Yes the 6z is what we want to see. Hopefully GFS is playing one of its blinders. 

A lot of the pieces are there (albeit far into FI), but the fly in the ointment would be, not for the first time, the AH. 

I could just see it deflecting that big low off NFL right over the UK.

Another interesting GFS,  the 12z doesn't quite get the cold in, but plenty of blocking again.

Looking like most of December will be a write off from a cold perspective. Not necessarily especially mild at least but the chance of a cold spell in the first half of the month is very low. Let's hope the second half is more interesting and there are a few hints in the output that it could well be.

I suppose we cant rule out a White Chistmas just yet! LOL but give it a week. 

The op ECM last night again just missed out on an SSW, with a +0.1m/s mean forecast for noon today. The ECM-45 charts are for midnight and that explains the difference - the reversal will only be for a few hours. 

The analysis as of noon yesterday showed +0.7m/s.

FAX; 998mb LP crossing S England tomorrow (not as deep as was once forecast, and BBC saying that even at this range the models disagree on the track) . New Atlantic LP 965mb pushing further fronts across Britain before partially filling and moving  to Ireland 979mb Tue 2nd. 

GFS Op: makes less of tomorrow's LP and also takes Tuesday's LP to N Scotland but then produces a 990mb local LP for Ireland Thu 4th. Then a procession of LPs from mid-Atlantic running towards or across Scotland through to Sun 14th, at first filling over the N Sea,  later making it into Scandinavia but winds remaining mostly from the SW.

ECM : also unimpressed by tomorrow's feature but then unlike GFS then brings LP further south, projecting troughs across Cornwall , while pressure rises over S Norway ca 1030mb from Mon 8th to Sat 13th and winds mostly from the SE

AIFS: London, maxima around 10C, cooler for first week but milder later, rain in small amounts persistent, perhaps drier after Wed 10th. Edinburgh, cold (3C) for the weekend, rising by stages to 12C by Fri 12th, dry around Wed 3rd but some rain at other times

GEFS: dip in temp Mon 1st, btu mean close to norm after that with only the usual amount of scatter in ens members, rain possible on most days in one ens member or another to Sat 13th, heavy at times in the west.

Something of a dog's dinner but the general theme is unsettled with temps near norm even if the models can't agree on the pressure distribution to achieve that.

See the nonsense has started!

https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/ec_aifs/2025/11/28/basis00/nhem/pslv/25120612_2800.gif 

Just need that energy to slide into the Med.

Nope!! 😣

Roll on a couple more days and it's this horror-show. Joy-sapping SW'lies and wet/windy.:

https://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/web/en/ec_aifs/2025/11/28/basis00/nhem/pslv/25121000_2800.gif 

Since this is the thread for discussing the model output I don’t think your comment is in the right place, since the models barely reach mid-December and the reliable output doesn’t go far into the first week.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=384&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 

To be fair, both GEFS and ECM reach late December or early January. 

The 12z is very different.

Not 'good different'

At t+372, the 850's are well into +'ive over most of the UK, with high pressure to our SE ridging over England, much of Wales and Eastern Scotland, and a complex low to our west.

Yes and based on the GEFS which go out to mid-month it's safe to say there will be no cold spell in the first half of December and barring a dramatic flip it's likely December overall will be very wet and fairly mild.

Thanks, that affirms my comments re. the current outlook to mid-December. That of course can change and it goes without saying that the 15-30+ day outlook of course can and probably will change as the days pass.

Yes overall then looking average or a bit milder than average but basically no sign of anything cold and wintry in that. Those are 850 temperatures and the lack of cold clear nights means it will probably average out a bit milder than average.

It’s possible and credible although I don’t have the mean cloud cover ensemble data so couldn’t comment on the lack of cold clear nights. The t2m data suggest the op run was on the milder side throughout the second half of the two week set.

It looks average for the foreseeable.  After mid December, who knows? Given that it's 2025/6, yes, you wouldn't bet on a cold spell but after mid December, it's the unknown. 

In the meanwhile, I'll go back to the documentary on the winter on 1982 currently on Channel 5. Back when we had real winters...