Indeed - I keep looking in vain for signs of a breakdown IMBY... or even a return to normal temperatures (21C this time of year), but nope, the warm spell goes on without an end in sight.

It's day 8 of the warm spell - 7 of those 8 days have reached 25C here, the remaining day reached 24.7. The 12z GFS has 26, 31, 27, 24, 26, 28, 28 for the next 7 days... even the coldest day is still 3C above normal, which qualifies as a warm day on the official MetO scale. 

The Met Office's raw output has 28, 32, 27, 25, 24, 24... so no end in sight there, either. 

We'll have had at least a 2-week warm or hot spell down here with abundant sunshine and so far there's only been one spell of rain (from nearby storms) - that's a sixth of the summer, and should surely satisfy anyone after warmth, rather than record-breaking heat!

Can't disagree. 

Most model runs including the 12Z GFS show plenty of high 20s to low 30s until the end of the month. 

GFS goes from 30C max on the 30th to 12C on 1st July as noted above!

AIFS 12z is absolutely roasting run.

Swings and roundabouts isn't it Ally?

We are no further forward with weather modelling than we were 15 years ago.

As Matty H often says, and hes not wrong, you can only accurately predict a couple of days out at most in most situations. 

So why is the BBC forecasting 19 C everyday next week here from Sunday and showery at times? It's only a 2 day hot spell here.

“Surely one of the coldest July days on record if this 12z GFS verified, which thankfully it won't. 11c at 3pm on 1st July. Laughable.”

I agree with both of you.

🤣🤣

Moomin  - Someone wrote above (Dev I think) that whilst forecasting specifics at range is still something of a lottery, trend projections have improved. Rather than look at an operational run in isolation, look at all runs, all ens and look for themes. As someone else (sorry) said, also above, the theme for warm, even hot, temperatures remains 

It's fine margins the ECM 12z is a NW- SE split upto day 8 then it goes hot again. Europe is boiling atm and if we can get a proper feed from it we could easily have another significant hot spell (multiple 30 + days) next 2 weeks. Or it could get much more unsettled but I think that's less likely atm

The latest UKV actually has tomorrow as the hottest day, with a 34C modelled in S Yorks/Lincs. It iwll be interesting to see if it is right with the hottest conditions that far north.

Ties in with the MetO forecast. The heat appears more aligned across a much larger area of England and Wales, with the hottest temps up the spine of the country 

Thought you heat lovers would be excited by the pub rub, albeit deep FI.   I was hoping we could avoid another 40c this year, but its looking very possible with the Euro heat dome never too far away

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=1 

As others have pointed out. I am not sure where this breakdown talk is coming from?

0z is a roasting run for the SE. Monday is the only blip and yet still above average. Heat back strongly from middle of next week. Another run showing the June record continues to be in with a shout.

Sat: 32C

Sun: 27C

Mon: 23C

Tues: 27C

Wed: 29C

Thu: 29C

Fri: 31C

Sat: 32C

Sun: 34C

Mon: 36C

Tue: 30C

One of the record breaking highs was reached on the North Notts/South Yorks border at Gringly on the Hill, reaching 40.1c on July 19th 2022.  Coningsby in Lincolnshire actually took the record at 40.3c on the same day.  Both are very close to me. So the highest temp in this area isn’t out of the question and we’re not actually that far North.

ECM; like GFS though the LP is a bit further S from Iceland making the W-ly winds markedly stronger esp Fri 27th

GEM; the W-lies don't last as the HP returns from the SW Thu 25th, but positioned over the Low Countries so that the flow is from S/SW rather than S/SE thus warm rather than hot. 

GEFS; temps drop back to norm Mon 23rd then recover to 4 or 5C above norm in S, 2 or 3C above in N, falling back by Thu 3rd though the Op is a wild hot outlier Fri 4th (15C above norm in S). Mostly dry in the S, a few runs have occasional big spikes of rain esp Tue 1st in SE. In the N, small amounts of rain likely at first, something more persistent from Tue 1st , esp in NW, but not heavy.

ECM 0Z Not interested in the above temperatures at all. Very flat and westerly and uninspiring. 

GFS 0Z is also an outlier (again) at the end of the run.

The general trend across the models as a whole is for a return to more standard summer weather. Still usable at times, but also changeable.

Bit of a split this morning for heat fans, GFS , GEM AIFS all great. ECM and UKMO rubbish 

I think the Beeb are siding with ECM/UKMO as the app is showing quite depressed temperatures and a fair amount of rain or showers around for the next 10 days in my area.

I know the app is a bit crap, but it is showing very changeable and quite cool conditions. 

Well as my Dad always said "if you bet on the inevitable you will always win". Of course it will cool down, and of course it will rain, but in the reliable even the ECM and Meto are showing warm and dry conditions. (Someone needs to look at the 850's)

I’ve just looked at Witney and  the temperatures are about average or above for June. Not sure how that translates to quite depressed. 6/10 of the next 10 days in your area are +25C or more.  Also, what is a fair amount of rain, light right/showers with some drizzle seem to be what is shown

The ECM 12Z ensemble average is really quite similar to the GFS 0Z for London. In terms of 850pa temps they both show a sharp drop from about 18C to around 5C this weekend then a rise next week back up to over 10C for a number of days before tailing off in early July. Obviously averages can be very misleading and you have to say that the ECM 0z Ops run looks more unsettled. Once again I'll be interested to see where it sits in the ensembles.

I do think the chances of breaking the June temperature record are very low for this year. Plenty of heat over Europe but not the right synoptics to bring a prolonged plume our way. But it feels like only a matter of time before that record does tumble.

I remember Darren once saying that climate change is like a tide coming in. Little waves that generally don't pass beyond the highest point but the trend is upwards and so every now and then it gets breached. A very good analogy.  

Yes and the Met office LRF suggests a changeable spell out to mid-July with possible hot spells confined to the SE which ties in with the majority of the model output I'm seeing at the moment.

I'm not sure where the talk of "depressed temperatures" comes from unless it refers to average to above average as opposed hot. There is little in the model output to show a pattern for depressed temperatures unless you pick specific dates and locations on specific individual model runs. Cooler than the current very warm/ hot conditions can still be warm (and indeed warmer than average).

Exactly this. One or two (one) have been stating it’ll turn unsettled for nearly two weeks now. Bound to be right eventually, albeit having been wrong for days/weeks

I would say more changeable weather looks more likely now, and that’s not been the case for quite some time