That's what I would expect to see with the tendency for the Azores HP to repeatedly build. The additional factors at play are a) extremely dry ground b) intense heat over southern Europe c) warm seas. I still think a lot of the ingredients for a classic are in place. That said, no one can say and it may still turn out to be a very mediocre summer. 

UKV suggests the max temp is likely to be around 32C - 33C. 

This morning's Arpege going for 35C. My guess is the top official temperature reported by the UKM will be 32C. That's factoring in the sparsity of reporting stations and recent model runs. The June record is very unlikely to be beaten in this spell, although if the heat returns towards the end of the month it is more likely to go.

Fortunately it’s not what is being modelled overall. Far from it. ‘CURRENTLY’ looking like temps cooling off a little into next week before high pressure rebuilds again and the more extreme heat returns

Certainly nothing unsettled is in the models. Could all change, but that’s the current overall theme  

I'd disagree there's definitely unsettled weather in the output especially for the NW. AIFS was the first to pick this up and all models are slowly coming in line. AIFS statistically now is performing better than any model. Obviously it still could be wrong about it becoming more unsettled.  But I doubt it. 

Looking at GFS, ECM & MetO and despite some media hype, it looks like a waft of warm air for here Friday and maybe Saturday. Next week it's back to our usual changeable and boisterous westerly.

(edit - 2nd, not 1st. The 1st only gets to 42!)

Indeed. We need to ponder why our attitude is adapt not to solve. Especially as if we don't solve the problem it will simply get worse and worse.

Is it simply human laziness, or ignorance? Or are we being encouraged to do so?

Oh joy...Why it might get to 45-50C in our lifetimes. How 'great'.

Thankfully there seems to often be just one such permutation every morning.

I think it's going to be hot, but it could be cool.... Well, as has been said repeatedly in another place, the conditions for a repeat of '76 are in place if in less of the country than in April/May.

We should all be concerned about how our climate is being wrecked.

Apologies for singling out one P from the ENS, but that pales into insignificance compared to P13 in the 0z.

From 27 June to 3 July every day beats the current June record with maxes nationally:

37  37  37  39  42  43  39. 

Ridiculous but I've singled it out as I don't recall such a long run of such high temperatures modelled in the GFS before, nor so extreme by day and night.

There is a 6am London temp of 29 on 2 July and a midnight 40°C somewhere between Northampton and Peterborough.

GFS Op 00z; HP 1025mb over the N Sea by tomorrow confirming the SE-ly drift bringing in very warm air, and lasting to Sunday. Then the Atlantic takes over control of the trough lying down the W coast with LP 995mb Iceland switching winds into the west through to Fri 27th, unsettled in the N, dry and settled in the S which is more affected by HP near Spain. A section of the HP breaks off and moves to the N Sea Sun 29th with a very close match to tomorrow's chart. Again a probable hot drift from the S lasting a few days before LP to the NW brings back W-lies by Wed 2nd even NW-lies by Fri 4th.

ECM; agrees with GFS, but additionally throwing in a day's bump of HP embedded in the W-lies Thu 26th

GEM; keeps the heat for longer with slack pressure over Britain lasting from the weekend to Tue 22nd. Then the LP, nearer Greenland on this model, advances a trough of LP across England while pressure is relatively high over Scotland. This trough pulls back as by Fri 27th there is a ridge of HP from Spain to Norway, hot for the SE, strong SW-lies for the NW. Final chart for Sat28th looks as if the Atlantic will win.

GEFS: In the S, peak heat Sat 22nd, dropping off briefly before a revival Tue 25th to almost the same level supported by most ens members (including control but not op); then mean temp continuing about 4 or 5C above norm into July - op and control suggest another burst of heat Tue 1st but not  shown in many other runs. Perhaps a little rain Thu 26th but on the whole dry. Similar temp trends in the N, though a degree or two cooler relative to norm; small amounts of rain at any time esp in NW, and perhaps something heavier in early July.

30, 30, 28, 31, 30, 23, 23, 28, 31, 37, 37, 37, 39, 42, 43, 39 🙂 

To be fair I think it's already off today as I can't see it hitting 30C today. Although UKV gets to 29C and then 32C tomorrow.

It also aligns with the Met Office forecast of such a split with a tendency for even south eastern parts to become more unsettled at times in early July. 

The contrast in temps seems to be triggering the jet stream somewhat. 

Sooner or later a run like this will verify perhaps this year.  Scary stuff really. 

Fortunately ECM looking very flat and westerly mobile ,supported by its ens.  Still warm and dry for southern areas of course. But as it should be. Good summer useable weather.  Hopefully the heat on Fri/Sat is the worst of it this year!

It doesn't now look as though the upcoming hot spell later this week will be as long-lasting as quite a few of the model runs had been suggesting prior to yesterday. Just goes to show that even these days, we can never look many days ahead with anything even close to 100% certainty.

Yes and the temperatures not quite as extreme, perhaps maxing out at 33 or 34c in the SE. Seems to have been mainly the GFS that has been churning out these extreme charts whilst the other models have been showing more moderate outcomes. If the GFS had been showing extreme charts in the Winter time I'm sure it would have been dismissed and ridiculed on here.

As Beast said, lovely usable weather coming after the heat blast. mid 20's and sun is just right.

Edit: Dr Simon Lee just pointed out that GEFS land model sometimes overdries, which leads to overheating. TBH, I didn't know that was the reason. 

That looks average for me. 18 C in Edinburgh 😂

Yep the new king is in town and it's called AIFS 

GFS 6z max temps so far 28c, 31c, 29c, 32c 32c, 21c, 23c.

Quite the drop now