AIFS looks good for Scotland this morning 

I actually think the SE of England has entered a new climate zone in comparison to the rest of the country. It is far more continental down here now, very little Atlantic rain seems to get here now even in winter and most of our rain now comes up from the south rather than from the west.

What people "want" has absolutely no bearing on what the weather does, so I don't understand why people get upset by other people's weather preferences. I'm just glad that whatever the weather does, some weirdo will be enjoying it 😉

GFS 6z is slightly warm down south, every day from next Wednesday is 25c or above with a few 30's chucked in for good measure.

I saved a chart from the 00Z GEFS for anyone in Scotland who wants some heat :)

20C isotherm well past 60 degrees north!

Yes please Rob 😁

Another roasting AIFS 6z. Mid 30s + at points 

I know seems crazy to me, having said that if it was Winter I would probably want it as cold and as much snow as possible. There's no guarantee of the next heatwave just yet though but the impression you get on here is that another 35c+ heatwave is nailed on.

There are some very hot members in the GEFS 06z (likely including some 40C+ maxes), so although we've had a couple of MEHish runs from several models in the last 24 hours the overall pattern remains.

In 2022 I got into the habit of calculating the "average max" 850hpa across all the ensemble perturbations. Because they all peak at different times the average 850 line is always lower than where most runs will end up.

On this 00z the maxes for London are, from P1-P30 plus CON and OP:  17, 20, 20, 18, 23, 21, 15, 20, 18, 14, 23, 16, 23, 15, 20, 16, 14, 17, 18, 15, 23, 20, 17, 18, 17, 20, 19, 16, 20, 16, 22, 16

The average (mean) max is 18.34C. At this time of year and assuming sunshine that equates to a surface max of around 33-34C. So the average model perturbation is peaking at some point at 33-34C. There are 13 runs with a max of 20C+, i.e. at least 35-36C, and 4 runs that hit 23C: getting close to 40C. The coolest peak in the set is 14, which still gives us at least 30C.

For GEFS 06C we have an average max of 17.5C and a few runs only getting to 13C. So the peaks are a bit lower although there is one member at 24C.

Nine runs in the 06Z GEFS exceed 20C at 850mb in London. Same for the 00Z.

Actually once the full 06 ensemble had run the average max was 17.9C, so not that far off 00z.

Not upset by peoples weather preferences but there is now a serious disconnect to "What i want and am entitled to" and the actual effects of such wishes

Yes, the Azores high pushing in seems to be a permanent feature.  

General pattern on GFS and AIFS pretty much remains very similar - lots of high pressure around the UK, mostly but not exclusively over the southern half. Occasional incursions of low pressure from the N or NW, but none being modelled to stick around for more than a day or two (away from NW Scotland) before HP reasserts.

The far reaches of FI do seem to be playing around with a different scenario, where high pressure is centred further north

GFS 12z very slow today, but not worth waiting for as it again goes cooler and changeable.

The trend to a more unsettled (though not massively so) July is becoming clearer.

The rainfall totals on the GFS 12z op run show a very dry picture across much of the SE over the next 16 days or so. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_384_49.png 

I'd say the GFS 12z is very NW/SE split . It's basically scorchio all the way in the SE.

AIFS is hot for all. Remarkable charts atm. 

The actual ECM 12z is all a bit uninspiring again too though.

I really do think we've seen the hottest spell this summer.

I also think we will get continued dry and summery weather at times, but more standard stuff, 27-28c, which will do just fine!

Well seeing as it reached 35.8C on Monday that wouldn't be a massive surprise. Assuming that is ratified, it's hotter than 140 of the past 150 years (and hotter than all but four years in the entire 20th century.

And yet based on the current model output, I certainly wouldn't bet on it. Even the "cooler and less settled" (relatively) 12Z GFS has temperatures reaching 35C on three separate days.

Where was the 35.8C, I missed that?

Ecm 12z is a bit meh , but would.still likely have a run of 30c days for the South.

AIFS has been brilliant this Summer and is now consistently showing a heatwave that would be historic. Obviously it may not happen but I think we could be on the brink of a record month. 

Like the coolest wettest June we've just had? , your forecast.

I actually never forecast the coolest wettest June, I merely said what the models were consistently showing that it was likely to turn cooler and more changeable.

It didn't, which shows the infallible nature of computer models.

I think July is likely to be cooler than June, but not cold...

Time, as ever, will tell.

Time was, 28c was a very hot day 😉    Now it's just "standard" ......  ?   

Not sure we'll seen any below average days here in S Worcs at all this month.  Certainly nothing on the horizon atm.    That in itself will make July a very warm month, probably one of the warmest on record.     As well as continuing one of the driest periods on record.   

Personally, 18c and rain every day would make a very pleasant change 😛 

See the heatwave thread - Brogdale was right in the prime spot for the heat on Monday. It took its time posting the reading though!