If it's any consolation, I'm sure you'll fair better than myself 😉

It'll be interesting to see what everyone's gone with.

The MO at the end of Oct was all pointing to a strong potential for it turning colder. That surely influenced most! I see Dave went for 7.35c. Ouch. I went a little above that, but I do suspect some will have followed the trend this year of months being a fair bit warmer generally, and gone well over 8c. It would need an almighty shift in the weather to get even close to the 91-20 average.

12.5 to the 6th

6.1c above the 61 to 90 average

3.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Ouch indeed! 

For some reason I'm not able to create a table so I've popped the guesses in as list - I'll make it look pretty at a later date!

November CET predictions

WindyWillow 9.3

Caz 9

GezM 8.8

Snowshoe 8.7

Spring Sun Winter Dread 8.5

Stormchaser 8.33

Grandad 8.3

Wallaw 8.3

redmoons 8.25

Frank 8.25

DingleRob 8.2

Ally Pally Snowman 8.1

Sussex snow magnet 8.1

Hungry Tiger 8

SaintSnow 7.9

Lanky 7.82

Jemblow 7.8

Dickieboy68 7.68

Bolty 7.6

Kendalian 7.45

Scillydave 7.35

Magda 7.1

Domma 7.1

Rick M 6.95

November all time CET 6.1

.... And yet we are all over the all time CET average and mostly all over the last 30 year average too... Cripes, is that last week of November going to put us in the freezer? It will need to, to give a value anywhere near our guess average of 8.02. Crumbs.

12.6 to the 7th

6.2c above the 61 to 90 average

3.7c above the 91 to 20 average

The mean CET for this week to the 7th was 12.62C with 1938 being a fairly distant second at 11.79C

Interestingly the Mean CET in 1938 actually increased in week 2 such that by the 14th November the mean for the first 2 weeks had gone up to 12.20 with a mean of 12.60 in the 2nd week

Not normal at all to have 2 solid weeks of it.

Given December 2015 was 9.7C (give or take a decimal) I would have thought 11 or even 12c is doable for November. All it would take is for the current synoptics to last more or less the month. Although I would appreciate the heating money saved, from a weather watching POV I hope it doesn't come to that .... 

I was thinking that myself- certainly 11 couldn't be ruled out given the synoptics we experienced in that December. Then some interpolation between that and September 2023 might suggest a 14+ for October- when 13.3 is the current tops.

We have come close many times since

12.2 to the 9th

5.8c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Well done Dave. I like the text formatting you've used here. Looks really good.  

🙂🙂🙂🙂

According to my analysis of the Hadley mean CET, November to date has been the warmest on record since the 6th and is a hefty 3.4°C above the 1991-2020 average as of 11th (which is 4.2°C above the 1961-1990 average).

However, the expected colder weather next week looks potent enough that this anomaly could be reduced by nearly 2°C by around 22nd November, depending on how the specifics play out.

OTOH, there are signs of mild(er) weather returning before month's end, though it might not be for long. Overall, I'm feeling alright about my estimate at this stage, which is 1.03°C above the 1991-2020 average to be precise.

The far south is still expected to be warm tomorrow- perhaps up to 16 on the S Coast.

It's 17 here today after a 12 degree night- not CET representative of course but what a remarkable first half November.

As James mentioned, the set up after the cold spell- perhaps the weekend after the coming one- will affect the ranking of this November.

Is the official CET measurement still taken at Rothamstead, Pershore & Stoneyhurst? If so, a brief calculation using the crude BBC max/min values shows CET for the 13 days after today as being a whisker over 6c.

Again a perhaps simplified calculation but if the CET for the first 13 days sits at 12.0c and the next 13 is at 6.0c, then the CET figure going into the last 4 days of November would be 9c.

All can - and will - change, though