The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
12 August 2025 18:03:30

Widespread max heat today Ross-on-Wye,  Benson and Northolt all 33.4c


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
12 August 2025 18:40:35

Met Office app says  34c for Leeds tomorrow. Really?  We will see.  But that's alarming and potentially in the top 5 ever. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Essan
12 August 2025 18:46:06

Frustratingly I only made it to 24.5°C today so no three day heatwave threshold for me. It has however still been very pleasantly warm.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If I take the MetO automated forecast, then at least another 6 days above heatwave threashold here, with Thurs the "coolest" at 27c.   Only Friday currently showing as above 30c though - when I'll be at the Worcester Beer Festival 😃 


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

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Rob K
12 August 2025 18:59:26

33.4C is the highest max I have seen today, at three sites: Ross-on-Wye, Benson and Northolt. Another two (Heathrow and Brize Norton) hit 33.3C, so certainly some widespread heat!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
12 August 2025 19:15:39
Today's maximum temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank was 28.2°C which makes today our hottest day of this month so far, and our second hottest day of this year so far.

The Met Office are predicting a similar temperature for tomorrow as well, but I reckon that it might be slightly hotter than that tomorrow which might be enough to make that our hottest day of the year so far.

In addition to that, Thursday isn't forecast to be quite as hot but the Met Office are still going for a maximum of around 25°C even on that day which will be enough for an official heatwave to be actually recorded here if that comes off.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Hungry Tiger
12 August 2025 19:38:11

I don’t think he has posted for quite a while. That said, for the avoidance of doubt, he is always very welcome here.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I quite agree. I'd like to see him back.  🙂🙂


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



tierradelfuego
12 August 2025 19:48:58

 grade33.4C is the highest max I have seen today, at three sites: Ross-on-Wye, Benson and Northolt. Another two (Heathrow and Brize Norton) hit 33.3C, so certainly some widespread heat!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Interesting to see it matches my max exactly, well the 33.3c anyway. As much as a VP2 isn't professional, it seems pretty accurate given our proximity to Benson at least. I'm sure the daytime FARS and nothing other than grass below it to radiate heat helps of course.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

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Jiries
12 August 2025 20:17:25

Met Office app says  34c for Leeds tomorrow. Really?  We will see.  But that's alarming and potentially in the top 5 ever. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

If Leeds predicted 34C then here 35C and 36-37C to the SE as Brian posted it this morning a 37C is shown on the map.  Need a proper sunrise to sunset without cloud hindrance to deliver those temps.  Good luck to it tomorrow.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
12 August 2025 21:31:21

If Leeds predicted 34C then here 35C and 36-37C to the SE as Brian posted it this morning a 37C is shown on the map.  Need a proper sunrise to sunset without cloud hindrance to deliver those temps.  Good luck to it tomorrow.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The main concentration of heat tomorrow will be in the North and East. Cooler down South, relatively. 

Most of the prolongation of the heat from Friday onwards seems to be concentrated in the South West and central South though. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Jiries
12 August 2025 22:44:01

The main concentration of heat tomorrow will be in the North and East. Cooler down South, relatively. 

Most of the prolongation of the heat from Friday onwards seems to be concentrated in the South West and central South though. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

This heatwave are very weird one and for sure Welsh border and the far west will take the crown again tomorrow again so can’t see further north and east get it to beat them. Uppers here tomorrow 17 to 18 so around 33.

The Beast from the East
13 August 2025 00:43:08

looking through the latest GEFS, seems very unlikely 40 will be achieved this summer.  So it will be 3 years since 2022.  once again a case of the european heat dome never really making it across the channel.  We should be grateful for that though. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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lanky
13 August 2025 07:32:45

Taking inspiration from his thread, I think it would be worth doing the stats (if at all available - I'm not sure how or where) for a new measure I'll call heatwave degree days. That is, cumulative degrees at or over 30 (where 30 = 1 HDD, 31 = 2). That gives us a measure of both frequency and intensity.

I calculate the 1995 HDD based on his 32 days as 99.2. That implies the "average" of those 30+ days was around 32C. You could get 99.2 HDDs with 99 days of 30C, 50 days of 31C, 33 days of 32C, 25 days of 33C, 20 days of 34C or 17 days of 35C.

Anyone know where we can get those daily maxes for other years?

Originally Posted by: TimS 

I posted earlier in the thread about how this is possible from 2 sources I am aware of and showed the base figures for 1995

The MetO Daily Diary gives the daily extreme max for the UK  in textual form (not as a data table)

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/collection_86058de1-8d55-4bc5-8305-5698d0bd7e13/

 and the Met Office Hadley data repository can give 5km (among others) daily maxes for 1931-2024 in .nc format where you could do what you propose on both a national and location basis

https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-hadobs/data/insitu/MOHC/HadOBS/HadUK-Grid/v1.3.1.ceda/5km/tasmax/day/v20250415 

You would need plenty of spare time and some software assistance to get from either of these to what you are looking for though (!)


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

idj20
13 August 2025 09:03:58
Looking like another failed attempt to see 30 C for the first time this year in my back yard today. Even though there is a lobe of 20 C uppers over my location right now, extensive cloud, mist and murk is keeping surface temperature pegged at 19 C at 10 am (it was already 26 C under full sunshine this time yesterday). In fact, right now it's that gloomy I'm fighting temptation to turn lights on indoors and yet yesterday was quite blinding with full sun.

It just proves that very warm uppers doesn't always equate to hot surface temperatures every time. Had today turn out to be a full sun day, then 35 C somewhere in Kent would probably be possible.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2025 09:23:44

I posted earlier in the thread about how this is possible from 2 sources I am aware of and showed the base figures for 1995

The MetO Daily Diary gives the daily extreme max for the UK  in textual form (not as a data table)

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/collection_86058de1-8d55-4bc5-8305-5698d0bd7e13/

 and the Met Office Hadley data repository can give 5km (among others) daily maxes for 1931-2024 in .nc format where you could do what you propose on both a national and location basis

https://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukmo-hadobs/data/insitu/MOHC/HadOBS/HadUK-Grid/v1.3.1.ceda/5km/tasmax/day/v20250415 

You would need plenty of spare time and some software assistance to get from either of these to what you are looking for though (!)

Originally Posted by: lanky 

Thanks. One for a rainy day (if there ever is one again).


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Crepuscular Ray
13 August 2025 10:02:15

Day 2 of Heatwave threshold reached in Edinburgh

28.2 C yesterday and already 25 C here at 1100

I'd love to have our first official heatwave. Come on Thursday you can do it!!


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Jiries
13 August 2025 10:03:43

Looking like another failed attempt to see 30 C for the first time this year in my back yard today. Even though there is a lobe of 20 C uppers over my location right now, extensive cloud, mist and murk is keeping surface temperature pegged at 19 C at 10 am (it was already 26 C under full sunshine this time yesterday). In fact, right now it's that gloomy I'm fighting temptation to turn lights on indoors and yet yesterday was quite blinding with full sun.

It just proves that very warm uppers doesn't always equate to hot surface temperatures every time. Had today turn out to be a full sun day, then 35 C somewhere in Kent would probably be possible.

Originally Posted by: idj20 

This phantom heatwave is the most worst one and this morning lot of complaints from

the southern posters this morning due to clouds around. Fraught with danger as the the cloud boundary just south of Birmingham hope not to reach here. The 00Z ensembles offer better clear HP with temps to 30C here with more sunshine so hope you get much needed higher temps at the weekend.  Was 19C this morning to now 28C with hazy skies. 

doctormog
13 August 2025 10:07:35

This phantom heatwave is the most worst one and this morning lot of complaints from

the southern posters this morning due to clouds around. Fraught with danger as the the cloud boundary just south of Birmingham hope not to reach here. The 00Z ensembles offer better clear HP with temps to 30C here with more sunshine so hope you get much needed higher temps at the weekend.  Was 19C this morning to now 28C with hazy skies. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Which means that the heatwave threshold temperature has already been reached for another day for your location.

After a misty then cloudy start the sun is out here now and it’s currently 23°C.


Jiries
13 August 2025 10:25:02

Which means that the heatwave threshold temperature has already been reached for another day for your location.

After a misty then cloudy start the sun is out here now and it’s currently 23°C.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I don’t take notice with threshold temps is the condition of the skies matter most as August 2022 was the last time with gin clear skies non stop with low 30s. 

doctormog
13 August 2025 10:28:12

I don’t take notice with threshold temps is the condition of the skies matter most as August 2022 was the last time with gin clear skies non stop with low 30s. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

That’s fine, it just means that the forecast heatwave in your area looks et to materialise (as long as tomorrow also reaches the threshold). It doesn’t need to be completely sunny to be a heatwave, just hot.


Ally Pally Snowman
13 August 2025 11:42:29

Nottingham,  Watnall 30.5c 

The 15th 30c day of the year. 

Looks like the East Midlands will be the hot spot today.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
13 August 2025 12:21:51

That’s fine, it just means that the forecast heatwave in your area looks et to materialise (as long as tomorrow also reaches the threshold). It doesn’t need to be completely sunny to be a heatwave, just hot.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Only today so far sunny than last 3 days.  Shocking reports from south posters said 19 to 20? Jesus that very low despite uppers very high. 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2025 13:12:42

Only today so far sunny than last 3 days.  Shocking reports from south posters said 19 to 20? Jesus that very low despite uppers very high. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I wouldn't describe it as shocking. It feels rather pleasant after yesterday. But yes the forecast over egged the sun and high temps for today.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 August 2025 13:14:47

Our local station now showing 31.7c.  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Rob K
13 August 2025 13:17:52

Our local station now showing 31.7c.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

A real difference from the south - just 23.8C at my local station but the cloud is breaking up.

15th day of 30C for the UK in 2025.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

idj20
13 August 2025 13:18:53

Only today so far sunny than last 3 days.  Shocking reports from south posters said 19 to 20? Jesus that very low despite uppers very high. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Indeed, still stuck at 19 C under gloomy overcast skies here at Folkestone and actually is feeling quite clammy and chilly for it. Quite remarkable given the 20 C uppers very close by to here. Hopefully I'll have better luck with seeing the sun tomorrow and should still be very warm despite less warm uppers so I'll be able to break out the garden chair once again - at least before the return of the north easterlies bring daytime temperatures down to near normal values for mid-August by the weekend, but likely to be still dry and bright.


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.

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