https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-240.png?6 

Now it seems above average temps and showers, perhaps the occasional frost. 

Starting to feel like season of the topplers could unfold. 

Hey ho, better than the hairdryer treatment for the festive period. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511140000 

The weekly T2M charts have lost the blues in the week before Christmas - as I said yesterday, I'm sure that was related to the SSW, so no surprise to see it gone today. On the flip side there are now three weeks with near-normal temperatures over much of England, including Christmas week. If nothing else, at least at this stage it seems our usual blowtorch Christmas is unlikely! Further north and west things are likely to be a little bit milder compared to the norm.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511140000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512290000 

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.png 

The cooler conditions look likely to last until the end of the coming work week with some northern areas possibly seeing snow to lower levels at times. After that it looks like temperatures will become milder and probably close to average for the time of year.

Wouldn't rule it out! Seems like this much vaunted front loaded winter is the next 3 days!

Only the very farthest (+384 hr) charts even reach the first day of winter so it will realistically be a week or two before we can have any clear idea of what the start of the meteorological season of winter may bring. 

Before then something close to or a bit colder than the “norm” for late autumn. A marked contrast to the first part of the month which seemed more like early autumn in terms of mildness.

This last month or so has been as remarkable as it has been an absolute delight with the warm temps. Naturally that usually comes with rain at this time of the year, but that was always going to redress itself - we don’t live in Ethiopia.

On the models, for southern areas it looks like we may have a drier, more high pressure-influenced spell on the horizon, but it’s far from a done deal. Other outputs show a more rampant Atlantic.

You don't need a login to view them here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx?chartname=ecmwfenspreciprate&chartlocation=london 

-8C at Santa Claus village and the outlook looking glorious cold below -10Cs at night to mid -5 to -10C day time so it look far much better than last year was completely snowless and very mild hence while we got mild wet easterly few times.  Let hope the models start showing something colder from the NE so once it occur we should get proper subzero temps and snowfalls this winter.

Seems like "Kefuffles" are becoming a default part if our modern winters ..along with rising heights to the south from Dec 7th  on.....

Same for here. Likely to end up being the first full Autumn where a single frost hasn't been recorded, here locally at least. Barely below average temps of 6.0c maxes and 1.0c mins fails to impress. 

Such a scenerio would have the potential to help push colder Arctic air over the north Atlantic / N. Europe eventually down the line.  As I said, a very long shot at this stage but something to keep an eye on perhaps for the early days of December. 

Last night's 12z op just about managed to squeeze out an SSW in 9 days' time:

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f216&lng=eng&hem=nh 

It's a displacement event rather than a split, however, but even so it would still shake things up somewhat.

No particularly exciting changes in the general setup today - chilly/cold for a few days, unsettled thereafter, temps TBC but a fair bit of mild scatter in the ENS for down here, as you'd expect in an unsettled setup. 

FAX; Storm Claudia drifting into the Med and filling, allowing N-lies to develop over Britain intensified by a small disturbance running SE-wards to the N Sea 994mb Wed 19th, but the N-ly flow weakening by Fri 21st.

GFS; takes up the FAx prediction and adds a trough drifting across Britain from the west at the weekend (Sat 22nd), followed by W/NW-lies for most of the following week to Fri 28th. Then a tendency for Lps from the Atlantic to take a more S-ly course (995mb Dover Sun 30th and 985mb SW approaches Tue 2nd)

ECM; more LP embedded in the W/NW lies e.g. 980mb E Anglia Tue 25th

AIFS; London, maxima declining steadily to 3C Fri 21st then a swift recovery to 9C with rain Sat 22nd, dropping to 3C again by Sat 29th but mostly dry, perhaps milder Sun 30th; Edinburgh maxima dropping from 5C now to 2C at the weekend with some rain/snow in the week, back up to 5C with rain Sat 22nd, then after a further dip becoming a mild (?) 10C with rain Sun 30th.

GEFS; cold already in the N, also developing in the S (5C below norm) with snow certain for hills in the N, even some chances in the S (Inverness snow row around 33/33 either side of Wed 19th, Brighton 6/33 on that date). temps gradually recover to norm from about Sun 23rd (but considerable ens spread) with rain becoming general and indeed heavier in the S