From next Wednesday 25th -

28c, 30c, 33c, 37c

Absolutely right . Anyone welcoming 40c heat in this country needs to bear in mind the state of the NHS which would be overwhelmed by a severe heatwave not to mention rail and Tube travel ,and again our dwindling water supplies  will not cope .

Probably but then a wet July and August would be on the cards.

Definitely been way away from average for the Highlands so far this Spring /early summer. Very warm and dry.

I think this could be more a case of the 'chicken and the egg' thing going on, as the jet stream coming out of the N. America in recent weeks has be relatively flat and average, thus helping to steer down those cooler winds over the region zapping up some of that excessive heat in that part of the ocean. 

If this part of the N. Atlantic stays this relatively cool towards the Autumn and Winter, it could help generate some very deep low pressure systems, but I'm getting ahead of myself... 😂

I don't think much has changed in the last 24 hours. On the ECM ENS below you can see the % chance of dry conditions at each step. 

Is there also a Greenland ice melt influence on those colder temperatures?

Its been such a cool unsettled washout June so far according to some forecasters in here.

Oh wait....

GFS 6Z looks a less hot run on the face of it but still serves up a 37C before the month is out. Perhaps the faulty soil moisture parameter is to blame.

The new best model AIFS is properly unsettled now next week. V poor.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=18&run=6&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

👌👌👌👌👌👌

I reckon there must be something wrong with it to keep showing these extremely hot temperatures only for them to get watered down quite a bit nearer the time.

That fine and be out of the country by then and any rain will water my plant pots.  Also rather not get very hot on the travel day as will miss out. Some earlier runs show mid 30s in my travel day.  

Nothing out of the ordinary here. Temperature running on average, rainfall and sunshine at 70% up to 0900 this morning

My sense is it's starting to go pear shaped next week now. We need the 12s to stop the rot. Especially AIFS

My sense is that we are pulling away from unbearable heat to a sunny warm outlook. And the pear will ripen nicely 

Some of us will be happy with that.

If by "pear shaped" you mean sunny and low-mid 20s, rising to high 20s later, then I'll take the pear!

Would anybody seriously enjoy 40c in the UK ?

It's fine in countries where everything is designed to cope with temperatures like that, but we are not one of those countries.

30c is hot enough here - 40c would be horrendous

That would be great , AIFS was quite wet for everyone though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=18&run=6&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Agreed - the trend is not your friend if you are wanting extreme high temperatures, however still looks a very warm end to June at least in the SE 

Yes, it was horrendous - I'll long remember carrying a whole load of Chromebooks across the baking school playground on that fateful day. Every breath burned, it hurt just to stay alive!

I paid for and stayed in a hotel room that evening, stuff going home to a 40+ house (as it'd been closed up all day). It cost me £80 to be a climate refugee for the night... but it was well worth it, the aircon was set to 19C and I had a wonderful night's sleep.

We will get 40C again in my lifetime, I'm sure, as the seal has been broken so to speak. Last time it started as a rogue outlier on the GFS, then the others picked up... I still remember GEM with its widespread 43s! Thankfully that was as overcooked as the winter chill it loves to show.

As for Brian's point about the GFS not handling drying very well, I find it interesting as there's no moisture at the surface already... the ground here at least is baked solid.

AIFS is quite poor for most next week but other output is still OK for the SE. But it's fine margins wouldn't take much for it to become much more unsettled. 

You might not want to read this new study by the Met Office then Retron:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.7741 

It gives a 50:50 chance of 40c happening within 12 years of the 2022 date and moreover suggests that the theoretical possible UK maximum in today's climate is a staggering 46.6c!!

It makes for grim reading. 

I will take comfort for the time being in 46.6c being just theoretical!