• 16.2°C (today's Met Office value)
• 17.2°C
• 17.7°C
• 18.0°C
• 18.4°C

The results are shown below. They suggest that if the August CET is 17.7°C or higher, summer 2025 will be the warmest in the series which goes back to 1659.

I used the CET analyser here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet.aspx 

Surely that will be for England and Wales if it's the CET? Not UK. 

We haven't had a heatwave up here this year (3 days over 25 C) It's been warmer than average but nothing too warm

Yes, I've referenced the CET in the full title of the thread. That said, I think there is a decent chance of this being the UK's hottest summer on record. 

There might be a chance of this for the CET area albeit I think an outside chance, but surely for the UK as a whole it would need a very hot end to August as it has been not that much above average for Scotland and NI?

I'm not confident about the prospects for the UK as a whole, so I'm happy to be contradicted. However, June was the UK's second warmest June on record, and July was the UK's fifth warmest July on record. Therefore, if some of the current model output is close to the mark, I would think there is a reasonable chance.

What i would say is that even the mediocre synoptical spells recently have been above average and then there have been several hot spells so it wouldn't surprise me to see it being the warmest ever. 

Certainly here one of the driest on record. Had an email from Wessex Water today. They are getting concerned about the "Prolonged Dry Weather". I think I could just about cope with water rationing in the summer but collecting water from a bowser or standpipe in the winter would not be my idea of fun. We need a wet autumn and winter. And a '76 style event next year following a dry winter is in the unthinkable category.

The data for Edinburgh Gogarbank shows that since January, July has been our only duller than average month and even that month wasn't all that much duller than average with other stations in Edinburgh such as Swanston still being sunnier than average even then.

As it turns out, this summer hasn't actually been as sunny as the preceding spring when you compare that with the long term averages, but it has still been a sunnier than average summer overall.

In terms of our rainfall, the only wetter than average month this year at Edinburgh Gogarbank was in June but even that month still had a below average number of official rain days with other stations even here in Edinburgh recording a drier than average month then even in terms of the actual rainfall amounts.

As has been said above, this is probably not likely to be the UK's hottest summer on record and that is certainly true here at the more local level but it has still been a warmer than average summer here and even in our relatively cool spells, the temperatures are never actually below the long term average for the time of year. In addition to that, Edinburgh also had its hottest June day on record in addition to its warmest April day on record. These should be lifetime events which should only be happening on a very rare basis, so we certainly shouldn't be getting two or more such events like that in the same year but ongoing climate change has now led us to this situation where this is probably going to be happening on an increasingly regular basis from now on.

Had the earlier part of the year been wetter and more unsettled, I would have been more than happy to welcome a dry, hot and sunny summer as a very welcome change to that. However, we had so much dry, warm and sunny weather during the spring that the continuation of that (which actually started back last winter) during this summer (albeit to a slightly lesser effect) has left me a bit fed up with seeing more or less the same weather pattern all the time. All of a sudden, it's become like Groundhog Day in that regard which is why I keep on asking the question of "could someone please change the record?" when it comes to our weather. As a result, the fact that we are likely to have yet more hot weather coming up at a time when I could really be doing with a change from all of that now, is no longer something which I'm actually looking forward to.

This doesn't mean that I necessarily want it to be wet and miserable because I would equally get fed up with that as well if it was like that all the time and although the coldies on here will usually pray for snow in the winter, I have even seen a few instances in the past of these same people becoming fed up with that as well whenever we have had too much snow in a relatively short of time. That is what I've now become like with this summer and all I would really like to be seeing is some more variability being brought back into our weather patterns so we can get back to seeing the more changeable weather patterns on a more regular basis because that is what our UK weather was traditionally renowned for in the past after all.

It's almost certain to end up warmer than 1976 down here, which is the one which people still cling to as a remarkable summer. By modern standards down here 1976 was just a warm summer. It didn't even reach 28 in August in Faversham, there were only 4 days in the whole summer which reached 30 and the absolute max was 32. 

This year, for comparison, the June max was 0.6 higher, the July max was 0.4 lower - and the August mean max was just 22.4, compared to a 91-20 average of 23.1 - it's odds on to be beaten.

Yet point this out to people on e.g. local newpaper comments and they simply don't believe it. They remember 1976 was a hot summer, and can't believe it's warmer these days! Yet it is, and days like today (an effortless 25) don't even mention comment. 

I'm not surprised because the main thing about this summer is that we had an excellent June.  Only 1976 delivered an excellent June. Other good summers like 1995 commenced with a poor June. 🙂🙂

I think 76 still was a remarkable summer given the lower base temp . The 75-76 drought really was a once in a lifetime event , however i think some areas like round here are getting near that level .Not the same everywhere i know. A hot dry spell in the south which is not often mentioned was July-August 1983 .

Well you can't argue with the statistics though which show that 1976 is likely to remain as the warmest Summer in the CET series.

Darren is referring to “down here” ie East Kent, which has had a number of warmer summers than 1976 in recent years. That said it’s quite something that East Kent is even in the running this year because since the end of June it’s been very wet and pretty cloudy. The vineyard got 201mm of rain in July. the lanes were mud baths. It’s dried out a little since. 

It does seem to have been a good season for the West-biased CET stations though. Pershore in particular has been right in the heart of the heat and drought, and looks to remain that way in the next week. 

The Met Office CET is now at 16.4C. It should rise significantly in the coming days.

Yes, I have vague early memories of that summer, going strawberry picking with my parents

Yes, the statistics show it's been warmer than 1976 *down here* and is likely to end up significantly so. While 76 was remarkable for the time (much as the shortlived cold in 2018 was *down here*), it doesn't hold a candle to what we see these days. As mentioned, the whole month of August 1976 was cooler than the 91-20 mean!

Further north, e.g. the CET zone, the warming has been less noticeable. As I've posted before, from 61-90 to 91-20 the mean has risen by 1.5C *down here*, but further north the rise has been a fair bit lower. 

Note the emphasis on *down here*! And yes, the stats are via the official MetO current and archive MIDAS data - as you say, you can't argue with stats! 😁

(And the point was that despite us seeing incredible warmth these days, nobody bats an eyelid - we just get "it's called summer" type comments on social media / local papers, and people genuinely don't believe it's warmer than it was in 76. I find it mildly amusing and slightly odd, and it's why I've said before people seem to think we're in the Med these days and seem to be disappointed if it's not 30 every day! Again, 30 was only reached on 4 days in 1976 *down here*, which wouldn't be remarked on these days.)

Well if people in Kent don't believe summers are warmer these days what hope do we have of convincing the rest of England where it's warmer but less pronounced.  

I don't really get the rose tinted view of the past . I thought growing up in the 90's the weather was more tedious that now, often my parents would have the heating on in July and August, yes they liked the house warm but  it would just be silly doing it this summer.  Remember often being cold and soggy in Summer.  Winters weren't that great either with a few exceptions. 

The official CET to 08/08 is 16.6C.  TWO to 09/08 is 16.9C.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 

There's still a realistic chance the 2025 CET could beat 1976.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet.aspx 

Looks almost certain now that we beat 76 with the recent upgrades in the heatwave. Only some very cool nights or some kind of Northerly in the last few days could stop this now.

Now running as the 3rd warmest CET in the series. I still don't think a new record is a given, but there's definitely a realistic chance of 1976 being toppled from its perch.

Those tables show how important June is. It’s what nobbles both 1995 and 2022, which would have been comfortably at the top if they’d just had moderately above average (or in 1995’s case) average Junes.