Hadley

13.9 to the 12th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

14.4 to the 13th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 91 to 20 average

From some of the models I've seen I'm pretty confident I'll get my 16.0C

🙂🙂🙂🙂

Hadley

14.6 to the 14th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Underestimate- seems 14.6 within the week. The building warmth looks likely to produce almost a week's worth of 17+ days which should lead to mid 15s by next weekend even with some cooler moments possible from Stonyhurst. In fact the MetO forcecast means for nearest big  towns (Luton, Blackburn and Worcester) to the CET locations suggest an average daily mean of 19.9 for the week including today for both Luton and Worcester and 17.2 for Blackburn, giving an average across the 3 stations of 19.0. This is of course in sizable urban areas and the stations themselves are in more rural areas so expected to be down on that, but even with a weekly mean of a full degree less, 7 CET days of 18 across the triangle would take us into the uppermost 15s.

Hadley

14.7 to the 15th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

14.9 to the 16th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 91 to 20 average

A few of the GFS runs in the past few days would have led to a June CET in the top 3.

Even since it started sweeping the imminent hot spell aside by Monday, most runs have been good for a top ten June, due to a tendency to develop a new, potentially higher magnitude hot spell by next weekend.

What a time to be alive - both in positive and negative senses!

Definitely think we'll get to 16C. 

HadCET 15.0°C to 17th.

Frightening isn't it?! The speed of change is what gets me - my two kids are 6 and 4 and it's difficult to imagine the British climate they'll be living in when they're my or their grandparents age. I suspect it'll be largely unrecognisable to us.

There's an article out in the BBC today that says a new study by the Met Office gives a current theoretical maximum of 46c for London as possible in today's climate. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8d6jmmdq5go.amp

On a different and more on topic note this upcoming heatwave is going to shake up things in thd CET competition again - there'll be quite a few breathing a sigh of relief after the cold start!

HadCET 15.2°C to 18th.

With these sorts of charts I'm happy to go for 17.5C for July.  🙂🙂🙂

HadCET 15.5°C to 19th.

Hadley

15.8 to the 20th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.1 to the 21st

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 91 to 20 average

I'll be very surprised if it drops from this.  🙂 

Hadley

16.1 to the 22nd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 91 to 20 average

Hadley

16.1 to the 23rd

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 91 to 20 average

Mine are 21 and 17

Their early childhoods were characterised by absolutely shite summers (2007-2012). The elder one especially had several primary school sports days cancelled, and the number of what I'd class as 'beach days' (at least 25c and sunny) were vanishingly rare.

Recent forecast model predictions give a June CET estimate that could be in the hottest 3 on record.

https://bsky.app/profile/peacockreports.bsky.social/post/3lse5gk3psk2g 

Considering it was running below the 1991-2020 average as of 11th, that's an impressive feat.

Where I am in Dorset, there's this sense of 'easy warmth', which due to being within around 20 miles of the Channel, isn't usually seen until some way into July. Alongside the weather setup, a major catalyst for this is sea temperatures to the SW of the UK being widely over 3°C above the 1991-2020 average.

Hadley

16.2 to the 24th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 91 to 20 average

🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

Hadley

16.3 to the 25th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 91 to 20 average

:) 🙂 🙂