The Weather Outlook

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Spring Sun Winter Dread
13 November 2025 14:22:25
Hopefully it drops a little below 9 for the sake of my guess :))

I always find it a bit disappointing when the record setting potential of a month drops off in the second half after such an amazing start, as this year now seems set to do.

My memory of 1994 is that the warmth just kept coming even later on in the month. Next week is probably going to ruin any chance we had of beating it now unless we get a proper SW blowtorch in the final week 

Gavin D
14 November 2025 13:15:18
Hadley

12.1 to the 13th

5.7c above the 61 to 90 average

3.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
15 November 2025 13:49:29
Hadley

12.0 to the 14th

5.6c above the 61 to 90 average

3.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
16 November 2025 13:20:55
Hadley

11.8 to the 15th

5.4c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
17 November 2025 13:28:28
Hadley

11.6 to the 16th

5.2c above the 61 to 90 average

3.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Dickieboy68
17 November 2025 22:16:45
Yep, even though it is dropping 0.2 per day, the average was so high we really could all be under the month's value - has that ever happend before, all guestimates too high or too low ???
Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004

Gavin D
18 November 2025 13:01:18
Hadley

11.2 to the 17th

4.8c above the 61 to 90 average

3.0c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
19 November 2025 12:38:40
Hadley

10.7 to the 18th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.6c above the 91 to 20 average

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
19 November 2025 14:16:19
A drop of nearly a whole degree in 2 days. That's a plummet!
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Dickieboy68
19 November 2025 22:07:37
.... And the value us still above all of us!!! Maybe, just maybe the number will get into our range of guestimates by the weekend, some cold nights to come in the relatively clear CET triangle...
Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004

Saint Snow
20 November 2025 10:29:15

.... And the value us still above all of us!!! Maybe, just maybe the number will get into our range of guestimates by the weekend, some cold nights to come in the relatively clear CET triangle...

Originally Posted by: Dickieboy68 

Although temps recover a bit from the weekend, the daily CET numbers still look lower than what the ongoing average will be, thus nudging it down further right to the end of the month.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Stormchaser
20 November 2025 10:58:53
After a less cold but not all that mild interlude from this weekend through to approx. Wednesday, there's a broad signal for a mild finish to the month, though to what extent remains to be seen.

The GFS 06z gives me a final CET estimate of about 8.7°C, but I know it tends to overestimate the overnight lows in cold setups, so that could easily be a few tenths too high. Given I went for 8.33°C I'd not mind that at all.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gavin D
20 November 2025 12:49:03
Hadley

10.3 to the 19th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.3c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
21 November 2025 13:34:30
Hadley

9.9 to the 20th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average

2.0c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
22 November 2025 13:27:36
Hadley

9.4 to the 21st

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Ally Pally Snowman
22 November 2025 15:26:35

Hadley

9.4 to the 21st

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Still remarkably high, something in the 8s a likely finish now.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Dickieboy68
22 November 2025 21:39:01
9.4, very nearly at the top boundary of our experts' list, should start to move through us from here, Wednesday looks like a most particular hit, half a degree drop that day perhaps. Should be 8.something, might get to 7.something, won't get to 6.something.... 

Cheers All!


Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004

Gavin D
23 November 2025 13:38:10
Hadley

9.2 to the 22nd

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
24 November 2025 14:44:41
Hadley

9.0 to the 23rd

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Stormchaser
25 November 2025 14:10:48
Latest GFS run gave me a final CET estimate of about 8.3°C and that could still be a little on the high side given we've at least more cold night to come, for which it tends to overestimate the minimums.

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:c3yk6es2hmt5umw5s6z5fbgw/post/3m6hjbravnk2a 

Of course, I'd quite like it to be spot on 😁


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gavin D
25 November 2025 14:30:08
Hadley

8.9 to the 24th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

Saint Snow
25 November 2025 15:36:24

Latest GFS run gave me a final CET estimate of about 8.3°C and that could still be a little on the high side given we've at least more cold night to come, for which it tends to overestimate the minimums.

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:c3yk6es2hmt5umw5s6z5fbgw/post/3m6hjbravnk2a 

Of course, I'd quite like it to be spot on 😁

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Given what I was thinking I was looking at 10 days ago, I'd be delighted if 8.3c was spot on!!

Would be a bit of a 'great escape'


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Gavin D
26 November 2025 14:15:42
Hadley

8.7 to the 25th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
27 November 2025 13:04:02
Hadley

8.5 to the 26th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 91 to 20 average

Gavin D
28 November 2025 15:41:03
Hadley

8.5 to the 27th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 91 to 20 average

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