My feeling that next week would determine the summer seems to be playing out. Mid-late July is such a critical time, not just because of school holidays but also because patterns get established for the dog days round about now. St Swithins day and all that. 

This will be a shock to the system for some people I expect.

GFS 12z has us comfortably into the low 30s next Friday and Saturday. 

It does, but all the models are considerably more unsettled generally now, with a lot of rain about.

It will be useful rain, but hopefully it's not setting up a wet and cooler second half to summer, which I just get a feeling for that it is.

Some would argue with the word in bold!

Interesting how high the temperatures stay even the following week - the charts at face value look pretty unsettled and rubbish but the temperature charts show upper 20s.

before turning very wet

ICON looks horrendous.  That GB news report of flash floods could be right

GEM is better longer term with heights building from the south again.

That's a few heavy showers over a limited area for a limited time. Hit and miss is the MetO's favourite phrase.

That said it's certainly the most unsettled day of the week for us according to the MetO day by day forecasts. Someone showed a MetO chart for next Thursday which looked rubbish, but currently the maximum probability of rain so far shown is 30%. 

MInd you they completely missed the short but quite heavy rain that we had today, so minimal trust in those forecasts.

Do you have a verification percentage for the 'your feeling' model?

These are the rain totals - mostly from the Tuesday "event".

Not for the SE... GFS has less than 20mm of rain in the next 10 days across the SE, less than 10mm in Kent.

In fact right out to T384 the GFS has no more than 20mm across the SE corner, with half that in the driest spots around the Thames Estuary. No let-up in sight on that model at least.

ICON has slightly more, but still only 10-20mm in the SE as far as it goes (180 hours). Quite wet in Wales, NW England and SW Scotland though.

No relief down here if that were to pass - another week of lugging watering cans around, or maybe the hosepipe'll get an airing! (The neighbours all seem to think there's a ban, but there isn't).

While there may be a splash or two of rain down here on Tuesday, I'd wager the wind will be more noteworthy - the MetO raw has a few hours of 40+ gusts, which is most unusual during the day in July. It still has a high of 23 too, reflecting just how much heat remains to our south.

Successive GFS runs have backed away from rain on Tuesday too, although it remains cooler more generally compared to the MetO raw. 

The way this summer has gone I'd not be surprised for it to end up a completely dry day down here, the "chasing rainbows" phenomenon when it comes to rain.

I see the south coast of Cornwall has the only zero …great we are more yellow than “green and pleasant land “

Yes, a bit depressing as we do need the rain down here badly. The low may track further South but the models not showing this atm.

Cheers for that. We're in the box between 22/21 and 16/9mm, so it's anyone's guess! Reflective of the showery nature of much of the precipitation I suspect?

More runs needed. 

I've just moved a number of posts to a new Model Output breakout thread which is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/m1649944-Model-output-breakout-thread 

The open web is currently undergoing massive changes due to the way AI is developing. Therefore, it's more important than ever to stay on topic in this thread and avoid letting it turn into a low quality general chat about nothing in particular. I'm more than happy to discuss this with anyone who wants to know more, but this isn't the thread for that.

Evaporating rain and a close to 30c down here,nothings changed 

Is it? I'm not seeing it for here where it is most needed and other areas in the East. We need at least 50mm to make any difference really.

ECM ENS now appears more supportive of further very warm or hot spells than GEFS. 

UK Met looks like more unsettled conditions could be with us for a while. 

The (soon to be retired) op run looks quite well supported by its ensemble.

The next 10 days look changeable, rainfall not particularly significant for those who need it most. Temps above average 

GFS Op 00z; LP from the Atlantic moving across Britain tomorrow, presenting as somewhat deeper than previously forecast but not having much effect on the far S. This ushers in a week with weak LPs near N Scotland (typically 1000mb) and not-too-high pressure over N France (typically 1015mb) with a westerly regime in place. On Sun 27th HP revives from the SW as so often this summer 1030mb, slowly drifting N-wards to Scotland by Wed 30th.

FAX shows various fronts crossing Britain in this W-ly flow, but decaying as they do so.

ECM - broadly similar to GFS but the HP sometimes ridging further N from France (Fri 18th) alternating with LP dipping further S from Scotland (Sun 20th).

AIFS - cooler and damp (scarcely wet) in London Wed 16th, then warmer for a while (max 26C), then cooler and wet Sun 20th, then dry with maxima 20-25C. Edinburgh precedes London i.e. Tue 15th not Wed 16th and Sat 19th not Sun 20th; then warm for a while but cooling with rain Sun 27th (contrast GFS)

GEFS - widely after a brief dip mean temps close to or a little above norm until Wed 30th with quite good ens agreement throughout, small amounts of rain cropping up randomly in different runs, more likely in the far west.