That was pretty rapid intensification! Hopefully its track means that any impacts will be relatively limited.

NHC concerned about extraordinary surf, wave heights and rip tides even if, as they expect, Erin stays offshore.

Yes, I saw that in their advisory, but compared with 100+ mph winds and catastrophic rainfall it is less of a worry, albeit still potentially deadly.

A quick heads up (or catch it on demand), there is currently a documentary on Channel 5 marking the the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Since waves have been known to outrun the storm which generates them, it will be interesting to see whether Erin produces unusually large swells along the south and possibly west coasts, while Erin itself grinds to a halt near Iceland. There was an event of this nature in Feb 1979, when in calm weather Chesil Beach was overtopped and Chiswell village flooded.  See page 14 in https://hazards.colorado.edu/uploads/workingpaper/wp37.pdf

The idea that Erin will produce unusually large waves while still staying offshore confirmed on the radio this morning by Dr Simon Boxall of Dept of Oceanography, Southampton.

In fact he suggested that the approach of the waves will be from the southwest, affecting Cornwall and Pembroke, and where they run at only a slight angle to the shore, will pile up large quantities of water which then escapes as riptides. He and the RNLI reckon these are the main danger to swimmers.

As a surfer for 20 years an ex hurricane that stays in the Atlantic and stalls or moves very slowly will produce a huge ground swell. I’m expecting it to arrive this evening and due to the way the continental shelf works the swell jacks up quickly as it slows. I’d expect a closing break of 8-10 ft ….Im sure the large guns are being waxed in anticipation. I should also say we have a 7m spring tide this evening so the coastguard will be busy with holiday makers getting caught out by surge waves.

Hmmm 🤔 looking at the satalite ex Erin still has something of a 'tropical' or sub tropical look about it.

Quite a marked front too. Is this the herald of a major pattern shift for the UK? It has to change at some stage.

looks like it. we have weeks of cold zonality to look forward to.  Just as well I am getting my boiler replaced this week and didnt wait till september

THanks , good 6 part series on Sky documentaries as well.  But not really weather related, more politics

On the other side of Asia, typhoon Kajiki is battering Vietnam - 560,000 people ordered to evacuate their homes, wind speeds ca 120mph and 12-16 inches (30-400 mm) of rain

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4gqy5zpev5t 

The swell from Erin is just beginning to show its face at the seven stones lightship wave buoy. It has jumped from 1.10m at 16:00 to 2.40m at 18:00. I would expect that to continue to increase throughout the night. 

Yep - I'm staying on St Martins in the Isles of Scilly at the moment and a lovely long swell is rolling in to the back of the Island.

In fact I've just got  back from a meal in the Sevenstones Inn named, of course, after the lightship.

Rather like last year, predictions of a busy season look way off. Despite the oceans being boiling hot, seems upper level wind shear is too strong to promote development of cyclones in this part of the world at least.  

The next significant hurricane is brewing for the Atlantic. An interesting test of models coming up as GFS takes it north of the Caribbean island arc, Euro models including ECM take it head on, and AI models run it further south  again into the Caribbean Sea. 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/09/eyeing-a-potential-future-tropical-storm-in-the-eastern-atlantic/ 

The Pacific remains more active with Kiko threatening Hawaii (lot of uncertainty there) and Lorena bringing heavy rain to S California. 

The Atlantic TS probability is up to 80% within 7 days, so unlikely not to become TS Gabrielle, and go on to become a hurricane

And still likely to miss the US coast altogether. Instead its us who are getting the strongest winds in the atlantic

latest GFS has Gabrielle cutting through the Caribbean 

Been a quiet Atlantic season so far in terms of hurricanes? We are over half way through...

This looks like it is set to make landfall in USA (Carolina's) if this came off @ +348

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH06_348_1.png 

The one in the Atlantic seems to be tracking much further south now,

Going straight over the Caribbean (due to fly there next weekend) 

Trying to work out what it is likely to be the time it hits the windward islands, depression or hurriane?

too much uncertainty.  We will have to wait for it to form first. GFS 00z has it over Dominican Republic next Sat. 

Thanks ECMWF seems to show it disappearing

Yes, Gabrielle is dead before it was even born!  Just shows how this is turning into another shambolic season.