...and still out in the lesser reliable timeframe.

Its interesting how the GFS and ECM differ with the track of their disruptive LP's, and their associated airflows (ECM milder). Plus the ECM holding on for another 3 days to the 22nd - well into FI. 

It's as though they are programmed to assume the high won't hold forever (it never does, of course) so a breakdown of HP is modelled as a matter of principle. 

I've got a feeling this week here in the SE will be more mizzley than shown on account of the North Sea fetch. 

More runs needed. 

Need this to come closer to remove this unwanted dirty HP out, it seem taking too long to go away as in the past the gloom last for a day to few days but not 2 weeks or above non-stop.  I like to see the pattern change to what we had in September pattern which was warmer and lot of sunshine in between fronts.

GFS Op 00z; follows Fax - the LP from the SW takes its time but by Mon 20th the HP has dispersed and LP 995mb centred Cornwall covers Britain. For most of the following week Britain is under slack LP; but some more structure on Fri 24th when LP near Iceland swings a trough across from the west. Then a brief rise of pressure before LP near Iceland resumes its influence. Ex-hurricane, small but intense, showing on W Atlantic at this time.

ECM; like GFS at first but on Mon 20th the LP is centred SW Scotland 995mb. By Thu 23rd a new LP mid Atlantic 980mb is projecting a trough to N Ireland

GEM; like GFS at first but on Mon 20th the LP is centred NE Scotland 985mb. This slowly moves E-wards and on Thu 23rd is in the N Sea with strong N-lies for Britain.

GEFS; mean temp close to norm through to Tue 28th though op & control appear as cold outliers later on in the S. Rain from Sun 19th, heavy in some runs in the S & W.

AIFS to Tue 28th; London, maxima 15C or a little below, though milder with rain Sun 19th - Fri 24th. Edinburgh maxima 11C, milder from Fri 24th, rain as for London though tailing off on the Friday

There days I don't expect rain unless it's 90%+. Even then I've often been disappointed.

Agree completely. 

I'm disappointed the opposite way!

If it says 10% or 20%, I know it's going to rain at some point here.

I was even walking through some fine drizzle ('mizzle') this morning, when the apps said 0% chance of rain.

That's certainly a strong signal for a wet spell for the SE, so it may stop people talking about the 'drought' for a bit if it comes off as shown.

GFS Op 0z shows the same, but take s the LP further north than it did yesterday, 995mb Rockall Mon 20th NE Iceland 995mb and on to Wed 22nd from where it extends a broad trough of cold air to Britain. The pattern then returns to W-lies but with another large-scale trough passing through on Sat 25th, and a much deeper , colder and local one 970mb Wales Mon 27th. This drifts into the N Sea with N-lies behind and a small secondary LP in the Channel.

ECM which had the approaching LP on a more northerly course yesterday, now runs it SE-wards to Wessex 990mb Mon 20th. This model also has a modified second trough later in the week, 990mb SW Scotland Fri 24th with NW-lies for Britain as a whole.

GEM takes a middle course with the 995mb isobar encircling Britain on Mon 20th. It also has the trough later in the week based on a centre 975mb off W Scotland but extending well south. 

GEFS shows mean temp now near norm, and as the norm decreases, the mean drops even more and drops some 8C by the end of the month in the S, more in the N, sometimes higher, sometimes lower, on its way there. Moderately good ens agreement. Rain starts Mon 20th and is quite heavy and persistent to the end of the month - if anything continuous in the south, more in pulses in the north. 

AIFS differs with respect to temps: London, maxima from 13C now to 15C at the end of the month, rain mostly on Sun 19th and Thu 23rd, not as heavy as implied by GEFS. Edinburgh maxima also rise, from 12C to 14C, rain mostly from Wed 22nd and again less than shown in GEFS

We need about 500mm of rain nationwide by the end of February when warm weather returns. I'll believe it when I see it.

There shouldn't really be opinions about weather here but I increasingly think rain is lovely - especially if the alternative is dust, drought, dead crops and very little to drink or for nature.

GFS Op 0z; continues to move the LP in from the Atlantic and deepen it 990mb SW Scotland Mon 20th. It drifts slowly across to the N Sea. Then on Saturday a more significant LP moves down from Greenland, importing cold N/NE-lies and reaching Shetland 980mb Sun 26th with pressure low all the way south to the Channel. Again this takes its time to move away, delayed by the development of secondaries on its W flank running south e.g  to East Anglia 1005mb Fri 30th. An ex-hurricane at this time in the Canadian Maritimes looks unlikely to affect British weather.

ECM; similar to GFS but the LP from Greenland arrives a day or so earlier, and on Sat 25th the trough of LP extends not just to the Channel but well down into Biscay.

GEM; like GFS but keeps pressure generally lower over Britain mid week Wed 22nd.

GEFS; mean temp near or occasionally above norm to Sat 25th, after which the mean continues near norm but a wide spread of ens members with op and control taking turns as cold and mild outliers. In the S, moderate amounts of rain from Mon 20th onwards, heaviest in the week following the 20th; in the N rain mostly to days around Mon 20th and Fri 24th, less wet at other times (but the far NW as ever has some heavy rain and continues it after the 24th)

AIFS; London, maxima about 14C to Sat 25th then 10C, rain Sun 19th, Fri 24th and Tue 28th. Edinburgh, maxima 10-12C until Sat 25th then 6-7C, significant rain Sun 19th, occasional bits and pieces after that.

GFS Op 0z; follows on from FAX and slowly moves the LP to the N Sea, after which more LPs arrive; Fri 24th from the NW to 985mb Moray, Sun 26th from the SW to 995mb Wales, Thu 30th 1005mb Brittany and Fri 31st 980mb Orkney, the last of these with strong N-lies behind it.

ECM; similar to GFS but prefers a more S-ly track for FRi 24th (across N England) and Sun 26th (along the Channel).

GEM; like the above two models at first but then winds up a much deeper depression Thu 23rd 965mb Cape Wrath slowly drifting SE-wards and filling, little sign of identifiable LP along the Channel though this deep deprssion spreads a trough that far S-wards.

GEFS; mean temps near norm at first but below norm by a few degrees for the last week of October, copious rainfall from Sun 19th onwards, esp heavy in S & W

AIFS; London, maxima about 14C to Wed 22nd, then about 10C, rain at times w/b Sun 19th but drier later and never as heavy as forecast by GEFS. Edinburgh, maxima also dropping around Wed 22nd but from 11C to 7C, some rain Sun 19th and Thu 30th, minimal amounts at other times.

The contest this morning is between pattern matching AIFS and calculated GEFS which come to different conclusions on the amounts and persistence of rain next week.

Are you writing off Winter already?

😉

Sleet reaching the south east and East Anglia.

Maybe climate change is emphasising the NW/SE split in classic differences of weather. 😉

You or someone else recently used the term the "far south east". It's a good one IMO. The differences between the weather in the "far south east" and what we get here seem quite significant. I've noticed it a number of times through the course of the year.