Interesting that, that late Summer heat has become rarer, but much more common and extreme in the first half half of the summer now. Also backs up my perception that Summers have become much more front-loaded.

They'll definitely be another one. 🙂🙂🙂

Nobody's writing off any future hot weather this summer. I'm not even writing off any 35+ temperatures, which is what my comments were about, merely pointing out that it becomes much, much harder to get those sort of values as we go into August, and especially now we've had a fair bit of rain down here. I don't think we'll get any more 35s, but I can't rule it out entirely.

30+? Unfortunately from my POV I'd not be surprised if we saw one more batch, but it's all but impossible in the next week, and then that leaves the very tail-end of July and into August. The ECM meteograms show a vanishingly small chance for Reading, for example:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202507210000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=51.4562&lon=-0.97113&station_name=Reading 

Heat fans will want to see the jet stream moving back north and while that will almost certainly happen sooner or later, the models are flip-flopping run to run in terms of its positioning in FI. In other words, if you're a heat fan... come back next week and see if things have changed. Again, much like what we have on here in mid-January, the winter equivalent - the only difference really being that cold in winter is increasingly rare, unlike warmth in summer!

Opposite here - this year may be the exception. The last decade September and October have often been great with miserable May and June.

Terrible GFS 12z and AIFS 12z,  ECM thankfully is much better. Models seemingly have no idea how far this HP will move in.  

I seem to remember someone saying in the previous thread a few weeks ago that the models have often struggled with the behaviour of the jet this summer. There have been suggestions at times in recent weeks of high pressure setting up shop right over the UK for prolonged spells, but these have never materialised. On the two occasions that HP has made it right across the UK in the past month giving brief nationwide heatwaves, just over a week ago and a month ago, it has very quickly been chased away by the atlantic. 

Hopefully, if HP does manage to get in right over the UK again in the coming few weeks, it hangs around for a bit longer than on the last two occasions.

Yes, it does feel for heat fans what cold fans have gotten used to at the same point 22 Jan.  Hoping for another cold spell which never materialises.  I think we have reached the peak of any heat now and the rest of the summer will peter out with occasional warmer days if the Azores can influence more, but northerly outbreaks seem inevitable as shown on most ensemble members at the moment

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of 30C being reached Friday - a slim chance maybe but not out of the question.

GFS Op 00z - Current LP moves off to the north and a westerly regime becomes established, Britain sandwiched between typically 1020mb France and 995mb Faeroes. The HP for Sun 27th shown yesterday has been flattened and MetO rainfall indicates heavy rain across N England that day. The northern LP dips further south Sat 2nd 1000mb N Sea with N-lies replacing W-lies for a few days before the latter resume. Watch Portugal for some very hot weather Wed 6th, positioned ready for a plume attack - but that's a long way off.

ECM - W-lies as per GFS at first, but shows a small disturbance moving across N England on Sun 27th, to match Meto above, and then a deeper LP 990mb Wed 30th  Hebrides moving rapidly to the NE but dragging cool N-lies as it does so.

GEM - follows GFS to the 28th, then brings in the cool and unsettled weather as per ECM

AIFS - London becoming warmer (max about 23C) and mostly dry to Fri 1st then cool (19C) with a little rain. Edinburgh max  temps up and down (upper teens) to  Tue 29th and mainly dry, then cooler (ca 16C) with some rain to Sun 3rd before improving.

GEFS - In the S, temps near norm, both mean and ensemble, to Fri 1st, when a spread of ens members develops and the majority of runs a little warmer (caution - does not match Op chart above). A little rain at first, then mainly dry. In the N, temps slightly below norm, and after Fri 1st staying that way with op and control much cooler. Small amounts of rain from about Sun 27th onward.

In general, a summer westerly, i.e. nothing dramatic and with the better weather in the south, but details liable to change at short notice as disturbances in the westerly stream arrive from the Atlantic

Mixed to poor output again this morning very disappointing for summer fans. Despite the rise in AAM it's not having the effect of building HP over NW Europe. 

Poor if you are looking for wall to wall sunshine and 32c, but most days dry with temps between 22 and 25 is fine by me

Going round in par is how I would describe the outlook based on recent model output.

Depending on where you are, for the SE I would say 2 under 🙂

Unbelievably brilliant for most of us then 👍 😊

Probably based on the GEFS, but the ECM ENS doesn't look quite as favourable.

Agreed, a very front-loaded Summer, and overall I don't think this Summer will end up in the same league as 76, 2018 and even 2022, despite the expectations the earlier heatwaves created, however still time for things to change but it would be a surprise now.

Definitely a step back from the optimism of the last couple of days on today's output, more of a west-focused HP meaning northerly winds spoiling the party. However it doesn't look exactly unsettled, especially for the south. Plenty of usable summer weather on the cards although chilly in the evenings.

Trump's version of par, which in reality is 12 over!

However, the pub run does temper the northerly and ends with a heatwave, so all may not be lost for sweat fans

GFS Op 00z - a generally westerly pattern, with areas of HP and LP moving across Britain, HP nearer the south and LP the north, and overall the pattern more amplified than shown yesterday. HP dominant Thu 24th, Tue 29th, Mon 4th; LP Thu 31st and  Fri 8th. The last has a link to LP over Biscay and could turn thundery.

ECM - similar to GFS in principle but add some LP Mon 28th and make more of the LP Thu 31st which gets to N Sea off East Anglia 1000mb with N-lies for most

GEM - similar tendency but HP more persistent over Britain and LPs having less effect

AIFS - London maxima up and down in the range 20-25C and only spits of rain to Sun 3rd, then cooler with more significant rain for a few days. Edinburgh also a mainly dry period to Sun 3rd but maxima 17-21C, then more rain but only a little cooler.

GEFS - Widely temps near or a little below norm with occasional but not much rain, perhaps a little warmer at end of 1st week in August. Not much spread in ens members. In the N 2 or 3 runs only have heavy rain around around 3rd August

Looks like quite a 'boring' average outlook now for what should be on average the hottest time of the year.

Surprised no comments from Ally and other sweat lovers.  GFS looks very warm in the south with the Azores high pumping in some warm and humid air.  These days we can easily hit 30 from an atlantic westerly.  ECM cooler and more pleasant with normal summer temps.  I would prefer that outcome though its easily possible the Azores will push in more strongly as per GFS

It still looks fairly "average" to me. The chance of another heatwave remains but it isn't the favoured outcome at the moment.

Problem with LP to the north refusing to sod off and preventing natoinwide HP that allow proper hot weather all over than just the south only, it won't get hotter in the south if there a north and south split, if you want to see extreme temps of 35-40C we need it nationwide to allow the flow of heat unlimted.  This current over 10 days of unsettled weather took away a huge chunk of summer peak already.

Looks like the curse of the school holidays is kicking in proper. Showery, mixed brief sunny intervals, lots of cloud and rather windy at times for the foreseeable, including the south. The overhyped triple heatwave media narrative has come to an abrupt ending. 

As Brian said, the 2 week outlook is still very mixed,  some decent days likely but also some rain, might squeeze a 28c but that's about it.

Another heatwave looks unlikely in the coming fortnight but models are struggling a bit and things can change quickly for better or worse.

GFS has been over doing max temps for a lot of this Summer sadly.