The Weather Outlook

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Saint Snow
01 July 2025 12:12:14

GFS 6z turns into another 1976er. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I wouldn't go quite that far, but it's good.

We're in Crete next week, so miss some rubbish weather here. But we're in Devon end of July/early Aug and really want the weather to play ball for that.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Taylor1740
01 July 2025 12:13:36

GFS 6z turns into another 1976er. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It looks a lot cooler and more average for the next 10 days though, only building the heat again in the longer range.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
01 July 2025 12:15:31

Latest AIFS 6z is more of a continuation of the SE/NE split. Hot at times in the SE but cooler more unsettled further NW.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

As ever, it's where that line is drawn - as it can cover a multitude of sins!

I've seen it drawn from Humber to Bristol Channel and from Forth to Solway.... and all points in between.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Ally Pally Snowman
01 July 2025 12:16:46

It looks a lot cooler and more average for the next 10 days though, only building the heat again in the longer range.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Wednesday the 9th seems to be the date the next heatwave might start. Will it be the Big One? 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
01 July 2025 12:26:54

Wednesday the 9th seems to be the date the next heatwave might start. Will it be the Big One? 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

When you say 'the Big One', are you referring to extreme temps? Or to a prolonged spell of dry and warmth?

It'd be good if Brian allowed polls on the forum. I'd be interested in whether people would prefer the school summer holiday period - the 'traditional' summer - to be, say:

1) a week with temps into the mid-30's and perhaps 40c but otherwise average and unsettled

2) 7 weeks of dry, sunny, warm (temps mid-high 20's) with the odd TS


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Ally Pally Snowman
01 July 2025 12:34:50

When you say 'the Big One', are you referring to extreme temps? Or to a prolonged spell of dry and warmth?

It'd be good if Brian allowed polls on the forum. I'd be interested in whether people would prefer the school summer holiday period - the 'traditional' summer - to be, say:

1) a week with temps into the mid-30's and perhaps 40c but otherwise average and unsettled

2) 7 weeks of dry, sunny, warm (temps mid-high 20's) with the odd TS

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The Big One for me would be 2 weeks of high 30s, basically 76 but now. 

I like heat but working in London isn't much fun when it's over 32ish. 

June here has been superb mid 20s to low 30s for 3 weeks. 

I'd pick option 2 though if I had to.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
01 July 2025 12:41:05

Be nice if the heat could extend well up into Scotland and we have the high pressure further North East.  

Had some lovely weather here and it has been warm, dry, but borderline at times with periods of cloud and wind around the top of the high. 


Tim

NW Leeds

187m asl

 My PWS 

Chunky Pea
01 July 2025 13:13:44
Be interesting to see if this trend can continue into the Autumn and Winter. A trend that started roughly around the time of the late January Altantic storm. 

UserPostedImage

Anomoly not evenly distributed across the basin though, with the cooler waters to the north near balanced out by the warmer waters in the mid section that roughly aligns with the mean position of the Azores high. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Rob K
01 July 2025 13:31:41

GFS 6Z not quite as hot as the 0Z but still very warm to hot. Another run at the top of the GEFS pack though.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

fairweather
01 July 2025 13:39:40

They seem to avoid talking about the SE most of the time - despite it being the most populous region of the UK by far. The drought here is remarkable, yet barely mentioned. You can count on the fingers on one hand the amount of of meaningful spells of rain we have had since March. An extraordinary dry spell and as you note, no end in sight. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

I think this is a backlash from a few years ago when everybody was accusing the BBC of a S.E> bias which maybe there was some justification for. Certainly a few on here used to moan about it. Now they have gone all regional and as usual with this sort of thing they have overreacted and the S.E. is under represented to the extent that sometimes in the towns they put up in the outlook for the next couple of days sometimes the nearest one to London is a 100 miles away when all the regional capitals should be there. It is 18 million people who are affected after all!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
speckledjim
01 July 2025 13:43:21

I wouldn't go quite that far, but it's good.

We're in Crete next week, so miss some rubbish weather here. But we're in Devon end of July/early Aug and really want the weather to play ball for that.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Off to Crete next week too - Plakias


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

fairweather
01 July 2025 13:45:35

Looks truly unbearable here this afternoon - my poor pup was most unimpressed the other day when it reached 32, but 35 is on the menu today. As an aside, the UVK captures the foehn effect from the North Downs perfectly! (Image via TWO).

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/ukv/ukv_custom/ukv_2025_JUL_01_03_12_2mmaxtemp_50.9_0.4_1.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

33.2C here now at 14.40. Generally peaks around 4pm in these conditions. Hottest day of the year so far.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Essan
01 July 2025 13:52:35

When you say 'the Big One', are you referring to extreme temps? Or to a prolonged spell of dry and warmth?

If the latter means the warmest, and 2nd driest, June on record (going back to 2003 and 2007 respectively) then I can confidently say I've already had it  😉     

I'll be quite happy from now on if it rains every 3 days and the temp never rises above 24c again.     Ever.

If you want a repeat of June, go to the Mediterranean - that's what it's for 😛      


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

fairweather
01 July 2025 14:03:01

The ECM ensembles still show the next week to ten days in the S.E. not really rising above 25C before the hot stuff starts to reappear.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Hungry Tiger
01 July 2025 14:57:47

If the latter means the warmest, and 2nd driest, June on record (going back to 2003 and 2007 respectively) then I can confidently say I've already had it  😉     

I'll be quite happy from now on if it rains every 3 days and the temp never rises above 24c again.     Ever.

If you want a repeat of June, go to the Mediterranean - that's what it's for 😛      

Originally Posted by: Essan 

😅😅😅😅😅🤣


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
01 July 2025 16:53:40

The extent of the heat over Europe at T288 on the GFS 12Z is just staggering. The 20C isotherm covers most of Europe, from the Atlantic to the Black Sea, as far north as northern Germany.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

bledur
01 July 2025 17:51:16

I wouldn't go quite that far, but it's good.

We're in Crete next week, so miss some rubbish weather here. But we're in Devon end of July/early Aug and really want the weather to play ball for that.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I never understand why people head west expecting drier weather . Far more likely to be dry in somewhere like Broadstairs than Bude for instance.🤔

Brian Gaze
01 July 2025 17:53:38
I wonder how much rain there will be in southern Britain this weekend? The GFS has been spray-painting it around, but as the time approaches, the picture starts to moderate. I haven't checked the totals from the UK Met Global, but at a glance, I wouldn't expect them to be notable. 

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

bledur
01 July 2025 17:53:46

If the latter means the warmest, and 2nd driest, June on record (going back to 2003 and 2007 respectively) then I can confidently say I've already had it  😉     

I'll be quite happy from now on if it rains every 3 days and the temp never rises above 24c again.     Ever.

If you want a repeat of June, go to the Mediterranean - that's what it's for 😛      

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Yes if you are a heat and dry weather lover you have been totally spoilt by June so lets have the cooler temps and rain and the Hotties will just have to lump it😁

bledur
01 July 2025 18:25:56

I wonder how much rain there will be in southern Britain this weekend? The GFS has been spray-painting it around, but as the time approaches, the picture starts to moderate. I haven't checked the totals from the UK Met Global, but at a glance, I wouldn't expect them to be notable. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Certainly getting downgraded on BBC forecasts.🙄

Rob K
01 July 2025 18:55:05

Yet another hot GFS run, ending in a run of six 30C+ days with no end in sight.

The control run is even hotter, culminating in a run of four 35C+ days and heat still building at the end of the run.

If any of these are near the mark then 2025 will be one for the record books.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
01 July 2025 19:19:06

Yet another hot GFS run, ending in a run of six 30C+ days with no end in sight.

The control run is even hotter, culminating in a run of four 35C+ days and heat still building at the end of the run.

If any of these are near the mark then 2025 will be one for the record books.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

And a 7th and probably 8-10th 30C on the cards looking at the 384 pattern. 

ECM looks a bit odd, and AIFS goes in a completely different (but not bad) direction. 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
01 July 2025 20:09:08

I wonder how much rain there will be in southern Britain this weekend? The GFS has been spray-painting it around, but as the time approaches, the picture starts to moderate. I haven't checked the totals from the UK Met Global, but at a glance, I wouldn't expect them to be notable. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That's been the case so far Brian, the s.e has had force field around it with pathetic amounts. The grass is dead dust.


Berkshire
Downpour
01 July 2025 23:02:29

I think this is a backlash from a few years ago when everybody was accusing the BBC of a S.E> bias which maybe there was some justification for. Certainly a few on here used to moan about it. Now they have gone all regional and as usual with this sort of thing they have overreacted and the S.E. is under represented to the extent that sometimes in the towns they put up in the outlook for the next couple of days sometimes the nearest one to London is a 100 miles away when all the regional capitals should be there. It is 18 million people who are affected after all!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I think there’s likely some truth in that. I have seen more coverage on the BBC recently of the European (ie continental) heatwave than that down here. Both are unpleasant, and worthy of coverage, but it often seems that they don’t want to risk SE bias. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

The Beast from the East
02 July 2025 01:23:35

Thursday's deluge remains highly likely too.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Sorry to do this to you moomin!   


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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