The new you lasted all of ten minutes then 🤣🤣

You writing for the Express now?😁

This time unlike in 1995 we had an excellent June. I can see this summer easily coming in the top 3 hottest of all time at the very least. 🙂🙂🙂

Just watched the Met Office vid on possible coming Heatwave and yes the potential is there but nothing is "nailed on"🤔

12Z GEFS has 12 runs hitting 20C at 850mb, so one fewer than the 00Z.

What's also notable is that several of them have more than one spike of heat.

ECM also looks pretty hot albeit high pressure is still less keen to push north and cover the whole country. 

Perhaps for England or at least some areas of England that might be a possibility, Brian. However, I can't see this summer turning out notably warm or hot overall for Scotland unless there is a major change in the prevailing pattern sometime soon.

June 1995, in spite of the cool weather in the first half of the month, was a far better month overall here than June just gone and we did have some warm days here that month before the first real heatwave arrived around the 21st/22nd.

I can see this summer turning out to be one of the hottest on record for some parts of England at least. However, I said above, I can't see the same coming to pass up here unless there is a major change in the pattern soon and HP can build right over the UK and remain in situ for a while, as per the set-up we had for most of the spring.

Thanks David, a voice of reason 🙂

You dont really go to Scotland for hot weather though do you , more of an escape from the heat of the S.E.. I am well familiar with the climate of the far North haveing family there and visited all my life . Up there they use Norwegian met forecasts as U.K. ones fail to mention the climate of the far north which in the most is totally different. 

 An example would be a Summers day around now when the early morning temp would not be so different to the far south , however by early afternoon  the temp would just reach  mid to high teens and that would be it. Up in the hills it might reach around 12C. North of Inverness the climate is for the most part totally different to the rest of the country.

The question is whether the anomaly in the southern half of the UK will be enough. A rising tide and all that...

No sane person goes to Scotland in July or August unless they like feeding the midges and clegs 😛 

Perhaps so, Brian. We shall see what the rest of July and August bring us. 

What I would say in respect of my own location is that this summer has thus far not felt especially warm to me, generally speaking. Since the sustained settled spell that dominated most of May came to an end, there have only been a dozen or so days in the last six weeks which I would describe as feeling anything close to summery. The rest of the time our temperatures have been average or just above at best and very few fully dry days. I realise that things have been very different for much of the time in southern areas as many posts in this thread demonstrate very clearly, and so far this seems to have been very much a NW/SE 'split' summer. I don't know what the rest of Scotland has been like in recent weeks for amounts of warmth and dry days; perhaps some areas to the east/north-east of Scotland have done better than my area.

I appreciate the points about your locality, but I just checked out the UK Met monthly summary:

"The UK saw its second warmest June"

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/summaries/index 

Obviously, no one can say with certainty what the rest of the summer will bring. That said, I don't think it's an exaggeration or disingenuous to suggest that given the June we've had, the current model output, and the trends in recent decades, we could potentially be looking at one of the UK's warmest summers on record.

It does look like things will improve for the north as time goes by gfs mean at 150

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=150&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

Have to say stunning run for s and se this theme of the ease of the ridge appears to be the summer pattern.

Stunning and very dry London

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=1&mode=7&sort=0 

All very true, Brian.

I wonder what the Central Scotland Temperature for June was and how it compared to the CET in England. My guess is that was still above average but not to the same extent as was the case in England. I remember June 2023 was also very warm overall (the warmest on record for the UK generally I think), but the very warm/hot and settled weather covered pretty well all of the British Isles that month until the last third and wasn't mostly confined to England, unlike June just gone. 

With current sst way above normal especially med any moderation of extreme heat will be less it seems the euro heat dome will probably send sst to a record, hence it’s common sense records are more easily broken.

Evidence suggest we pay in Europe in Autumn with well above rainfall

A good read

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/marine-heatwave-summer-2025-mediterranean-heat-dome-europe-mk/ 

That's what gave the 40C in 2022. 

Well , we've had June which had a CET of 

17.0C. I reckon  we could see a CET of 18.5 for July and say 18.0 for August. A not unreasonable expectation given what we're seeing at the moment. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

My misery is focussed on how utterly screwed our climate has become.  Within my lifetime we’ve gone from 30c being an absolute rarity to seemingly an event that occurs regularly and without any particularly special synoptics.  An Azores high wouldn’t have produced 30c before higher ocean temperatures and increased CO2.

Is nobody else deeply troubled by what’s happening and the speed of it?

Agreed. I remember during the aforementioned 1990 August heatwave coming back from our annual family holiday and finding the country in meltdown and shocked at seeing brown grass  and tabloid stories of plebs frying eggs on car bonnets. And yet we barely reached 90F.   

It is troubling, but most plebs dont care unless something happens, such as the Valencia floods, California wildfires or the Texas storms today which have killed a lot of people, but even then its only localised.  Only when something dramatic happens that affects continents like one of those disaster movies will people take note, but of course it will be too late to act by then anyway. Its probably too late already

GFS 0z goes wrong this morning as LP gets trapped over the UK. It manages four 30c days but nothing extreme.  

GEM is still up for it though direct  hit from the plume likely multiple mid 30c days, still going day 10.

I'd phrase that as a much better GFS 0z, and I'm pleased to see the MetO run also supports lower heights next weekend. I'd rather take 24C and sunshine than the ridiculous 30-something temperatures that were being toyed with.

GEM shows it's far from settled at this stage, mind you! 

AIFS 0z has a couple of very hot days prob mid 30s next Saturday.  Then LP blows it away by Monday. Quickly rebuilds heat after that though. Becoming very hot again. 🥵🥵🥵

Liquorice allsorts from.the models this morning. 

That'll do nicely.  

Agree entirely . Yes 30 degrees was a rarity in my 60s childhood despite the rose tints of some of my compatriots who remember long hot summers being the norm when the opposite is true .  And the overly used phrase "it's called summer what do you expect" really winds me up!!