And its a La Nina winter

The reason why USA get greedy with all the cold and snow is the LP move freely east so they get cold behind so UK and Euruope can get them same if stupid LP that refused to move east and south east.  All LP is dancing around at the same place instead of moving east properly.  Something that preventing the LP from moving to Europe.

There are 6 perts in the GFS tea-time special of 30, which Show a blocked pattern, which is an improvement in recent runs, which is a 1:5 or 20% chance, odds I’d take after recent form. P5-6 show promise as does 10-12.

I remember studying GCSE geography some 25 - 30 years ago now when we studied physical systems and environment we covered natural disasters and global warming etc. We touched on the Gulf stream and how it keeps the UK mild in the winter for it's latitude as a temperate climate etc. 

What was also mentioned was that the decreased salinity and increased fresh water produced by melting Arctic sea ice caps could possibly bring the North Atlantic drift ak.a Gulf stream to a halt or at least slow it down and bring colder winters like other countries sharing of our same latitude!? Well this turned out untrue I guess or is still a possibility??

Sorry I have gone OT but I am curious.

Back to Models - the 18Z looks interesting in FI towards N.E. I know I am clutching at straws but anyway...

But looks like it is a sinker high but i think we would all welcome any drier weather at this rate!?  

I think I remember updates on this phenomenon - that whilst the NAD has slowed, there just isn’t enough non-saline melt water to temporarily shut it down, and when this happened before it was because of Ice dams melting and allowing  Hudson Bay sized areas to spill fresh water into the North Atlantic, which is not going to happen unless the Greenland ice sheet melted.  In Scotland there was evidence of beetles - some designed for cold and others for warmer climes, oscillating in peat records/ fossils, to indicate this flip-flop weather interaction with the NAD, and the surprise was the suddenness of the change - very much aligned to Catastrophe Theory, the change being like a switch.  Other reports suggest the temperature fluctuation this would cause to the UK climate would be nothing more than a temporary halt to the impacts of GW and would soon be overtaken. It has not happened yet, and I am not sure it will, but if it did, its effects would be temporary. If the NAD then started up again, as it has before, the heat would be back on. The model relevance to this is the likelihood of an increased propensity for relentless zonality in winter, with any blocks being very early or late in the winter (autumnal and spring blocks), and less and less chance of other patterns. However, as always, when the diamonds glitter from the oceans of pebbles, their rarity makes them more valuable and when the stars align, diamonds are possible To shine out from those relentless drab pebbles.  Where there’s hope, there is value in model watching, and dreams occasionally do come true. White Christmas please!

18z Control follows similar pattern in FI to Op run.

 At least it will be drier... 

The 18z shows the GFS backing away from the more extreme mild scenarios once we get over the next couple of days. While the run up to Christmas is obviously still in FI, currently it looks quite seasonal even if it's unlikely to be white. 

Today's 0z run is a typical example, delivering heavy snow from roughly London northwards:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/1010/ecmwf_0_294yfz4.png 

GFS Op 0z after the weekend has Atlantic LP drawing back for a while, and disturbances running more to the NW of Britain though these can drag troughs and fronts across Britain esp the north, centred 960mb Faeroes Mon 15th and 945mb Tue 16th with a small secondary 985mb crossing Britain Thu 18th while Scotland has its turn 985mb Moray Sat 20th. Then pressure drops over the N Sea and weak NE-lies start affecting the E coast. 

Flood warnings, both inland and coastal, being stood down, but it looks as if they'll be back from next weekend.

https://floodalerts.com/ 

ECM resembles GFS but treats the features on Thu 11th (FAX) and Thu 18th (GFS) as minor affairs while keeping the main area of LP still running past the NW of Britain. It too has LP transferring to the N Sea after the 20th, and bringing in N-lies, but these unlike GFS don't last and go back NW-ly. 

AIFS: London, maxima dropping progressively from ca 13C now to 2C Sun 21st (not as low as yesterday, and bouncing back on Mon 22nd). Rain at intervals, a brief drier slot about Thu 11th. Edinburgh, similar to London but starting at 10C.

GEFS at T+180 still shows most perturbations with a SW-ly influence; a few expand the effect of a blocking high over C Europe. Mean temp soon dropping from mild to norm and staying there, with good ens support, though op and control  are colder outliers in the SE after 21st. Never really dry, but rain concentrated around Wed 17th esp in S and SW, and as ever the far NW has rain heavy and continuous

Only a slight signal - but it is there.

The usual tease, lifting the dress to suck us in, only to spit out.   Same old pattern every winter. 

How depressing. Starting to look like Winter 2013/14 all over again, that particular "Winter" set the benchmark for the most awful in terms of near incessant rain and wind in this lifetime.

Less so about the wind.

You won't like the 6Z AIFS then - setting up a Hairdryer Special all the way from the Caribbean just in time for Christmas!

The NH view up to T300 or so was quite interesting with what I assume is an Artic/Siberian ridge gradually muscling West - it doesn't get close enough sadly and starts to decline a bit thereafter.  It was tantalisingly close to being a very encouraging set up but instead we end up with a fairly insipid air mass under HP that moves in from the W/SW.  All too far out for specifics but said HP is actually fairly clear IMBY (not so further west) so probably some frost/fog - doesn't look to have enough influence to avoid Atlantic air mixing in so probably not stagnant enough to get overly cold at the surface. 

It does I guess back up the tentative signs from earlier runs of HP having more of an influence heading in towards the final third of the month, albeit it's looking to be too far south for anything interesting. *If* it verified, a bit of a break from the rain for some would doubtless be welcome though and a few frosts would be nice!

Will have a look at the ens later and see if any of the members manage to bring that Sib/Artic HP ridge close enough to bring cold our way but suspect that's 'unlikely'.