'Gabrielle' now down to 30% chance of development (NHC) when at one stage it was 90%. I don't think it even reached TS status.

What an anti-climax!

something is going with the upper level winds and dry air incursions in this part of the world. Not happening on the west coast

An active Atlantic hurricane is often thought to increase our chances of a cold winter here in the UK further down the line so from that perspective, the omens aren't really looking good for that.

Yes where the heck did that vanish to!? Last time I checked a couple days back on NOAA it had a 70% chance of developing in 24hrs and a 90% chance of developing in the next 48hrs and was in red...!?

Well - What an uninteresting and uneventful hurricane season this is turning out to be then - of course good it's not impacting lives on landfall but a little boring for a weather enthusiast which is unusual given the developing La Nina and warmer than average SST's in both the tropical and N. Atlantic.

There is still quite a bit of time left in the season so it will interesting to see if the consensus forecast for an above average season in terms of activity turns out to be correct.

No activity forecast for the Atlantic for the next seven days (NHC) so it'll have to get a move on. 

Where's all the heat energy gone to?

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/another-round-of-weird-peak-season-quiet-in-the-atlantic-tropics/ 

Various hurricane specialists scratching their heads as to where all their season's forecasts went wrong. Apparently Deep Mind AI was the first to predict the demise of 91L which would have been Gabrielle had it developed.

EDIT (18th) now forecast to develop as hurricane east of the Bahamas by Monday 22nd

GFS as her hitting the Azores, but too far away to take seriously. 

But still on track to hit the Azores on Thursday this week as a tropical storm after spending some days as a hurricane 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/210236.shtml?cone#contents 

Gabrielle now a Cat 4   Way stronger than forecast though she has reached her peak. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/222034.shtml 

Meanwhile there are two other potential hurricanes on the mid Atlantic with odds of development of 80% and 50% within 7 days. But nothing in the Gulf of -er - Mexico or the Caribbean despite SSTs in the southern part of both of 30+ C.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/#ocean-1 

Meanwhile Typhoon Ragusa is threatening S China having had central pressure 900mb at one stage. Some nice graphics in the link.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/hurricane-gabrielle-cranks-up-in-the-atlantic-typhoon-ragasa-heads-for-southern-china/ 

NHC now officially calling it "Gulf of America".  Pathetic but I guess they don't want anymore sackings. 

Gabrielle expected to hit Azores as a proper hurricane.  Does anyone have a link to satellite imagery of it. Would love to see what she actually looks like whilst still a Cat 4

That will likely cause some damage then

The inactive hurriane season has led to it not being a proper wet season in some areas of the carribean

The NHC has satellite imagery for each storm usually a little link at the top right of the box with all the other stuff (like forecast advisories, discussions etc.)

This is the current one for Gabrielle and yes it looks impressive just now: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL072025 

ok thanks.  

Gabriella is fascinating because we have a non-trivial risk of a ultra rare mainland European TC landfall. The storm looks to maintain its tropical characturistics for a while. This should be very interesting watching.

Interesting they mention "stingjet" over the Azores.   How many people live there? They must be used to wind, but this is not going to be fun

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/242037.shtml 

While watching the Atlantic, don't forget super-typhoon Ragasa, the most powerful storm anywhere this year,  with wind speeds of 162mph in S China, and 2 million (!) people evacuated. The winds have died down as it has now moved inland but there's still a lot of rain to come in N Vietnam. The forecast appears to have been accurate so the death toll was minimised, mainly when a dam (not a man-made one, but the result of an earlier landslide) burst in Taiwan and swept away part of a village.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyd580lx3mo 

That implies it will already be posttropical by the time it gets there. A less interesting scenario.

Now officially post tropical, totally sheered to death with dry air incursions. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL082025 

TS 9 is now named Imelda and expected to run along the florida coast before heading out into the Atlantic as a full hurricane.

Trump has been lucky. He dismantles NOAA and then all the hurricanes run off into the Atlantic without making landfall, so demonstrating that a full strength NOAA was never needed to produce detailed forecasts for the US of A itself.