The Weather Outlook

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johncs2016
01 August 2025 06:20:03
As I write, we have now just entered in a brand new month which in this instance, is also the final month of the meteorological summer. As a result, it is now time for a brand new thread although the previous month's thread can still be used in the meantime to report any final totals for July.

Some parts of the UK have recently been getting some very welcome and much needed rainfall, but that is not the case everywhere in the UK and that is certainly not the case here in Edinburgh.

Looking back, we have been consistently seeing below average rainfall going all the way back to last summer. Edinburgh Gogarbank did get a wetter than average month in June but that wasn't replicated in July which has once again returned to being yet another below average rainfall month.

Even here in Edinburgh, not everywhere even had a wetter than average June. I normally leave Swanston in the south of Edinburgh for Jerry to deal with as that is in his neck of the woods but a quick glance of the data from there shows that Swanston had only 90.3% of its LTA (I'm not sure what average they go by there, so perhaps Jerry could enlighten me on that one) June rainfall in June and just 79.5% of its LTA July rainfall in July.

At the end of the day, I am sick and tired now of virtually always having to report below average rainfall on here and whilst others (such as Jerry) might seek yet more dry, warm and sunny weather (it is still summer after all), I would really like to be seeing a change from this consistent drier than average pattern which does no good at all for our farmers and growers, and I am aware that an ongoing lack of rainfall continues to be a real issue in many parts of the UK especially in those areas which are currently under a hosepipe ban as a result.

As a result, it is important that this thread continues to be available for reporting any issues regarding drought or an ongoing lack of rainfall and this is where any such reports such be made from now on. In addition to that, I will also continue to post the outcomes of any water scarcity reports on here which are released by SEPA throughout this month.

Looking ahead, the next few days are still looking very dry here on the latest model output. We might then see a little bit of rain from a weather front in the early hours of Sunday morning and then perhaps some more substantial rain from a major weather system on Monday but apart from that, there's not really all that much in the way of rainfall in the latest model output and it may even be that high pressure builds back in after Monday, thus reducing our chances of rain even further.

There is also some speculation going around that we might be heading into a La Nina ENSO state as we approach next winter. In past recent years, our wettest weather has tended to come under El Nino conditions with our droughts and water scarcity scenarios tending to come under La Nina conditions. If that pattern continues, this might not bode very well for those farmers and growers who are looking for a change to a much wetter pattern if La Nina does end up setting in but as far as this month is concerned, this is the very place to post those all important totals for your area regardless of how this month pans out in terms of rainfall, or a lack of it.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 August 2025 06:33:33

Goodwood Ladies' Day reported an inch of rain in an hour yesterday


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 August 2025 14:38:47

I was chatting with man in pub yesterday at lunchtime, in North Dorset, and he was saying that he expects to get just 4 bales of hay off a field that he owns, compared to the normal 20. His partner, who owns a field in Devon (near Dartmoor, whatever that means) is expecting a normal hay crop from her field.

That illustrates just how dry it has been in central S England. I think the only farmers in this area who have anything to thank the weather for are the cereal growers; the crop may be down but they aren't going to have to spend money on drying it to the required moisture content.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
03 August 2025 16:03:56

It feels like a '76 at least in dryness here. The winds today are encouraging an arsonist or more to set fires not far from me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedvn7p551po 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

bledur
03 August 2025 17:53:40

I was chatting with man in pub yesterday at lunchtime, in North Dorset, and he was saying that he expects to get just 4 bales of hay off a field that he owns, compared to the normal 20. His partner, who owns a field in Devon (near Dartmoor, whatever that means) is expecting a normal hay crop from her field.

That illustrates just how dry it has been in central S England. I think the only farmers in this area who have anything to thank the weather for are the cereal growers; the crop may be down but they aren't going to have to spend money on drying it to the required moisture content.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Bit late cutting hay this year , the grass died off weeks ago with very little regrowth. Re: Dartmoor , even there hay yields were well down . Difficult to make up for a dry Spring . Driest in this area since 76 , not as burnt off yet due to a little rain at times and longer nights  but a short Heatwave will soon crisp it up. Yes it has been an easy Harvest for the Arable farmers , lower yields but less costs apart from many Combines and balers catching fire . 

 Up the road from me .

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/25343956.large-fire-destroys-combine-harvester-field-martin/ 

bledur
03 August 2025 17:58:03

As I write, we have now just entered in a brand new month which in this instance, is also the final month of the meteorological summer. As a result, it is now time for a brand new thread although the previous month's thread can still be used in the meantime to report any final totals for July.

Some parts of the UK have recently been getting some very welcome and much needed rainfall, but that is not the case everywhere in the UK and that is certainly not the case here in Edinburgh.

Looking back, we have been consistently seeing below average rainfall going all the way back to last summer. Edinburgh Gogarbank did get a wetter than average month in June but that wasn't replicated in July which has once again returned to being yet another below average rainfall month.

Even here in Edinburgh, not everywhere even had a wetter than average June. I normally leave Swanston in the south of Edinburgh for Jerry to deal with as that is in his neck of the woods but a quick glance of the data from there shows that Swanston had only 90.3% of its LTA (I'm not sure what average they go by there, so perhaps Jerry could enlighten me on that one) June rainfall in June and just 79.5% of its LTA July rainfall in July.

At the end of the day, I am sick and tired now of virtually always having to report below average rainfall on here and whilst others (such as Jerry) might seek yet more dry, warm and sunny weather (it is still summer after all), I would really like to be seeing a change from this consistent drier than average pattern which does no good at all for our farmers and growers, and I am aware that an ongoing lack of rainfall continues to be a real issue in many parts of the UK especially in those areas which are currently under a hosepipe ban as a result.

As a result, it is important that this thread continues to be available for reporting any issues regarding drought or an ongoing lack of rainfall and this is where any such reports such be made from now on. In addition to that, I will also continue to post the outcomes of any water scarcity reports on here which are released by SEPA throughout this month.

Looking ahead, the next few days are still looking very dry here on the latest model output. We might then see a little bit of rain from a weather front in the early hours of Sunday morning and then perhaps some more substantial rain from a major weather system on Monday but apart from that, there's not really all that much in the way of rainfall in the latest model output and it may even be that high pressure builds back in after Monday, thus reducing our chances of rain even further.

There is also some speculation going around that we might be heading into a La Nina ENSO state as we approach next winter. In past recent years, our wettest weather has tended to come under El Nino conditions with our droughts and water scarcity scenarios tending to come under La Nina conditions. If that pattern continues, this might not bode very well for those farmers and growers who are looking for a change to a much wetter pattern if La Nina does end up setting in but as far as this month is concerned, this is the very place to post those all important totals for your area regardless of how this month pans out in terms of rainfall, or a lack of it.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Yes that is a worrying possibility . Neighbouring farmers round me keep saying we will get a deluge come the Autumn but i am not so confident.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2025 06:13:17

Bit late cutting hay this year , the grass died off weeks ago with very little regrowth. Re: Dartmoor , even there hay yields were well down . Difficult to make up for a dry Spring . Driest in this area since 76 , not as burnt off yet due to a little rain at times and longer nights  but a short Heatwave will soon crisp it up. Yes it has been an easy Harvest for the Arable farmers , lower yields but less costs apart from many Combines and balers catching fire . 

 Up the road from me .

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/25343956.large-fire-destroys-combine-harvester-field-martin/ 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

I googled this and found examples of combine fires from various parts of the country - Essex and York as well as Dorset/Wilts. It's suggested that this year is worse because the dust and chaff that goes with harvesting is drier than usual - definitely credible but it would be interesting to have an overall view rather than one-off reports.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2025 06:48:47

There is also some speculation going around that we might be heading into a La Nina ENSO state as we approach next winter. In past recent years, our wettest weather has tended to come under El Nino conditions with our droughts and water scarcity scenarios tending to come under La Nina conditions. If that pattern continues, this might not bode very well for those farmers and growers who are looking for a change to a much wetter pattern if La Nina does end up setting in but as far as this month is concerned, this is the very place to post those all important totals for your area regardless of how this month pans out in terms of rainfall, or a lack of it.

I hope that won't be the case.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2025 06:53:44

Bit late cutting hay this year , the grass died off weeks ago with very little regrowth. Re: Dartmoor , even there hay yields were well down . Difficult to make up for a dry Spring . Driest in this area since 76 , not as burnt off yet due to a little rain at times and longer nights  but a short Heatwave will soon crisp it up. Yes it has been an easy Harvest for the Arable farmers , lower yields but less costs apart from many Combines and balers catching fire . 

 Up the road from me .

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/25343956.large-fire-destroys-combine-harvester-field-martin/ 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

The regional variation this year is incredible. East Kent took a pasting in July. The vineyard weather station had a colossal 201.8mm in the month, from 4 separate huge falls. The downs are lush, damp, the paths are muddy, and vine disease pressure is high. 

In SE London my 2 closest PWS reported 55 and 60mm, which is at or a tad above average. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2025 06:57:41

I googled this and found examples of combine fires from various parts of the country - Essex and York as well as Dorset/Wilts. It's suggested that this year is worse because the dust and chaff that goes with harvesting is drier than usual - definitely credible but it would be interesting to have an overall view rather than one-off reports.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

It might be useful to have a national post-mortem later in the year perhaps to see if it is worse this year than previously. 

Apart from farm machinery fires, there seem to be numerous others kinds of fires this year. Certainly countryside fires, which in most cases will be arsonist inspired events. I assume it costs a lot in economic terms to deal with them. But there again, are there nationally collated figures which we could compare from previous years? You could then perhaps divide into countryside fires, machinery, recycling and so on.

And get a picture of are these fires increasing or decreasing in number?


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Roger Parsons
04 August 2025 07:03:16

There is also some speculation going around that we might be heading into a La Nina ENSO state as we approach next winter. In past recent years, our wettest weather has tended to come under El Nino conditions with our droughts and water scarcity scenarios tending to come under La Nina conditions. If that pattern continues, this might not bode very well for those farmers and growers who are looking for a change to a much wetter pattern if La Nina does end up setting in but as far as this month is concerned, this is the very place to post those all important totals for your area regardless of how this month pans out in terms of rainfall, or a lack of it.

I hope that won't be the case.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

I've been hoping we might get a wet autumn and a half decent year for fungi. I hope that will be the case - and that our rivers and reservoirs will get back to where they should be.


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Retron
04 August 2025 16:09:22

Bit late cutting hay this year , the grass died off weeks ago with very little regrowth. Re: Dartmoor , even there hay yields were well down . Difficult to make up for a dry Spring . Driest in this area since 76 , not as burnt off yet due to a little rain at times and longer nights  but a short Heatwave will soon crisp it up. Yes it has been an easy Harvest for the Arable farmers , lower yields but less costs apart from many Combines and balers catching fire . 

 Up the road from me .

https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/25343956.large-fire-destroys-combine-harvester-field-martin/ 

Originally Posted by: bledur 

My neighbour works on a farm (in the machinery department, he supplies parts across the UK) and he's been busier than normal this summer - so I asked him if he'd had any reports of combine or baler fires, as I was intrigued.

He said some balers in the area have gone up, but (with a sigh) he said the farmers don't take care of them as they do with their combines. He went on to say that farmers used to have several small combines, but down here at least they now prefer one bigger one, all-singing-all-dancing, to do the work instead. They look after them, but (with another sigh) he said the farmers just use their balers and shove them in a shed until the next season, not properly cleaning them etc. Perhaps that has something to do with it too!


Leysdown, north Kent
tierradelfuego
04 August 2025 17:52:49

One heavy shower today, the rest was just drizzle really, finished up with 2.2mm to start the month.

Not sure they'll be much added for a week or more...


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 August 2025 18:08:17

One heavy shower today, the rest was just drizzle really, finished up with 2.2mm to start the month.

Not sure they'll be much added for a week or more...

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

A generous trace is how I'd describe todays 'rain' here. Lovely sunny evening now.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

tierradelfuego
04 August 2025 18:35:22

A generous trace is how I'd describe todays 'rain' here. Lovely sunny evening now.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

You do seem to miss out more often than not, it's certainly a worrying year from a rainfall perspective as much as I've enjoyed the summer so far.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

johncs2016
04 August 2025 18:48:32

The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 8.2 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 1.0 mm (as at 6:40 pm BST (17:40 UTC) this evening on Monday 4 August 2025)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 10.0 mm (13.4% of 1991-2020 August average)

Number of rain days during this month: 2 (17.9% of 1991-2020 August average)

Number of dry days during this month: 1

Seasonal Data

Total for this summer so far: 158.2 mm (73.5% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of rain days during this summer: 24 (71.2% of 1991-2020 summer average)

Number of dry days during this summer: 32

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 345.4 mm (44.0% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 59 (42.9% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 123

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

speckledjim
05 August 2025 07:28:02

5.2mm


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Northern Sky
05 August 2025 08:12:06

6mm here so far.

johncs2016
07 August 2025 16:05:46
Here in Scotland, SEPA have just released its weekly water scarcity report. During the last week, there was some rain from Storm Floris but there has been very little in the way of rainfall apart from that with the heaviest rain continuing to fall only in those areas which don't really need it.

In the north of Scotland, Thurso has had its status downgraded from early warning status to normal status as has the Orkney Isles and the Outer Hebrides, but there has been no changes anywhere else in Scotland apart from that.

As a result, East Lothian continues to remain at moderate water scarcity status with Edinburgh remaining at early warning status and until we start seeing some significant and above average rainfall, that situation is not going to be changing any time soon for the better (if anything, we would be more likely to at least see some of those areas end up having their status upgraded rather than downgraded).

Back in July, some areas saw some very intense thundery downpours which caused the river levels to rise very quickly, but very little of that actually soaked properly into the ground and in parts of Fife, groundwater levels are at their lowest ever level on record for July.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
07 August 2025 16:13:27

One week in, zero.

(Technically there's been some rain, for example around 50 drops per square metre earlier today, but nowhere near enough to tip the gauge!)


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2025 16:28:48

It might be useful to have a national post-mortem later in the year perhaps to see if it is worse this year than previously. 

Apart from farm machinery fires, there seem to be numerous others kinds of fires this year. Certainly countryside fires, which in most cases will be arsonist inspired events. I assume it costs a lot in economic terms to deal with them. But there again, are there nationally collated figures which we could compare from previous years? You could then perhaps divide into countryside fires, machinery, recycling and so on.

And get a picture of are these fires increasing or decreasing in number?

Originally Posted by: NMA 

An interesting interview this morning on Farming Today (at 5.45am) with a farmer who grows sweet corn in Leicestershire. He said that there had been enough rain for the crop to produce good cobs, and that these were sweeter than usual due to the sunshine. What he had been worried about in the dry conditions was that the corn had not grown so tall as usual. It was close, but in the end it was tall enough for his harvesting machinery to work, but at one point he thought that it would be back to harvesting by hand.

Farming Today will be carrying harvest reports at 5.45 for the next  few weeks.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

speckledjim
07 August 2025 17:05:27

An interesting interview this morning on Farming Today (at 5.45am) with a farmer who grows sweet corn in Leicestershire. He said that there had been enough rain for the crop to produce good cobs, and that these were sweeter than usual due to the sunshine. What he had been worried about in the dry conditions was that the corn had not grown so tall as usual. It was close, but in the end it was tall enough for his harvesting machinery to work, but at one point he thought that it would be back to harvesting by hand.

Farming Today will be carrying harvest reports at 5.45 for the next  few weeks.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I suspect that this year has also been a very good year for fruit growers. My apple trees are weighing down the branches as there is so much fruit on them.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 August 2025 19:40:48

I suspect that this year has also been a very good year for fruit growers. My apple trees are weighing down the branches as there is so much fruit on them.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

The problem for fruit growers will be finding their labour force 2 or 3 weeks earlier than usual - all fruit seems to be ripening that early.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
08 August 2025 05:58:47

I sometimes wonder if this years current crop of countryside fires are all set by village idiots or encouraged by others with alternative motives. Ignoring the harvesting machinery ones that tend to be started more by machinery maintenance errors.

Dry as ever here.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Retron
08 August 2025 06:07:42

I sometimes wonder if this years current crop of countryside fires are all set by village idiots or encouraged by others with alternative motives. Ignoring the harvesting machinery ones that tend to be started more by machinery maintenance errors.

Dry as ever here.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

It'll be a mix of "we ain' got nuffink to do" and "it's a larf, inni" I'd imagine. The problems will doubtless resolve once the kids are back at school!

(There are some massive haystacks on the farm up the road from me, and I'd say there's a 25% chance of them going up in smoke one way or another in the next few weeks - they seem to have fires every 4 years or so on average. Last year they had one as the grass hadn't dried enough before being stacked, and the heat as it fermented set the lot off... not a good year for them!)

There's mention in the MetO forecast of isolated downpours as the heat kicks in early next week, but I'll not get my hopes up - we usually miss those sort of things here!


Leysdown, north Kent

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