2, for me, but 1 isn’t exactly offensive 

You can't please everyone! I prefer no.2.

In no. 1 the colour for +7 is (for me) the same as -2.

ECM should be quite hot for the south from next sunday onwards. all depends on the extent of the ridging from the azores high

Its a slow burner though, and as Darren posted earlier we are losing time for another proper heatwave, but I think 90 is possible again perhaps second week of august if the heat dome rebuilds over mainland europe again. 

The GFS control run is what the heat lovers should be looking for in the coming output. a long way off but logical if heights maintain over europe

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2025072012/gens-0-0-384.png 

Agree. The scale of 1 doesn't make sense to me. It goes lighter and then back darker to almost the same colours. 

Pub run is a scorcher. 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2025072018/gfs-1-372.png?18 

Number 1 more detailed but 2 is easier for the eye to digest. 

GFS Op 00z - current LP out of the way to the north by Thu 24th, followed by a spell of generally westerly weather, alternating between HP and fine weather pushing up from the SW (Sun 27th, Sun 3rd) and cooler and unsettled pushing down from the NW.(Wed 30th , Wed 6th). GEM is closer to this than to ECM.

ECM - similar to GFS at first but the LP Wed 30th comes further south, 1000mb N Sea with direct N-lies for Britain.

AIFS - London maxima ca 22C to Fri 25th with a little rain, warmer at about 25C to Wed 30th, then much cooler for the weekend 2nd/3rd with rain before recovering (a test for this model vs GFS). Edinburgh maxima dropping slowly and irregularly from 20C now to 15C by Fri 1st, then recovering; dry around Fri 25th but small amounts of rain at other times.

GEFS - In the S, mean temps near norm throughout but a spread of ens members develops from Wed 30th with op and esp control becoming very warm Mon 4th; rain in the next couple of days, but very little chance after that. In the N, temps similar (mean if anything a little below norm) and a low chance of small amounts of rain at any time 

The not very exciting output continues.  Azores HP trying to nose in ,LPs brush through Scotland.  Temps about average,  all a bit meh for high summer.

Welcome to the traditional summer pattern of the 50s and 60s😒

I want my heat back please.

There's nothing wrong with predictions of normal weather, it's good for nearly everything, though the mean temperature remains above normal and rainfall well below normal here.

A period, according to my grandparents and parents, when real and frequent thunderstorms were more the norm. 

Average pattern with well above average temps (esp nightime) and humidity is all I can see on the models this morning. 

I can't wait for the Autumn equinox. Only after then will it darken and cool down a bit. 

The AH just can't ridge far enough E/NE to bring through some warmer continental air.

Where I'll be looks like temps of around between 21c per ECM/AIFS and 23c (GFS)

I'd have preferred 5c'ish higher, but I'm relieved it looks dry and sunny in the main for the week. 

Central/SE England look to reach mid-20's more easily.

Yes it's not a terrible outlook by any means. But a little boring compared to the  heat of the first half of Summer. If the Azores HP can build in properly it would get hot again. 

That's been something both GFS and AIFS have shown in some runs (the AH - or an 'offshoot high' - settling over the UK, rather than it just being the eastern edge of the AH ridge). So it's possible. But recent runs seem to be solidifying around the ridge-only option.

Edit - ICON has the AH ridging further NE; not nirvana (in terms of hot), but a little better. 

It's perfectly possible to reach low to mid 30s well into September, so I don't think we're running out of time in July!

Several recent GFS runs (including the 18Z and 00Z) have shown temperatures back into the 30s by the first week of August.

Would be nice to get a hot AIFS haven't had one of those in a while. 

The 6z AIFS actually remarkably similar to the GFS 6z.  The next chase for heat fans early August maybe?????

Which is what it did just two years back. 7 consecutive 30+ days in the SE, and that after a wetter spell through August. 

The GFS ENS 850mb mean temperature is edging up and on the 0z rose above 10°C again, with plenty of members making 15. 

The 6z Op is doggedly continuing to show a heatwave, but the mean is of more interest at the moment.

We've had August heatwaves in at least some parts in the Augusts of 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022  and a very brief one in September 2021.

With warmer, drier days looking likely to end the month it means we'll be back to very dry ground again. Easy for that August sun to heat things up rapidly I reckon.

Mid 30s, as in 34, 35, 36, are vanishingly rare after the middle of August. Yes, it's possible, but the conversation reminds me of the way how, in mid-January, people say that you can still get ice days into March. Well, yes, you can - but it becomes harder each day, and exponentially harder once you get past mid-Feb.

As I've said, to get the really high stuff - 35+ - you really need dry conditions, relatively low humidity air and so forth. It can be done without, but again it becomes much harder to do without them.

True, but the middle of August is still nearly four weeks away. Realistically there are still at least six weeks where it is easy to reach 30 degrees, which is plenty hot enough to be "heatwave" territory anywhere in the UK. We've come within a whisker of 30C even on the first of October before now.

Given that GFS is repeatedly showing a decent chance of 30C temperatures returning within the next two weeks, I think writing off any future hot weather this summer is a bit premature. It's pretty unlikely we will see anything higher than the 35.8C we already had, but seeing as (if my quick skim through the records is correct) that's one of the 20 hottest days in UK recorded history, that's not too surprising!

I count 33-36 as mid 30s with an equal number of low 30s (30,31,32) and high 30s (37,38,39) otherwise there will be more low 30s than high.

With that in mind I know everyone's familiar with date records: https://www.torro.org.uk/extremes/date-records/max-temp

Only 3 days of the 31 (20th 23rd 30th) have records below 33. 

That said, I agree that widespread 30+ temperatures are are normally harder to achieve in August. But antecedent conditions (soil moisture, soil temperature, SSTs, warming atmosphere) may facilitate somewhat this year. 

Interesting is the fact that the month's records are more heavily weighted in the second half towards older records. Apart from 9th in 1911 the first 12 days are all held by 1990 or later. Then it changes markedly.

Oops. I think this post is destined for Forum Arms. Apologies.

Which is interesting, as the occurence of mT airmasses decreases as the winter wears on and are at their rarest around that very late Feb to early March period, hence why there is often that 'dog days' feel during that early spring period.