2019 = 6.2

2020 = 8.5

2021 = 7.2

2022 = 9.1

2023 = 7.4

2022 = 7.2  

Average 91/20 = 7.3

All time high 9.9 in 1994

Low this century 5.1 in 2010 (1985 was 3.8)

The Met Office are suggesting a slightly increased chance of a colder than average start to winter - so will we see that rare as hen's teeth beast... a colder than average month?!! It's got to happen sometime. The models though are currently suggesting a milder than average start to the month with a potentially balmy bonfire night. It's another tricky one to call.

My guess though is for something just a little bit above average at 7.35c

As ever predictions by email by midnight on the 31st October - be on time or risk being turned into a pumpkin!

Just to make life a bit easier 😊

🙂🙂🙂🙂

11.8 to the 1st

5.4c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 91 to 20 average

10.4 to the 2nd

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 91 to 20 average

10.6 to the 3rd

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

11.5 to the 4th

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Insanely mild atm, and it goes almost unnoticed as we are all so used to it by now.  18c + again today 

I love it. Now I'm on my own and don't have to heat the house like a sauna i can save a shed load on heating.  🙂🙂🙂

Could it be a November of 2 halves with a big mid-month drop in temperature? We got a lot of those in the early noughties. 

Let's hope so, any cool down still far off though.

First half warmest since 1994 and second half coldest since 1993.

Otherwise noughties Novembers were distinctly uninteresting for the most part IIRC

Agreed. There were a few Novembers with cold snaps around middle of the month but these were sandwiched between milder weather. Then of course in 2010 we had to wait until the last week of the month for it to get really interesting! 

It might happen🙂

But then... as I waited for the bus, more and more snowflakes began to feature amongst the raindrops. Within the space of about 10 minutes, there was a full transition from rain to snowfall so heavy that it began to accumulate within minutes despite the soaking wet surfaces.

So began what proved to be the most extraordinary run of weather in my life to date. While December 2015 was statistically on par for anomalous temperatures but in the other direction, it was the conflict with the long-term warming trend that makes 2010's stand out more.

Important disclaimer: I'm not intending to imply that Nov-Dec 2010 will be closely followed in 2025, although I can see the potential for some loose similarities of weather patterns for at least part of that time.

Incredibly mild nights.

12.2 to the 5th

5.8c above the 61 to 90 average

3.2c above the 91 to 20 average

Scrolling through since 1980, there have been no other November days with a CET mean of 15, only 5 others of 14+, and 17 of 13+. 

Not sure about pre-1980 but this could be a record. 

(Worth noting perhaps that in 2014 it was 16.8 on 31st October- such a close miss. And in December 2015 there was 13.1 on 19th.)

Just checking back to the start of daily means in 1878, the record was 5th November 1938 with a mean of 15.5C and yesterday was the only other November day with a 15C+ mean

(5th November 1938 also has the UK date record with several spots in Essex and E Anglia hitting 21.1C)

We even had some very mild weather in the first week. Those last few days then absolutely decimated the CET of course. I believe 1993 followed a broadly similar pattern though I only really remember the cold and snowy end to that month. 

So wasn't too keen to get swept up in the "warmest November on record!" hype when submitting my guess...

It then set the scene for that infamous December, which was as extraordinary as 2010 for all the opposite reasons.

Another balmy day today , driving in London with the windows open. Hopefully the cold will turn up soon.