the reliable time frame of any let-up in the disturbed weather from the SW. Just hints of something cooler over the Christmas period from AIFS and some GFS runs, but not a sound bet.

Noticed that about the experimental AI model, and the AI 06z appears to be following up on it. If that actually does end up being the final outcome come the moment then that would be a coup for that particular model, but doubt it'll change my negative view on AI in the world of photography, design and drawing.

Until then, middle/end part of next week is looking rather stormy, hopefully it'll get watered down as we get nearer to the time but there does tend to be a period of storminess just before Christmas. 

It's there clear your cache. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref