GFS Op 00z: HP staying out to the SW for now with dry but cool weather for Britain - winds from NW or even N but the latter originating in the Atlantic and circulating round the high so not cold. From Mon 4th the HP ridges towards Scotland with E-lies for England and some hot air near the SW but it doesn't last; Fri 8th LP 995mb near Faeroes brings cooler weather from the NW while a weaker HP hangs on near the SW. Final chart Tue 12th shows LP arriving from Biscay.

ECM: Similar to GFS though the ridge is slower to establish by a day or two

GEM: More emphasis on LP over Scandinavia so the HP is unable to prevent stronger N-lies down the east coast

AIFS: London, maxima in low 20s for a week with occasional small amounts of rain, then warmer (ca 25C) and dry. Edinburgh, maxima in high teens for a week, with some slight rain, then a little warmer but a dip on Sat 9th with more significant rain

GEFS: temps near or a little below norm for a week, then a little above but with a bigger spread of ens members. Best chance of rain around Fri 1st in the S, small amounts of rain in the N at any time.

Calm, even boring, weather; whether it feels like summer depends unpredictably on how much cloud comes in off the Atlantic

GEFS look look interesting if you're hoping for very warm or hot weather to return.

It looks ghastly. When will this warmer than normal, water table destroying weather end?

Looks reasonable in the shorter term too. This continues to be a notably dry period in my locality, with only about 120mm of rain since 1st March.

It does. It currently looks excellent for here both shorter and longer term after a minor blip the last week or so. Good for families with the kids off school 

But the above sounds more like it 👍. I'd almost forgotten what a nice change a cloudy day is.

I doubt we'll get a wet spell (100mm+ over more than a week) before Autumn but at least I might be spared seeing our crops, plants, animals, soils, waterways suffer too much 👍

It not ghastly it summer season that contain warmer weather and it been a while since it been warm and settled that ended on 13th July.  0z ensembles lor here is welcoming drier weather and badly needed to dry out as it been so wet and found a group of mushrooms in my grass in July?  I hope August will deliver much needed drier summery of 2003 or 1995 set up.

Where is your here?

Ensembles for Nuneaton so looking decent drier and warmer but no heat spike set up but prolonged warmer set up, i rather take this.

It has been very dry since March , and is a bit worrying with no real rain in the forecast but this dry spell follows a very wet spell of weather following the hot dry summer  2022. Last year in this area June was the only drier than average month . 

 This year following a dry Spring for most of the U.K. the pressure pattern has changed with parts of central and western areas still dry but a fair bit of rain falling in the East. Bit of an odd set up but i have seen it before.

 Regarcing the warmth it is only to be expected with a 1.5 higher base line plus the exceptionally high ocean temps.

 If this was to be a regular pattern changes could be made to farming ,for one the digging of more little reservoirs around the farm .Indeed we had a guest from OZ who did just that , scraping out reservoirs with a Bulldozer for livestock farmers . We get plenty of rain at times but we squander it away.

Yes, I see 66mm at Hinkley this month. The east Midlands have done fairly well this month for rain. The West and SW Midland, Salisbury Plain/Dorset have seen more like 20mm or so - piercing drought will continue. Here (east Dartmoor)about 35mm scattered through the month. It is just as dry as at any point this year - evaporation is very high on sunny, breezy days which is why I welcome model predictions of more cloud.

Hurricanes or not, I doubt you'd get many takers for a cool August and September. Cool months, especially when compared to the 61-90 CET, are as rare as hens teeth. Back to back even more so. 

In my experience summer tends to see soils and rivers drying up. I don't think people need to worry too much about that with autumn round the corner and most LRFs pointing to wet one.

I do wonder how much influence the colder mid Atlantic water is having on this persistent mid Atlantic anticyclone....

Seems quite a contrast between ECM and GFS.    The odds favour high pressure to eventually take over properly by second week of August. So perhaps Summer 2025 will be resurrected.  September also tends to be a summer month these days as well. 

Its been very cloudy here since the heatwave ended.  People are more miserable when its cloudy and no sunbathing girls in the park. Why would you want that?  The Sun is so important to our wellbeing. The more the better before the cold and wet misery of winter comes. 

I simply said a cloudy day (day...) would be a nice change 👋

This looking a disappointingly cloudy high so far (at least here in Devon)

Met Office forecasts revising each day before to switch from sunny and temps 23-24c, to cloudy until well into the afternoon and temps 21-22c max.

The cooler NA waters may be more a symptom than a cause of the persistent Atlantic high pressure zone. Winds have been pretty steadily westerly over that cooler water area for a while now (the jet tending to be very flat, if still on the weaker side). My hope is that this cool patch spreads as we get into Autumn. Will help power up some proper Atlantic weather fronts and also allow cooler Canadian air to filter further eastwards, keeping those Atlantic waters stirred! 

Probably in the Autumn. It can't go on forever, and I would anticipate September or October looking to redress the balance somewhat.

If it doesn't, and this turns out to be a 1975 revisited and 2026 follows like 1976, then we would be in trouble water-wise!

Disagreed it been cloudy or seeing unwanted clouds since 13th July so waiting for a sunny day regardless the temperature and models hinting for a sunny day early August so now safely write off this month and 0/10 rating unfortunately. 06z ensembles show drier and above average a bit after the poor July will infected up to 3rd August. 

Looks like the strongest signal for high pressure we've seen for a good while. Very interesting.

No , when a dry summer follows a dry Spring then it is a problem . A fair portion of the country is in  serious  SMD. Obviously most years soils tend to dry in the Summer and rivers run at Summer levels but not dry up ,

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-national-monthly-reports-for-england-2025/water-situation-june-2025-summary 

Thanks for posting this. Certainly an interesting read. I agree that conditions are very dry overall right now. From my calculations 40% of river flows are at or above average. The rest are lower and some are exceptionally low. There still appears to be reasonable ground water and reservoir levels overall. 

So I still don't think we're on the verge yet of anything too disastrous. Concerning yes and if autumn also turns out dry then we do have a serious problem. 

OTOH for people like me who get SAD in the summer - and who like to sleep at night - more cloud is wonderful. Even so there's been plenty of "zap you" sun, and today, for example, I needed suncream to do some pruning at lunchtime. It only takes ~15 minutes to burn in the middle of the day if you're as white as I am!

Incidentally the raw MetO values for Faversham for the rest of the month are 24, 22, 24, 26. Why the focus on Faversham? Well, the 1976 records are available via MetO MIDAS, so it's easy to compare. Assuming that comes off we'll have had a July only 0.3C cooler than July 1976, and of course June was 0.6C above June 1976.

A remarkable summer so far, incredibly warm, and the jury's still out for August of course!