But not if you look at the ECM plot, which shows a marked slowing of the zonal winds later this month, way below the 90th percentile:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202511110000 

What was noticeable about the Nov/Dec 2010 cold spell was that the Azores High went on a meandering vacation, so the High Latitude Blocking was able to easily deflect the Jet and Atlantic lows on a much more southerly track.

Strat reversal looking like a distinct possibility. 

Before then in the south it will be mild for a day or so and then a spell of wet weather. 

Up here, cool and showery from tomorrow.

I just watched the 10-day forecast on the Met Office YouTube channel.  The middle of next week showed a 20-40% chance of snow even for the southern third, and higher as you go north.  Essentially a cold northerly flow establishes across the whole country by Monday and then there’s the prospect of a disturbance moving south mid-week.  It’s going to be a bit of a shock to the system to go from 4-5c above to several degrees below average.

In the short term Friday looks wet to very wet. Still understandable lack of certainty about the exact areas at greatest risk.

The 12z ECM has three times that for our zone! 😮

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php?ech=360&mode=25&carte=6 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20251112-2000/3b/ps2png-worker-commands-59875776cc-55qg6-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-exmbel68.png 

Perhaps this is the front loaded winter that was promised.  My roses are budding again. Never seen that before in November.  Lots of insects still around too. 

It's mid-November, Geoff!

Given the synoptics (cold flow from the north), any chilliness was always going to be least impactful in the south.

FWIW, MBY (not that much further north, relatively speaking) gets 5 days of 5-7c maxes and 1-3c mins, and a forecast of sleet, perhaps wet snow at times, Wed/Thur. As you say, nothing to write home about in itself, but it's just nice to get something different to winds from a westerly quadrant and regular rain.

Pitlochry is a different story; 14 days of maxes 3-7c and mins down to -3. Three days of predominantly snow (albeit light and probably wet). Even Lanark (south of Glasgow) gets 14 days of temps maxing 4-7c and mins down to -1, with snow falling for much of next Thursday)

Obviously these are forecasts based on models - but so, I guess, is your dismissive post.

Hopefully it's just a hors d'oeuvre before more proper wintry weather as we move through December. I note the 6z GFS is keen to bring back the theme of high pressure ridging to the north over/to the west of the UK in FI. Hopefully a trendsetter.

http://www.weatheriscool.com/media/u10serie_link_img.png 

Yes, as I mentioned several days ago it's shaping up to be quite an interesting event, as even though it rebounds quickly it still takes a long time to get back to average. Such a prolonged weakening should in theory be of cheer to cold weather fans.

The longer-range ECM T2M charts for next week continue to show a cold week across the UK, but the average spell in December has now all but disappeared, with pinks returning. 

"It's the Hope that kills you" 

Never gonna happen mate, you know it, we all know it!  At least looks like staying relatively dry down here once it topples. 

It feels notably colder here already in the wind and those colder conditions look set to hang around for at least a week or so. What happens beyond then is still uncertain. For context it is important to note that colder than average weather in November is colder than average for late autumn and does not mean widespread wintry weather. It is not yet winter.

The stratospheric warming is interesting (for the reason Darren mentions) and it will also be interesting to see any impact it has on synoptics down the line.

Had a covering on that morning, which is not something I am expecting to see from the current forecast charts, at least for my tiny grid point. 

We also had a covering from it. TBH, I'll be disappointed if I don't see falling snow in my locality in the next 10 days. 

To be fair it’s quite an impressive setup for the time of year. Here’s the 12z ECM so far at time of writing: 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=1&time=120&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24 

The GFS, which has been caused of overcooking wintry precipitation is currently showing a period of both falling and lying snow for the east at the end f next week, and I guess the settling of anything wintry may be determined if it falls either by day or by night. There have been many November days in memory bank when I awoke to see snow all about on roofs and grass, but dripping rapidly by 9.00am, as the sun rises. Those marginal overnight snow events that dont last used to be standard fare for November’s past, so a re-run - in these warmed times, will be a welcome trip down Nostalgia street.

Mean ECMWF zonal flow @ 10hpa now gone neutral and a few going into reverse although very slightly which could signal colder weather to come!?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20251113-2000/87/ps2png-worker-commands-59875776cc-bfq4t-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-u9lum2f3.png 

The mean goes negative, slightly, which would be unprecedented in the satellite era (1979 onwards) for November - it last happened in the late 60s AFAIK, but that's through educated looks at reconstructed charts rather than actual measurements. 

In theory that should deliver quite a punch to the developing polar vortex, and I would expect at the very least a reduction in the normal zonal westerlies for quite a while afterwards. The trend has been to increase winds back to nearer normal by the end of the year and that remains today - which would imply a milder end to the winter.

However, with sod's law in place, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it ended up as another "record cold and snowy" spell for North America - it would be refreshing if, just once, any cold effects were felt on the Eurasian side of the globe instead. 

The 45-day ECM charts continue to show a remarkably cold week next week, followed by a swift rebound to just above normal conditions - our norm these days. Encouragingly for cold fans, though, the December average spell is back on again, with a small bit of blue appearing for the first time in the week before Christmas - a very encouraging trend, and I'd put money on it being due to that reversal being shown for the end of November - although it could be coincidence that the temperature forecast has trended colder as an SSW is now forecast.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511130000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202512220000 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=132&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref