The LP now forecast for Tue 25th is a new development since 00z. But I don't think that one 975mb depression crossing Britain then (plus admittedly another lying in the N Sea  a week later, which is a long way off) constitutes VERY stormy, especially when then rest appears standard fare with LP centres running past N Scotland

As a repeating pattern, it's not '2010 good', but it's better than it usually is - and with the outside chance things get a little interesting.

Welcome home! Hope you had a good time. 😀

That looks likely based on the current output. 

That may be the case, but I am pretty happy with the way its panning out so far, with Claudia’s stalling front - with 36 hours of continuous rain - enough to fill the hitherto depleted chalk aquifer around these parts, filling up (finally) Lynford Lake, from its weird cracked dry basin state this summer, maintained until last week, and now we have an Arctic blast that has dispelled the super mild modern winter summer temperatures for something more normal - as effectively as a ghost-busters gun, and the blast is sustained sufficiently for a threat of snow IMBY perhaps. That is a big deal after another super heated summer. The background factors of easterly QBO, weak La Niña, warm SSTs in the North Pacific, strong hurricane season, favourable MJO cycle and (if it has any efficacy - which I doubt) an abundant Wild berry harvest), there is hope, if not expectation, that this winter will actually deliver something better than a 6 frost and one flake performance.

Only time will tell.....

How much rain did you get in the end? I think it cleared me quicker than expected and the stalled. Clever how it always finds a way !

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511160000 

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f192&lng=eng&hem=nh 

FAX: N-lies now set in with small disturbance1011mb running SE-wards tomorrow (Tue) implying snow for hills in the N. Some showery troughs around until Fri 21st when winds go back W-ly under influence of LP near Iceland, with fronts moving across from the W.

GFS Op : like FAX for this week but with worst of N-lies for E Coast. The LP Fri 21st brings a trough across on Sat, after which an Atlantic period of winds blowing from various points between NW and SW; LP near Scotland, most marked Sat 29th 980mb, and HP near S England, most marked Wed 3rd 1025mb

ECM: the trough after Fri 21st hangs around the N Sea to Mon 24th instead of moving on, and the final frame Thu 27th puts more emphasis on NW-lies with LP just off E Scotland.

AIFS: London, lowest maxima 3C Fri 21st, then an irregular rise to 10C by end of month, some rain from time to time heaviest Mon 24th. Edinburgh, similar but maxima a degree or two lower.

GEFS: cold (5C below norm) to Sun 23rd when rain introduces a long spell of mean temp near norm or a little above though with ens members increasingly spread, the majority on the mild side counterbalanced by a few much colder. Some rain from time to time after 23rd, plus some for the north on Wed 19th, this quite likely as snow in Scotland

The stalling front delivered about 4mm of rain here, and we still have a hosepipe ban.

On topic, GEFS 00z London has a snow row of 20 for Weds 19th Nov, while the ECMWF precip. rate chart that Brian kindly gave a link to shows a 4% chance of wet snow. I'm not holding my breath.

Ours is still in place too

Yep time to bring out straws even earlier, mountain torque, ssw , or whatever the latest abbreviation fad is. Might turn up March 2026

Stratospheric wind reversal is an acknowledge precursor to potential changes in the troposphere.  I fully understand the ‘clutching at straws’ point but there isn’t a haystack in sight yet….

I tend to look at the trend of the ECM stratospheric wind forecasts rather than just the daily snapshot; you get a better feel for the ‘direction of travel’ and this has been building for quite a few runs.  Of course it doesn’t mean it can’t all go into reverse, but it is nonetheless notable and worthy of highlighting in this thread.

🙂

And meanwhile we have alot of interest this week. 

Yes agreed it is looking quite underwhelming for early December, however the forecast slow-down in the SPV isn't due to happen until late November so perhaps the interesting charts won't show up till after that. Also none of the output I have seen in the extended range looks all that zonal yet therefore there is still potential for December. 

I think the main problem is once again a lack of properly cold air to tap into even with the right setup, however with the expected build in Scandinavian snow cover perhaps that could also improve over the next week.

Brian that sounds dangerously close to a winter in over post! 🤣

Joking aside it'll be interesting to see what the warm up back to average and perhaps a bit above does to the CET for the last 3rd of the month. I wouldn't bet against a record November as things stand. 

A good 2.5 inches - and of steady continuous rain, no deluges or floods, just perfect aquifer filler. Lynford lake is now almost full, a foot off. The chalk streams are all running again too. The front stalled right over south Norfolk, and even Suffolk saw a lot less rain. Seems daft wanting rain, which was once taken for granted, nowadays - rain is good in this area, and I fear summer - due to the heat and drought effects on our native plants, lakes and rivers. Autumn and spring is my new summer, and best for man, plant and beast. 

Presumably that is the Lynford near Lynford Arboretum, Grimes Graves etc?

Its very possible the current cold snap is the winter of 25/6.   The outlook is very bleak.  An endless train of Atlantic muck.  All hope is lost.  No wonder the old legends like Steve Murr have given up.   Sad, but life is mostly sh't. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511170000 

It's so good, in fact, that I've archived it here:

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/60n.png 

The 45-day charts have changed a bit too, with Christmas week now in view.

Next week and the week after have cooled a half-degree or so, with the Highlands now showing a negative anomaly next week. Beyond that it warms a little compared to recently, with e.g. the week before Christmas now pink across the UK rather than white, a half-degree warmer. Christmas week itself has near normal temperatures over Wales and much of the SW half of England, with pink elsewhere.

It continues to be encouraging from the POV of a coldie, as for once we're not seeing the deep pinks we so often see in the winter outlook charts. With things as they are these days I'd take "near normal" with open arms!