Predictions to be emailed by midnight on the 30th September.

Fwiw my prediction this month is for a pretty mild one at 12.15c

Here are the Stats:

All time CET 9.73

1991 - 2020 CET 10.59

All time Warmest

Year    Temp

2001  13.20

1969  13.10

2005  13.00

2006  12.90

1921  12.80

All time Coldest

Year    Temp

1740    5.30

1817    6.40

1683    6.50

1692    6.50

1896    6.90

1991 – 2020 Warmest

Year    Temp

2001  13.20

2005  13.00

2006  12.90

1995  12.70

2011  12.50

1991 – 2020 Coldest

Year    Temp

1992  7.70

1993  8.30

2003  9.10

2008  9.50

2012  9.50

Thanks Gavin. 😊 

I wonder what the month will bring?!

I'll go for 11.75C. 

🙂🙂🙂

13.3 to the 1st

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 91 to 20 average

13.5 to the 2nd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

14.1 to the 3rd

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 91 to 20 average

13.4 to the 4th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 91 to 20 average

October CET Predictions

13.2 to the 5th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 91 to 20 average

If recent output carries through, then there's potential for it to be a particularly warm month. I'm regretting going so low (which is mad, given I've still gone almost 1.2c above the all-time average!)

.

Crazy times Saint - I've lost track of when the last below average month was let alone well below average. 

The shift in the climate from my childhood is so rapid that it's unnerving. 

It's an overly simple way of looking at it but essentially you have to live 200m up a hill now to get the same climate that you did at sea level when I was a kid.

13.4 to the 6th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

In fact I have a growing concern that it might behave like September, with low minimums dragging the CET down considerably.

Much water to pass under the bridge though, so... we'll see!

I guess it all depends on how cloudy the high is. An easterly flow suggests North Sea clag, with the question mark over how far west that travels. Two of the 3 CET stations are in the western half of the country, but of course Pershore doesn't have the Pennines as a barrier.

But then, much can and will change. As you allude to, GFS 0z throws out an FI with 'our' high retrogressing to Greenland and a big Scandy low, ushering in a cold northerly for the last week of the month!

13.3 to the 7th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

(Also that weeping might be the only rain we get too!!)

13.3 to the 8th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 91 to 20 average

13.0 to the 9th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 91 to 20 average

On the one hand, it is expected as October is a rapidly cooling month, so you would expect the CET to be higher in the first third or so. The forecasts are hinting at some colder nights though next week, so as you say, it will be interesting to see how far it drops.

13.0 to the 10th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 91 to 20 average

12.8 to the 11th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 91 to 20 average

This month is more notable for being dry than anything else so far, temps have been incredibly boring. I've got courgettes still growing in the garden albeit slowly due to the lack of low minima , despite being in a relatively frost prone spot. I'm finding myself still watering them... but equally there has been nothing especially warm, just near to slightly above average all the time so far. Expect this will get shaken up by the end of the month of course