The Weather Outlook

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fairweather
15 July 2025 22:08:19

Just noticed we had 1.2mm just after it got dark. Shame I didn't notice I might have gone out and done some lamp post watching! Brings me up to 9.3mm for the month.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
15 July 2025 22:19:02

Only had 5 days with over 10.1mm of rain this year and just 2 with over 20mm. One in January and one in April. 204mm YTD.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Tim A
16 July 2025 06:57:45

Yesterday there was 12mm of rain making it the wettest day since March 22nd and only the third day over 10mm since the snow event at the start of January. 

21mm for the month now. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

speckledjim
16 July 2025 10:06:26

15mm to date


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2025 18:20:40

Clouds come and go but we've had the square root of diddly squat rain here. Gardens and countryside daily looking ever more parched. Quite depressing to see.


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

tierradelfuego
16 July 2025 19:15:31

Clouds come and go but we've had the square root of diddly squat rain here. Gardens and countryside daily looking ever more parched. Quite depressing to see.

Originally Posted by: RobN 

Agreed, still stuck on 3.8mm for the month, the odd shower hasn't registered. Our back lawn is actually looking ok for about 80% of the coverage as it is shaded but I'm certainly not going to give it a cut, it's been at least 4 weeks now. Our neighbours have a robo mower still going on a lawn that is a shade of grey, but then they water in the middle of day when it's 30c so a slight depreciation in common sense.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2025 12:03:51

There was some drizzly rain earlier that dampened road surfaces. 

Is this the start of the end of the historic dry spell, or a temporary blip in a remarkable summer? I'm just outside the thunder warning area. 

It's very humid, and an almost tropical feeling today.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
17 July 2025 16:25:13

This week’s water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and as with other recent weeks, the results have been mixed but unlike in those other weeks, no region has actually returned to normal status which wasn’t previously at that status.

Nevertheless, the last few days in particular have been very wet in many areas such as here in Edinburgh which has finally at long last, had its status downgraded from alert status to early warning status as a result.

In the north of Scotland though, one area has had its status upgraded from early warning status to alert status with another area being upgraded from normal status to early warning status.

For the rest of Scotland, the status remains unchanged from last week with East Lothian remaining at moderate water scarcity status along with NE Fife and many parts of NE but within those areas, SEPA have stated that a number of those areas could only be a week away from being upgraded to significant water scarcity status which is the highest possible level for that.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
19 July 2025 00:32:21

First batch of rain has missed me by 5 miles to my East which means Darren will have copped it!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2025 07:45:20

The BBC are still going for thundery rain early tomorrow IMBY. And then on Monday at various times.

They even still seem bullish on heavy rain spreading from the south for this morning. I don't agree.

Looking at the radar and up at the sky, it seems obvious that not a lot is happening of interest.

The models missed something, though they got the wind right earlier from the NW F2 coast and calm inland.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

bledur
19 July 2025 08:10:48

The BBC are still going for thundery rain early tomorrow IMBY. And then on Monday at various times.

They even still seem bullish on heavy rain spreading from the south for this morning. I don't agree.

Looking at the radar and up at the sky, it seems obvious that not a lot is happening of interest.

The models missed something, though they got the wind right earlier from the NW F2 coast and calm inland.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Maybe some rain tonight and showers Monday and Tuesday as a low moves in from the S.W. which is always better for here in producing "reliable" rain .

 The Amber weather warning , looking at the radar and rain rates was OTT although it might develop further North but that does not excuse the S.E. Forecast where Chris Fawkes had " Serious Concerns " about Sussex 🙄.

 No doubt they will justify themselves by picking out one particular place that had a cloudburst and some Thunder .

 Will they explain where they went wrong? 🤣

fairweather
19 July 2025 08:44:33

Went to bed after watching UKMO forecast of thunder, lightning, hail, torrential rain and flash floods. "Don't expect to get much sleep". What did I get - a couple of bursts of heavier rain and a bit of steady rain. None of the above. 6mm - not a puddle to be seen anywhere this morning. I predicted it wasn't going to happen - why haven't they? It's like they've started getting their forecasts from the Mirror or the Express with click bait for their You Tube Channel.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
moomin75
19 July 2025 08:47:54

Went to bed after watching UKMO forecast of thunder, lightning, hail, torrential rain and flash floods. "Don't expect to get much sleep". What did I get - a couple of bursts of heavier rain and a bit of steady rain. None of the above. 6mm - not a puddle to be seen anywhere this morning. I predicted it wasn't going to happen - why haven't they? It's like they've started getting their forecasts from the Mirror or the Express with click bait for their You Tube Channel.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Weather forecasts in this day and age are absolutely dreadful 90% of the time. We've barely had a splash here, and although I wasn't in the amber area, the forecast from the ever useless BBC South Today was around 20-40mm. 

The reality is 2mm. Not worth wasting time watching them, and with one exception, the South Today forecasters are basically just script readers and have no clue on the science behind the forecasts.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2025 08:52:44

Maybe some rain tonight and showers Monday and Tuesday as a low moves in from the S.W. which is always better for here in producing "reliable" rain.

 The Amber weather warning , looking at the radar and rain rates was OTT although it might develop further North but that does not excuse the S.E. Forecast where Chris Fawkes had " Serious Concerns " about Sussex 🙄.

 No doubt they will justify themselves by picking out one particular place that had a cloudburst and some Thunder .

 Will they explain where they went wrong? 🤣

Originally Posted by: bledur 

The million-dollar question.

I don't think they know themselves. The only thing I suppose was that it was predictable that it was going to go this way. Past form and all that, especially this year. So many times these thundery developments do this when seemingly all the atmospheric ingredients are there waiting to go pop.  They then fizzle out over the Channel. But why?


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

speckledjim
19 July 2025 10:07:31

18mm


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

Retron
19 July 2025 10:09:33

35mm, with 19.4mm from the overnight/morning rain. You'd be forgiven for missing it, though, the lawn (for example) is still rock-solid!

It'll be an odd one in the history books down here - not far off the mean (so far), but with all the signs of an ongoing drought.


Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
19 July 2025 10:15:08

77mm here so far, with much of that falling in the last few days. Very dry month up till then. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

redmoons
19 July 2025 10:43:33

18mm of rain so far (11.30am)

Not anywhere near amber warning teritory.


NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2025 16:23:12

I'm hoping that tonight and tomorrow will produce the first rain in weeks for this part of Dorset. It's incredibly dry, with trees starting to lose leaves around here.

I wonder what the meeting was like in Exeter today when they had the Amber Warning post-mortem.

They got the overall picture correct, as they often do nowadays, but the Sussex 'Serious Concerns' is going to take a bit of explaining about why it never came to pass. It probably terrified some people who thought that biblical floods were around the corner.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

fairweather
19 July 2025 16:45:19

35mm, with 19.4mm from the overnight/morning rain. You'd be forgiven for missing it, though, the lawn (for example) is still rock-solid!

It'll be an odd one in the history books down here - not far off the mean (so far), but with all the signs of an ongoing drought.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Well at least it seems you hit the jackpot looking at other S.E figures. 😀


S.Essex, 42m ASL
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2025 17:15:22

24.8mm today, 77.6mm mtd.


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex, 121m asl.
Retron
19 July 2025 17:16:46

Well at least it seems you hit the jackpot looking at other S.E figures. 😀

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I can't really complain, but it's not the jackpot. That would be the Hastings area, which saw between 60 and 76mm of rain from this event - going by the 24 hour accumulated rainfall total chart from NW, anyway!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/total.jpg 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
bledur
19 July 2025 17:45:47

I'm hoping that tonight and tomorrow will produce the first rain in weeks for this part of Dorset. It's incredibly dry, with trees starting to lose leaves around here.

I wonder what the meeting was like in Exeter today when they had the Amber Warning post-mortem.

They got the overall picture correct, as they often do nowadays, but the Sussex 'Serious Concerns' is going to take a bit of explaining about why it never came to pass. It probably terrified some people who thought that biblical floods were around the corner.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Yes , Dorset and other central southern areas have been extremely dry  with the rain either in the west or the east like today. If like today i saw Thunder and rain coming off the Cherbourg Peninsuler you could nearly guarantee it would head up in the Weymouth to Southampton area . Might not have got a storm but they would be about . Something has shifted in the pattern ATM.

 You would think so but they will not lose any sleep over it . That is the modern way unfortunately.

Tim A
19 July 2025 18:22:09

17.8mm rain today. Heavy rain in pulses, no thunder. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Northern Sky
19 July 2025 20:32:40

15mm here today taking the monthly total to 36mm. Hopefully some more tomorrow. 

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