Ok Brian. 😁

I've just removed some posts. OT please.

GFS 18z op similar to ECM, hot and thundery.  Lets see what the morning brings, the models are still trying to work out what the atlantic low does

GFS Op 00z; trough moving in from the west centred 1005mb N Ireland Tue 15th but LP extended across Britain generally. Pressure then remains low but slack for the following week, typically 1005-1010mb (with potential for thunderstorms widely - or is that wishful thinking?). Lower pressure then focuses on N Scotland; 1005mb Wed 23rd, 1000mb Sat 26th, and another centre approaching Tue 29th, all indicating the common split, NW unsettled and SE fine. Still very warm in the SE at times.

ECM; similar to GFS but the 'slack' LP is more emphasised in the south, until Tue 22nd when it pulls back to the NW and HP builds from the south.

AIFS; London, cool Tue 15th with a little rain - warmer (maxima ca 25C) to Mon 21st when again a dip in temp with rain - maxima recover to low 20s with more rain around the 26th. Edinburgh, the same timing of dips in temp with rain, but maxima between dips close to 20C

GEM persists with LP off N Ireland/NW Scotland after Sat 19th, with warm SW-lies for all, and definitely hot for the SE from Tue 22nd

GEFS; In the S, after a dip on Tue 15th, mean temp and most ens members slightly above norm for a week, then back to norm. More rain than shown yesterday, still not a lot, but a few runs suggest the occasional downpour. In the N, temp profile similar, bur rain likely at any time after Tue 15th in moderate amounts, timing is different in different ens members.

Very messy picture this morning,  some rain around next week but how much the SE gets is not clear. Thursday to Saturday next week still look hot.

These are definitely now taking on a more mixed profile. That said, with areas of low pressure drifting around we could still see a heat pump scenario. 

Models indicating a reasonably consistent and extended move from extreme warm weather to more normal warm weather.

looks like the weather is going to gradually slip into a more average spell, more rain showing up now from my occasional look at Models

The model consensus is now essentially what AIFS was showing a few days ago.

Yes. there seems a lot of doubt this. The You Tube Met Office presenter last night (they seem to give everyone a go or they are overstaffed!) said significant welcome rain through Tuesday and her rain graphic showed it passing through the S.E. Fast forward to the 5 day Met Office graphic panel forecast and not a single rain symbol for London the whole of next week! Talk about covering all bases!

Yes the models are really struggling for next week but think we can expect at least some rain in the arid SE.

No rain for the s.e. Expect 30c again Thursday onwards. 

Both the ECM and GFS Ops show a lot of rain accumulates by the end of their runs, even for a lot of south east

GFS has some heavy rain across the south on Tuesday and some more on Thursday although how much will reach the far SE corner is debatable.

The strange slack pressure patterns continue. Could be some very heavy and slow moving showers around I think. Given I will be in the Welsh mountains over the weekend I will be watching out for thunderstorm warnings.

I am off to the City office next week so I hope any rain forecasts are wrong

GFS 06Z rain totals for the next 5 days.

So somewhere between 2 and 9 mm which will do nothing. Need 50mm at least in two days to make any difference.

Would be welcome but some parts of the country have been drier than parts of the SE . Only last weekend we had 11 mm sat night and a few localities had heavy thunderstorms Sunday afternoon in Kent and Sussex 

The MetO rainfall chart 

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map# 

looks very wet on Wednesday for southern coastal counties, and then a reload for slightly further north on Thursday, along a line just north of the M4 (and for FW's benefit, the A12)

Those look encouraging for me but not for anyone camping in the South. And many of those.

But seen things like that before this summer so will this one work? I hope so.

Is Summer over? Moomin has done us in! the latest GEFS are not very encouraging.  Low pressure nearby and Azores retreat. Oh dear

An increasingly mixed outlook? The 12Z updates will be interesting today. 

ECM ENS also shows a significantly increased chance of rain. It's the grey and red numbers which should be looked at.

Thanks for sympathising with my plight. 😀 The A12 heads north before it reaches me (A127) so I need it to be East of the A12 but I get what you are saying. To me the week looks above av temps and warm but not hot with hope of some rain but no more than that really. Probably end up like week before last with a couple of bits but nothing notable.

Its feels like when a good cold spell in Jan comes to an end, and for a while the models predicted another, only to gradually roll back to the point at which the rest of the winter is atlantic dominated