It's clear that this upcoming potential SSW is critical in terms of whether we see a prolonged milder spell for the first half of winter (as per the norm), or whether we get a seasonal near-normal spell (which would be noteworthy these days). At least, that's the ECM's take on it - other models are available!

I'll post the 12z op run chart once it comes out later this morning. 

It's not without interest, anyway!

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f168&lng=eng&hem=nh 

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng&hem=nh 

GFS Op; OTOH, this model keeps pressure fairly high over Britain from 26th with standard W-lies while the LP near Iceland gathers strength and moves in, 980mb Hebrides Sun 30th, followed by 960mb Orkney Tue 2nd, quite windy with gales in places. Then a ridge of HP Fri 5th which soon moves NE-wards, allowing E/NE-lies to threaten England by Mon 8th - but only a threat, not crossing the N Sea and fairly weak.

ECM; has LP running a little further S than GFS, brisker W-lies and LP Sun 30th is 985mb N England and Tue 2nd is  Skye, also 960mb. The ridge of HP does not materialise, nor any sign of a NE-ly; on Sun 7th there are long-fetch SW-lies and looking very mild in the S

AIFS; London, maxima 5-7C to Wed 26th then 10-11C for a week before dropping a little, rain this weekend, bits and pieces after that. Edinburgh, maxima around 5C at first, a couple of milder days Wed/Thu 26th/27th, then a steady 7C. Rain 23rd/24th and 29th, some at other dates too.

GEFS; cool with some rain now; a milder period introduced by more rain Thu 27th-Fri 29th, after which the ens members spread out, mostly mild esp at first, op run becoming cold later esp in S, and some rain in one run or other into Dec, often heavy in the NW

I stand by my view there is better odds for the hottest winter ever than lowland snow this winter.

Presumably in your back yard you mean as there is still snow in mine. Although to be fair to you, you did say this winter and it is still autumn!

The start of winter is looking mobile and unsettled based on the bulk of the model output at the moment but there are, as mentioned, a few hints every so often of high pressure to the northeast. However, as we all know, that happens quite frequently in the models in the winter but materialises much less often.

Would have no problem with that. Some active, seasonal Atlantic weather would make a nice change from the watered down scraps it has thrown this way over the course of this Autumn so far. 

If I remember right the very mild winter of 1988/89 had a short severe snowy cold snap end of November  before the T Shirts came out over Xmas

Zzzzz.....

Yes it did.. it was at the same time as the RAC rally. Chatsworth in Derbyshire had about 2 inches. The next snow was the end of February 89.

That marked for me anyway, the establishment of the era of ‘modern winter’ as some folk refer to it. 

We need Codge and Ian Brown back (or were they the same person, cant remember!)

Perhaps they were a trolling version of the same person? 

A short summary of the outlook as it appears at a glance: average, cool, mild, in that order (and rather mobile throughout).

I know that you know the difference but it looks more like a potential Euro High than a true Bartlett pattern?

To my simple mind the key is Hadley Cell and Azores high expansion. I think the debate on the semantics on the Bartlett is secondary. 

Yes I think that's fair. However, the expansion of the Azores high has IMO resulted in the Bartlett pattern developing more often. Whether we're heading in that direction this winter is of course still open to debate. 

Yes, Mike, that was the point to which I was alluding.  Rather than a permanent Azores high a Bartlett scenario has a series of high pressure cells sliding west-east into mainland Europe, not static HP cells.

Who knows, that’s what we might yet find evolving but I don’t see any consistent output showing it at the moment.

Beyond the next few days the outlook does look very westerly and mobile but things can change.

Is this not a string of Murr sausages ...

We now have to wait until the end of the year before we see widespread normal conditions, with only small pockets of white on the weekly charts before then. Indeed, the first half of December is back to its usual deep pinks - i.e. a degree or more above average.

It takes longer today for the vortex to spin up to it normal speed, too... funny really how there's such a difference in the longer term outlook between a brief -1 and say +3 zonal mean, especially considering it's just a displacement rather than a split.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511220000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601050000 

The 12z op still showed an SSW too, albeit only 2 days' worth rather than the 4 days shown the day before.

It's clear that any SSW is very finely balanced - obviously I'm hoping we see one, if only because it's only happened twice before in November, and not at all during my lifetime. 

GFS keeps LP near Iceland with strong W/SW-lies for the week following that, to Fri 5th, occasional deeper troughs embedded in the flow (Sat 29th, Fri 5th itself). Then pressure rises over S Scandinavia 1045mb from Sun 7th with S/SE-lies for Britain on the edge of this.

ECM similar to GFS but LP closer to Scotland than Iceland, British weather cooler and more unsettled for the week from Thu 27th

AIFS London maxima rising to around 10C, little difference day and night, heaviest rain in week beginning Mon 5th. Edinburgh, maxima in first week not displaying properly, after that around 7C, some rain at any time

GEFS cool to Mon 1st except a milder day Fri 28th, then near norm to Tue 9th, rain mostly around Sat 29th  in S or now in N, and then some later on for all