https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=21&time=384&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 

If it hangs about long enough, there might be SME cold air rotating around it, butt the strong northern jet cuts off the feed for a while, but at 2m the temperatures might provide an inversion, albeit more likely fog than frost. Might never happen and there is plenty of aquifer filling rain events before it Ever arrived in early December - if it Is even there on the next run....

ECM AI model goes stormy in deepish FI too, albeit the angle of attack on that serves to keep your part of the world away from the most 'interesting' stuff. 

All in all there's obviously a decent signal for a fairly prolonged unsettled spell across all the models at the moment, which raises the possibility of explosive LP development impacting somewhere in the UK. Some of the model runs have also toyed with little runner LPs that can bring strong winds to specific areas, which is worth looking out for too. 

It'll be interesting I guess to see how it all pans out, given potential for a SSW to shake things up too - last winter was characterised by the models showing prolonged zonal spells only for HP to return after 3-5 days. Not sure that'll be the case this year - if it does stay unsettled despite the apparent background drivers, you may get your wish for a more mobile season this year. 

The post 240hrs on the ECM raw this morning shows a set up almost identical to that of early December 2015, which I am sure most remember the incredible consequene of. 

This morning's ECM for 4th December (276hrs)

December 5th, 2015:

All 'just for fun' at this point. 

The similarities are definitely there. A 2015 December is certainly more likely than a 2010 one.

Its  deja vu every time   Coldies chasing shadows again.  If we cant have cold and snow then I'd rather we dispense with winter altogether and let global warming go into overdrive.   Girls in bikinis sunbathing in December would be nice to see

06z GFS

at least it won't be mild and westerly! - haha a bit of FI eye candy!

Never in doubt❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️🥶🥶🥶🥶

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

I'll continue to keep an eye on the SSW until it happens, or clearly isn't going to happen.

If there no cold prospects on the models then this option is better than HP gloom as now I seeing many sunny days in between fronts like yesterday and tomorrow again so the less HP influence the better is and less heating usage.  Seen yesterday ensemble show up and down lines mean more sunny opportunities between fronts.  

GFS; picks up the W-ly theme from FAX and, with the exception of a brief ridge of HP next weekend, continues it to Sat 6th when HP develops from the south, eventually 1040mb Irish Sea Wed 10th.

ECM; similar to GFS but brings disturbances in the W-ly flow further S e.g. Wed 3rd 980mb Clyde

AIFS: London, by Thu 27th maxima are running at about 12C before declining Sun 7th, train from time to time in w/b Mon 1st. Edinburgh, one very mild day Thu 27th, otherwise maxima about 7C and like London, dropping a little at the end. Light rain from time to time.

GEFS;  very mild Fri 28th, then close to or a little above norm, but in the S both op and control exceptionally mild from Sat 6th, Some rain at any time from 28th, heavier in  NW.

The hunt for the winter easterly goes on.

Somewhat more noteworthy being the 70+ MPH gusts for (North) coastal Cornwall/Devon I'd have said! 

No change in this mornings output - wet/unsettled for the foreseeable, biased as you'd expect to the North and West of the UK. The GFS op appears a touch optimistic in building HP in deep FI, given the rest of the ens, but I guess something to keep an eye on as it's been toying with greater influence of HP for a few runs. 

+GW needs to be added to the glossary of excuses, sorry I mean terms.

Its now the main driver.

A bit like on Christmas Day in 2013. It was a beautifully sunny day but stormy on Christmas Eve and again Boxing Day. Ideal for picking up broken-off roof slates and fallen fences while waiting for the turkey in oven to be ready.  😂

You're full of festive cheer, aren't you?

😉

GFS does nothing to lift the spirits, either, as it gradually assembles the PV and centres it increasingly over Northern Canada/Baffin Bay as we move through FI. Yuck.

AIFS keeps the theme of high pressure over the Arctic (although more pronounced on the Pacific side), whilst the original ECM leans toward the GFS evolution, although with small areas of high pressure trying to build.

GFS and GEM don't do anything similar so more an eyebrow quirk at the moment but worth I guess seeing if the ECM keeps it modelled. 

Outside of that and as you head in to FI on the GFS there's a fair bit of wet and windy stuff on offer, cold enough maybe for snow at times on the Scottish mountains. I'll have a look at the GEFS when they're out, the 6z had a small cluster of members with a UK or sort of Scandi HP in deep FI, suspect it'll be a mirage but a cold straw to clutch maybe if you're that way inclined😛

It's still there on the UK M 15z - and quite a bit punchier too with top gust of 97mph on the West Wales coast. Definitely an eyebrow raiser. 

The 0z ECM ensembles from yesterday no longer show an SSW, with the mean falling to just above zero. The 45-day weekly ensemble mean temperature charts, as expected, then show a prolonged mild spell through December, with deep pinks to start with transitioning to lighter pinks as the month goes on. Kent is the only place to - briefly - have near-normal temperatures later in the month, with the Christmas week chart showing a small bit of white there.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511240000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

EDIT: The 12z op run just about managed one, a one-day-wonder!

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f96&lng=eng&hem=nh 

FAX; Brief ridge of HP now before the Atlantic picks up strength again with LP ca 960mb between Scotland and Iceland, strong SW-lies and fronts for all before it quietens down again at the weekend - though a small runner 998mb may zip across N France on Sat 29th.

GFS Op ;  brings the 'runner' across Britain 1000mb Sat 29th, then back to the W/SW-lies but with more definite disturbances in the  flow e.g. 995mb Wed 3rd Wales, 960mb Sat 6th NW Scotland. As the main LP transfers from Iceland to S Scandinavia Mon 8th NW-lies backing N-ly by Thu 11th set in.

ECM; similar to GFS for most of the period, though with LP closer to Scotland. From Mon 8th the LP stays well to the NE however and the weather looks fine and mild with broad ridge of HP 1035mb+ from mid-Atlantic across Britain to Russia

AIFS; London, maxima up and down between 8 and 12C, one or two frosty nights, some rain w/b Mon 1st. Edinburgh, after avery mild Thu 27th (13C), maxima settle to a consistent 5C with small amounts of rain at any time

GEFS; temp peaks 28th and 2nd, dips 30th and 4th, none too far from norm, and mean then settling close to norm through to Thu 11th. Rain on many days after Sat 29th, especially around Sat 6th, heaviest in S & W (Cornwall has some big totals, Aberdeen relatively little) . Inverness manages a snow row of 19/33 on the 29th but nothing of consequence elsewhere/elsewhen.

A generally mobile and damp period coming up

That matches my observations, and would explain the reduction in rainfall in the extreme SE. There have been numerous occasions this last year (or more) when bands of rain heading E or SE across the country fade to nothing by the time they get here.