Its there on the latest GFS op and control .  looking rather worrying. this would cause flash flooding.  All that rain we have missed since March seems to be coming in one day!

Interesting I watched the BBC documentary on the Valencia flooding the other day, 

Faversham (Brogdale), my nearest station, had a max of 30.8 in June (3 days above 30), 32.0 in July (1 day above 30) and just 27.9 in August.

By current standards it was a very sustained warm blast rather than anything amazingly hot. 

GFS has 33 there on Monday and Tuesday, the MetO raw has 32 (both models have the same for here). It's ironic in a way that we've already exceeded anything locally in 1976 (with 32.4 the other week), yet people still talk about 76 in reverential terms!

🤣🤣🤣 I'm not, but perhaps I should be.

GFS starting to firm up on a very wet spell towards the end of the week, and a lot cooler.

Doesn't seem to last long and other models not in agreement, but I feel the rain is soon to return, giving the place a much needed drink!

Indeed  people always cite 76  every time  it gets hot now and say that there was no talk of climate change then as if to deny the warming of our summers and climate generally since around 1989.  The phrase that winds me up the most is ' it's summer ' what do you expect as though these consistent high temps should be regarded as normal for the UK .  They don't believe you when you tell them average temp should be nearer 20 in Southern England at this time of year !  

75 and 6 stood out in a decade of very cool often very wet summers all of which I remember . And yet so many always think of their childhood summers as much better than now ! Short memories and rose tints ! 

Something I've not seen before, GFS has a 9 UV index here on Monday. The MetO raw just has its usual 7 instead...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/9uv.jpg 

Also of note is another belch of very hot air coming in on Thursday, GFS has another 33 here and there's fairly widespread 30s across the SE and East Anglia.

Yes GFS keeps the heat in the SE until Thursday this morning.  I'm not convinced.  It then brings back the heat again later on. It's been pretty consistent with this. AIFS again doesn't have the heat returning and is poor after Wednesday for most of its run.

2 days ago the GFS had a short sharp drop after Monday. The heat looks like extending to at least Thursday now, with another potential peak.

Will be interesting to see other model takes on this.

It has a fair amount of support in the ensembles. 

It's showing as 8.5 on the TWO forecast page which is also using GFS data. It could be using a slightly different grid point.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/leysdown-on-sea--kent 

I think the GFS 00z op run seems a bit of an outlier here in terms of precipitation.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/graphe_ens9.php?x=&y=&ext=0&run=0&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0 

75mm wouldn't even make up half the deficit I have since the beginning of March!    But yes,  that much falling in 24 hours would cause serious flash flooding, even at the best of times, let alone when falling on hard baked ground.   Whether this week or later in the summer, it's assuredly going to happen sooner or later.

I suspect it's more likely that xc just rounds up or down! The surrounding days have 8s, which would fit the values shown on TWO.

Incidentally MetO is the odd one out here, they round up anything from 0.1 upwards, e.g. a 7.1 would show as an 8 on their maps.

It does have support from some of its own ensembles tbf.

I'm more interested in what happens after that , how long do we have to wait for the heat to return? GFS says not very long , AIFS no sign yet.

ECM has a decent ridge of HP after the heat. The models are all over the place though. 

2nd week of July atm is looking quite poor ,  LP over Scandi and a cool showery flow over UK seems the form horse. With the exception of GFS. 

Arpege this morning has 35c Monday and 37c Tuesday.  🥵🥵🥵

Very interesting ukmo  Spanish low moves North just to our se  cold front buckles and slows as it approaches low, delays any cooler air into Wednesday this would cause huge amounts of rainfall, low then decide to move back se with front moving thru, cooler air wins out but settled weather returning as ridge moves Ne

Gfs opp models it but hasn’t got a gripe of it yet

Interesting times

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000 

It's worth looking at the grey numbers on the ECM ENS because they show the probability of dry conditions at the given time step. They reach a low of 44% on the London plot before starting to increase again. The chart below is from the 12Z update.

Pouring with unforecast rain here for the last hour or so, yet nothing on the radar. It’s not localised either as it’s pouring in Weston Super Mare where my parents live, 40 miles away 

Back to the models - notable thing for me is that high pressure and heat is never far away on most output.  

C'mon now you know that this is more than 'a short heatwave'. Why try to minimise something that is the symptom of a human caused effect that will be having a huge effect on agriculture this year and in the future?

We all need to wise up to what is happening and how to sort it.

Yes, there will be a lot of run off. Two more non compliant block paving driveways gone in down our road this week. I will be alright that as I have a SUDS fully compliant resin bound porous driveway and some flower beds and a "proper" back garden so the rain will be more than welcome.

It’s notable that 1976 was the ONLY year in the sixties, seventies or eighties that we reached 35C. Now it happens about one year in every two. 

ARPEGE has really ramped up the heat with a 37C on Tuesday but UKV is a smidge less hot than of late. 

Yes, that matches my memory. But has the longevity of the '76 spell ever been matched? I seemed to remember it running from May till the end of August when I managed to go on holiday after having moved house and it rained! Although this is surely the longest pretty dry spell given the high temperatures and amount of sunshine for the period March/April to end of June?

Pretty much nailed on for an exceptionally wet Thursday from GFS. This is several consecutive runs showing an absolute deluge. Can't see it being wrong. The trend is clear.

The 6Z run has the heaviest rain missing the southeast though. 

It does yes, but much of the country gets a good soaking. 

Now, where did I put my Ark?

GFS also settles things down again nicely soon after.