so your saying 30c to 35c should be normal summer weather?

seriously.

I don't think any of the output is showing 30 - 35c except perhaps the odd GFS run which as has been pointed out has been overdoing max temperatures all Summer by a few degrees at least.

Always interested- and have asked before- in how the black line (30 year mean) is derived. Understand the monthly, but even at the height of summer this seems to meander by up to 1.5C giving an almost 10°C LTA at one or two points around now, dipping between. Would be very interested in the datasets or algorithms that produce these details- are they published elsewhere or are they calculated by the TWO team?

I don't think I said that, but it's the weather I would.like .

Better 12s all round with HP making more of a fist of it , to build over the UK. Still quite erratic output though so I'm not convinced. 

On TWO the 1981–2010 850hPa reanalysis data sets used are provided by NCEP. Other websites or apps may use different ones.

GFS Op - still a W-ly pattern to start with (HP now, LP over the N Sea Sun 27th, then HP back again near S England) but unlike yesterday the HP dominates the whole of Britain from Fri 1st reaching 1030mb Cornwall Mon 4th with some hot air entrained on Tue 5th, retreating W-ward with a more promising plume from the S on Sat 9th.

ECM - places the HP to the NW on Fri 1st, and by Sun 3rd it only dominates Faeroes 1025mb with LP working up from Biscay 1010mb in the SW approaches

GEM - like GFS at first (though the LP Sun 27th is further off, near Norway), then switches to the ECM pattern but more so, the HP on Fri 1st  developing to the W and staying on the Atlantic, and by Sun 3rd has a broad trough of LP from Norway to Spain with an embedded centre 1005mb E Anglia

AIFS London temp maxima mostly mid 20s with possible 25C Sat 26th, Thu 31st and Thu 7th, best chance of rain Fri 1st but not much even then. Edinburgh much th same temp profile though 3-4C lower, again not much rain but most likely date Sun 3rd

GEFS in the S mean temps close to or a little below norm to Sat 9th (op and control warmer at the end of this period), minimal amount of rain; in the N temps similar though bigger spread of ens members in August, abd better chances of small amounts of rain from Aug 1st.

Steady as she goes for the rest of July, then some interesting differences in the models

Still looks like we're in a "holding pattern" with an Atlantic flow dominating during the next couple of weeks at least.

Good, 'holding pattern' sounds bearable. Perhaps I wont see the sadness of the countryside seared brown here again this year. Though the chances of meaningful rain seem to be falling.

GFS has made a few hints of some very warm weather returning, at least to southern parts, from about August 5. The ensembles are less interested at the moment and even the Ops run is flipping between very warm to cool.  

Aside from the usual wet places I think the 0z GFS looks pretty reasonable. I'd bite your hand off for an output like that most years. Fresh, mild and mostly dry for much of England. Theres nothing in that output that would stop me organising a BBQ, for example. 

Absolutely, fine average summer weather. Lets hope the oven weather doesn't return.

AH a little more timid in the 06Z, at least in the reliable timeframe, which is a downgrade for most of us compared to the 0Z. 

We need those tropical storms to start firing up if we want HP to nose further north. No sign of that yet. 

Yes a nice deep low to give the HP a kick might help us in the meantime just normal summer weather for the next 2 weeks .

Looks like some quite "chilly" air could be pulled southwards next week. The clock is now ticking for the blowtorch to return and I don't expect the 35.8C recorded on 1st July to be beaten this year. That said, I'd be very surprised if we don't see further very warm spells before the end of September

GFS Op 00z; High pressure is the main influence for the next two weeks, but not as close and as dominant as it has been in the summer to date - still generally dry and warm though. To start with, the HP sits off to the SW with a mainly W-ly flow across Britain. From Fri 1st, LP moves over the N Sea, briefly cooler N-lies for Great Britain while Ireland hangs onto the HP. From Mon 4th, the HP throws out a ridge across Scotland while the LP deepens 1010mb Belgium affecting England. From Fri 8th, the HP withdraws to the west of Ireland and there is a repeat of Fri 1st.

ECM ; Similar to GFS until Fri 1st but then the LP expands to cover the whole of England a day earlier 1010mb Sun 3rd, slowly filling

GEM; similar to GFS until Fri 1st when the N-lies are much weaker and the HP pushes back in quickly, back to a simple W-ly Mon 4th with HP centred to the SW

AIFS; London - maxima in low 20s to Mon 4th then a steep rise to 30C Fri 8th; a little rain around Wed 30th else dry. Edinburgh - maxima in mid-teens to Mon 4th then a similar rise but only to 23C; a little rain at any time

GEFS ;mean temps generally up to a couple of degrees first one side then the other side of norm, mainly dry in the S, a little rain in the N and that most likely around Fri 1st

West is best; for the rest it could go either way depending on how active the HP is.

Perfect summary. Unusual for it to be this way in mid summer. August tends to be more westerly dominated with eastern coastal areas getting the driest, sunniest weather. The GFS Ops run gives many eastern parts of England a soaking over the next 16 days. 

Not often that Ireland has better weather than London but it does seem the Azores high is unable to push across and the jet will cut down around it.  ECM op and GFS are poor. It will feel autumnal for the SE.  But time for things to change.  

Yes, I think the signal for more showery conditions in the east is appearing quite consistently at the moment. It could be good news for people going to Cornwall and Devon for a beano / holiday, less so for those heading to East Anglia and the south eastern corner.

Seems to be a stuck pattern with the AH trying ever so hard to ridge NE towards the UK but keeping the country under a NW/W airflow in the process for the most part anyway. Some decent Summer-like days can still be had out of that set up, especially over the southern half of the UK, but no heatwave just yet.

Looks like it could go either way middle to  end of next week. ECM showing the Azores high further away allowing more unsettled weather to take over generally . GFS more settled especially in the west. Couple more days , might know the answer.

pub run has no northerly, its warm and pretty dry throughout.  ECM day 10 finally warms up.  No sign of a heatwave but looks like pleasant summer weather

Still looks decent his morning. Steady as she goes.

GFS Op 00z; Until Mon 4th, HP sitting about 300miles SW of Cornwall, keeping the weather for Britain fine and dry, but with light winds from W or NW generally warm rather than hot. The focus of the HP then moves to NW Scotland with perhaps some much warmer air from the south and E-lies for England, before retreating to Mid Atlantic Sat 9th. LP over Norway then pushes in some cool-looking N-lies esp for the E coast.

ECM; similar to GFS though for a couple of days around Sat 2nd the HP weakens and winds go round to NW/N-ly before the HP recovers.

AIFS; London, maxima in low 20s to Sat 2nd and a little rain now and then; cooler for 3 or 4 days then dry with maxima about 25C. Edinburgh, maxima in high teens to Sun 3rd, a couple of days warmer before dropping back. Small amounts of rain at various times.

GEFS; temps near norm or a little below with good ens agreement to Sat 2nd after which a spread with some warmer outliers in the mix  for the S; In the S, spits of rain to Fri 1st then dry but in the N after this date.

Pleasantly useable summer weather for at least a week

I've been keenly watching this week since it first came into FI range. Apart from some variation on a broadly similar overall theme early on, the consistency of the models WRT the general synoptics has actually been remarkably consistent throughout.